But what role will Peters choose to play?
As the new Luxon-led government prepares to take office, with the nation now waiting anxiously on what shape it will take, the big question is whether it can restore confidence so that the economy doesn’t sink into recession.
Already encouraging signs have been detected, reinforced by commodity price rises in October after they lifted the previous month from depressed levels.
Only this week, ANZ Bank chief economist Sharon Zollner was commenting on how the last few years had been, as she said, “a wild ride”.
GDP growth went off the charts when the lockdowns happened, and even now, the after-effects of the chaos of the Covid period continue to ripple through the economy. No wonder, she says, things are volatile.
“All the noise has not made it any easier for the Reserve Bank (or any other forecaster) to discern trends in a timely manner. But recent data confirms that monetary policy is working, with aggregate supply and demand coming back into balance, perhaps a little faster than we expected.
“Yet the inflation-fighting remains far from done… We expect the economy to continue to cool as a soft underbelly for domestic demand more than offsets the ongoing net exports recovery (with international tourism and education continuing to recover and import demand softening)”.
Almost certainly, Treasury reports being prepared for the incoming Finance Minister will be making the same points. Whether Treasury might also be urging the government to hold off a mini-budget until the economy is further along the recovery road is a moot point.
Some authorities think the first priority for the new Finance Minister is to curtail the wasteful spending the previous government had embarked on.
As the prime minister-in-waiting, Christopher Luxon has the initial task of sorting out the roles being sought by other members of the coalition. This is going to call for real diplomatic skills on Luxon’s part.
It has been suggested Winston Peters will be seeking to be the Treasurer, a role he played when a coalition partner with then Prime Minister Jim Bolger in the 1990’s.
That won’t be possible this time since Luxon has already committed to naming Nicola Willis as his Finance Minister.
Whether Peters might be satisfied with being deputy Prime Minister will no doubt be explored. Luxon will have other tricky demands from Peters: for example, the re-establishment of the Provincial Growth Fund, a channel to boost NZ First’s profile, but also one through which money is wasted. Such a fund would also clash with ACT’s goal of cutting government spending.
For government-watchers it will be something to watch as the relationship between Luxon and Peters evolves.
Will it be with apprehension? Or admiration?
Since it will be his swan song in a long, but some would say, rather spotty political career, might Peters seek to demonstrate he can be, after all—wait for it— a statesman?
Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton
GDP growth went off the charts when the lockdowns happened, and even now, the after-effects of the chaos of the Covid period continue to ripple through the economy. No wonder, she says, things are volatile.
“All the noise has not made it any easier for the Reserve Bank (or any other forecaster) to discern trends in a timely manner. But recent data confirms that monetary policy is working, with aggregate supply and demand coming back into balance, perhaps a little faster than we expected.
“Yet the inflation-fighting remains far from done… We expect the economy to continue to cool as a soft underbelly for domestic demand more than offsets the ongoing net exports recovery (with international tourism and education continuing to recover and import demand softening)”.
Almost certainly, Treasury reports being prepared for the incoming Finance Minister will be making the same points. Whether Treasury might also be urging the government to hold off a mini-budget until the economy is further along the recovery road is a moot point.
Some authorities think the first priority for the new Finance Minister is to curtail the wasteful spending the previous government had embarked on.
As the prime minister-in-waiting, Christopher Luxon has the initial task of sorting out the roles being sought by other members of the coalition. This is going to call for real diplomatic skills on Luxon’s part.
It has been suggested Winston Peters will be seeking to be the Treasurer, a role he played when a coalition partner with then Prime Minister Jim Bolger in the 1990’s.
That won’t be possible this time since Luxon has already committed to naming Nicola Willis as his Finance Minister.
Whether Peters might be satisfied with being deputy Prime Minister will no doubt be explored. Luxon will have other tricky demands from Peters: for example, the re-establishment of the Provincial Growth Fund, a channel to boost NZ First’s profile, but also one through which money is wasted. Such a fund would also clash with ACT’s goal of cutting government spending.
For government-watchers it will be something to watch as the relationship between Luxon and Peters evolves.
Will it be with apprehension? Or admiration?
Since it will be his swan song in a long, but some would say, rather spotty political career, might Peters seek to demonstrate he can be, after all—wait for it— a statesman?
Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton
No comments:
Post a Comment