Guest Post: How to Change Your Polling Overnight

A Guest Post by Danny Bright on GoodOil.

An open letter to Christopher Luxon. Here, at no cost to the taxpayer, are some things that could change everything almost overnight. You don’t need all of them. Pick three. Stand behind them. Mean them. And watch the polls respond.

Dear Mr Luxon

It seems nobody in your administration is telling you, or you’re just not listening to them, so let me have a try.

I have no idea who it is that has been encouraging you to do the regular posts and vignettes on social media but they really are not doing you any good. The last thing you need is another carefully rehearsed vignette for one of our ethnic communities, or another hard-hat, hi-viz vest photo opportunity at a building site nobody cares about.

Your polling is a disaster. Not because the electorate has suddenly fallen in love with Labour. Not because Chris Hipkins is setting the world alight with his genius. It is because you’re losing your own people, and you either can’t see it or you’re so mismanaged by those around you that none of you can see the wood for the trees.

You have seven months. There is still time. But not much.

Here, at no cost to the taxpayer, are some things that could change everything almost overnight. You don’t need all of them. Pick three. Stand behind them. Mean them. And watch the polls respond.

The Treaty and Co-governance. Just say what most of us are thinking.

This is the single most suppressed political grievance in New Zealand today. The Ardern Government accelerated it, sneaking pro-Māori language rules into every government department and official communication, and now unelected public servants continue to push co-governance into institutions that belong to all New Zealanders.

You promised to fix it. You haven’t.

We're not racists for saying this. We celebrate Māori culture as part of what makes New Zealand remarkable. But we are one people under one law, and co-governance is neither democratic nor fair. Say it. Mean it. Deliver clear commitments: one law for all New Zealanders, an end to race-based institutional privilege, and a rollback of the Ardern-era creep.

That alone, delivered with conviction, would shift your polls faster than anything else on this list.

Paris Accord: Time to Move On.

Withdraw from the Paris Agreement and redistribute every dollar saved directly into the health system. Do it intelligently - acknowledge that natural climate change is real and that New Zealand is a genuine environmental steward. Then state the obvious: we produce less than 0.2 per cent of global emissions. Net zero from New Zealand will make ZERO difference to the planet but the cost will cripple our economy. This is not denial - it is basic arithmetic. Take a stand for New Zealanders. We will applaud you for it.

Immigration: Listen to Us - Start Leading.

How many social media vignettes have you posted for immigrant communities celebrating their various religious festivals? We are a diverse society and we all know it. But your appearance in an assortment of national garbs visiting cultural groups is not becoming. To most of us it makes you look stupid for almost zero gain. The rest of us think ‘what a dork’ and get on with our lives. Your real constituency quietly moves further away.

The India trade deal - the one you haven’t released the details of - needs to come into the open completely, with immigration provisions suspended until New Zealanders know what they’re being signed up for. State plainly what most of us already believe: immigration works best when it prioritises cultural compatibility. That is not extremism. Countries that have ignored it are paying a steep social price. You’d have to be blind not to see that.

Wellington: Do What You Actually Promised.

You promised to reduce the public service. You haven’t. The Wellington bubble - ideologically captured, bloated and expensive - remains intact. Name the departments. State the numbers. Set the deadlines. Follow through. Voters who supported you on this feel conned. They’re not wrong. No need for new promises - just deliver on the old ones.

The Economy: Actions, Not Slogans.

Your slogan - Fixing the Basics, Building the Future - is platitudinous nonsense. Your electorate has to tighten its belt while government spending continues unchecked. Stop spending money that doesn’t immediately benefit New Zealanders. No grants to other nations. Commit to living within the budget. When you address cost of living, be honest that it’s been harder than expected - then name the specific actions you’re actually taking.

Energy: Build Something

Not wind farms or solar - the world is waking up to the realities of those while our rivers pump millions of litres straight into the ocean. Announce a major hydro or equivalent energy infrastructure project. Named. Committed. Underway. Energy prices are breaking households and businesses. Regulatory frameworks don’t put money back in people’s pockets. More generation will. Show us you have a long-term vision and a short-term plan.

Supermarkets: Go Get Aldi and Lidl.

Stop commissioning reports about grocery competition. Go and get some. Embrace Winston Peters’ push on supermarket competition, sign a coalition agreement on it today, then send a selected group from both parties to talk with Aldi and Lidl immediately. Offer tax incentives and a clear runway through regulations. It won’t fix prices overnight - everyone knows that - but it signals a prime minister willing to actually fight for everyday people rather than manage them with committees.

Coalition: Stop Speculating - Start Committing.

Sit down with your coalition partners now and agree in principle that these three parties will form the next government. Give the electorate a clear signal: after November, a unified second term with specific policies already agreed. No more speculation about who will side with whom. Do it. Watch your polling soar.

Law and Order: Brief and Blunt.

Police should police, not fill in forms all day. Keep the cops on the beat. Pull the judges into line - their role is to enforce the laws parliament passes, not show reflexive sympathy for offenders over victims. The law-abiding majority are tired of being an afterthought in their own justice system. Say it once. Mean it.

Prime Minister, select three items from this list and make them your own. It’s what we’re waiting to hear - that you understand and will do what we put you there to do.

We’re a forgiving mob and we’ll give you another chance, but only if you show us what you stand for. Right now, we have no idea – and you haven’t delivered on what you promised.

Your constituents are not asking for a perfect leader. They're asking for one who is actually on their side. Right now, they’re not sure you are.

Prove them wrong. You have only seven months.