National’s leadership team have clearly come out of yesterday’s caucus meeting with very clear instructions: get the National Party vote back off New Zealand First. And they’ve come out hard.
It started with Nicola Willis on Mike Hosking just after 7am, warning that Winston Peters might pick Labour after the next election. The attack from her on that show was so pointed I was actually surprised - because these two are mates. They drink together, they work together, they’re on the same floor as each other in the Beehive.
But then, five hours later, the Prime Minister is on The Country with Jamie Mackay, saying almost exactly the same thing. Which tells you Nicola didn’t just react in the heat of the moment, coming off the high of what happened in caucus. These are the lines they’ve decided to go out with.
They have decided to attack New Zealand First. The question is: what took them so long?
Because this is what they needed to do months ago, when it became obvious they were bleeding votes to New Zealand First. That is what’s happening here. New Zealand First - and Winston - are going up and the National Party is going down because National voters are shifting across to New Zealand First.
Right now, 52 percent of Winston’s supporters voted National at the last election.
This is exactly the right strategy Nicola Willis and Chris Luxon should be taking - because it’s true. There is a risk that New Zealand First goes with Labour. Even though Winston says it ain’t going to happen, there is a risk.
He’s done it before. In 1996 he told voters to help him put, quote, “Jim Bolger in opposition where he belongs”. And who did he pick after that election? He picked Jim Bolger.
Of course, Winston’s not going to admit he’s open to Labour - even if he is - because then he can’t rely on stealing all of those National Party voters. They’re not going to go to him if they think he’s going to put Jacinda’s lot back in charge.
This is exactly the attack Luxon and Willis need to launch on New Zealand First if they want to keep their jobs by keeping the polling up.
So let’s see if it works. I reckon it might.
Watch the next poll. Watch for National going up and New Zealand First either going down or plateauing. That will tell us whether the fightback is working.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show.
19 comments:
I see Moodys downgrading the outlook for NZ to negative. They must’ve taken into account Luxon not getting rolled this week!
Too late and too little - National is woke under Luxon and unless & until they tackle that elephant head on, NZ First will continue to siphon white middle class votes from National.
A clear opposition to maorification, a cessation of multi million donations to Insurrection Propoganda and Coordination Centres (marae), a firm counter to co governance, a reversion to English names, to democartic process in Councils, hugely reduced te reo twaddle etc and Natoinal will recover votes from NZ First who few entirely trust in these areas.
What a terrible way to treat voters intelligence. Instead of saying "We will absolutely get rid of all co-governance" they say "NZF might go with Labour". NZF voters are already watching out for signs of the latter and will vote accordingly. I suspect most would go with ACT now, not National. The general comments I am reading everywhere is that ex-National voters won't be returning to the party.
As an aside, MSM opinion writers need to become proper journalists again and do some actual research. The articles are now so flippant as to be irrelevant.
NZF is not the 'enemy', the opposition is. Any bleeding of support to NZF is because National have failed to do what it purported to do and deal with co-governance. They need to do some root cause analysis (it is not hard), stop with the hubris and focus on what really matters to NZers.
The Nat's under Luxon have cooked their goose. Too much ideology, not enough science. Moreover, they've been this way since at least 2008. In my view there is only one party displaying any principles and even then they've faltered with Van Velden's mumbo jumbo Tikanga nonsense
Nat. MPs - worse than ever thought possible. Self servers.
Doesn't anyone close to Luxon read BV, have the temerity to point out to him why he is losing support ?
The problem is Luxon. However, it is too late to roll him. There a lot of good MPs in National.
Agreement with Anonymous 7.05 - too little, too late.
We can be sure that ACT will never side with Labour, as Winston has.
Never forget 2017. Winston is a traitor.
Winston Peters can not be trusted. David Seymour and ACT are the only hope, it seems, to get the Maorification debacle sorted.
I am reminded every day on the train as to how Luxon and National have let us down on this issue.
The countries passports now have Maori first, the reminders are everywhere.
That is where Nationals problem lies.
Janine would you say it is time to drop the newstalk ZB opinion pieces from the breaking views feeds?
Are National now completely stupid? It certainly looks it. They are where they are on the polls AND will get worse because of their own inadequacies. Instead of acknowledgement that their problem is caused by their inaction on a number of fronts, their less than stellar performance managing the economy all from an angle of a softer squiggee - please like us National led by a PM who has no idea what he's doing, we get the attack on their coalition partner.
It seems to me they'd rather sink the whole ship than acknowledge their own failures and address them. Morons!
National need to urgently have a think about why this occurring?
Being Labour lite hasn’t won them any labour voters…
Plus people remember the platform the were elected on & compare that to their effectiveness at delivering …not so great
To anon 11.22. When I read the zb comments I feel they don't tell us anything. I know people say they are just opinions but "How many opinions do we need?" I mean, we are now going to Duncan Garner, The Platform or suchlike to get actual information.
Case in point: DG scoops the interview and zb merely re-posts with a few opinion points. They do the same with CNN news(which is usually incorrect anyway". So they are actually several days or hours later than the independents.
Take Heathers last paragraph: "National will go up, and NZF will either go down or plateau in the next poll"... a very unhelpful and trivial statement.
With all the "written" rhetoric here and across other media platforms that we access, for both news, interviews and being able to place comments, I have sympathy for those who make valid points and as else where, as I have done, I again ask this 'question'-
If either Labour or National and sadly for many Kiwis NZ1st -are not an acceptable choice to vote for, then who do we vote for?
There have been 'attempts' across past years by people to establish a Political Party - some had credibility, others did not, and the sad downside, every time this happened New Zealanders always revert to "kind" and vote either for Labour or National.
If you look at ACT, who started the Party, where they went across the years, to where they are now - they very much like One-Nation (Australia) there, but not really the kind of Party that Kiwi's support.
Therefore I contend - "That MMP is now a waste of time (look at the stupidities over past years with sham parties) and we should revert back to a 2 Party system.
If you do not believe me, then -
"Why do all current Political Poles only present results of either Labour or National current status (with hand waving at lessor parties) and who is the favoured 'milkshake' of the moment".
Anon 3:17
I agree with you that MMP is a disaster. What it produces is coalitions which contain minor parties (like the Greens and Maori) that do not care about the welfare of the country as a whole, and because they are part of a governing coalition, they have a power disproportionate to their number of supporters in the general public. What we also end up with is coalition partners fighting it out AFTER the election and the coalition as a whole with no coherent plan/vision for their term in power. Under first past the post, the party that wins will have sorted out the all the various options/views among its members BEFORE the election so it can campaign on a clear set of goals/vision and do what is necessary to make that vision happen through Parliament (and slap down activist judges and unelected bureaucrats who refuse to implement the program). ABOLISH MMP.
NB.... way back when Winston finally... after weeks.... w e e k s... of negotiation with Bill English, it became impossible to resolve. Only then did Peters go with Labour... not his choice... English was the trouble maker and he has run free!!! Time to fess up Bill. It was personal dislike..... and petty..
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