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Tuesday, April 7, 2026

David Farrar: Murder data


I read an overseas article that cross-tabulated homicide data by ethnicity for both the victim and the killer. I thought this was interesting, so asked for NZ equivalent data. Sadly it was declined on privacy grounds, but they did provide the data without the cross-tabulation.

For those interested the breakdown by ethnicity for homicide victims for the last ten years is:
  1. Māori 35%
  2. European 27%
  3. Unknown 22%
  4. Pacific 6.8%
  5. Asian 3.5%
  6. Indian 3.1%
  7. Middle Eastern 1.5%
  8. African 0.5%
  9. Hispanic 0.1%
  10. Fijian 0.1%
And the breakdown for homicide offenders is:
  1. Māori 48%
  2. European 30%
  3. Unknown 1.4%
  4. Pacific 15.0%
  5. Asian 2.6%
  6. Indian 2.9%
  7. African 0.1%
  8. Hispanic 0.1%
Note that if you kill multiple people, you get counted once for each death, so the European total include 50+ counts for Tarrant.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.

3 comments:

Allen Heath said...

The proportions for one particular ethnicity (maori) are certainly skewed when proportional population representation is taken into account. Must be about time for colonisation to take another hit as a causative factor.

The Jones Boy said...

Farar's research simply mirrors the public knowledge that Māori are overrepresented at every stage in the criminal justice system.

Māori are 37% of people proceeded against by Police, 45% of people convicted, and 52% of people in prison.(Department of Justice own website). This is despite persons identifying as Māori being only approximately 15% of the New Zealand population.

There must be something deeply flawed in the Maori worldview that leads to these outcomes.

Some may call it Tikanga. But whatever you attribute it to, it's setting up a massive bow-wave that's restraining the growth of our economy and as a consequence, our Nation. It cannot be tolerated.

Right now the data suggests our measurable productivity gap is race-based. But why? If there's spare money to fund research into whether playing whale song at a Kauri tree will prevent Kauri die-back, then there has to be funding available to research why Maori do bad things. And no, institutional racism is not the answer. So lets see some reputable social science being performed here. Because much to the consternation of Hobson's Pledge, we are not all one people. But it would be helpful to know how much we differ.

Anonymous said...

Could it be that there is indeed useful scientific data that explains these differences, but under no circumstances is it permitted to be published?

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