Iran backed down with 90 minutes to spare. The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened and they will go to Pakistan for ceasefire talks in two days.
Now, some are arguing this is yet another case of Trump chickening out - but it isn’t. He got what he wanted, didn’t he? You accuse him of chickening out only if he doesn’t get something. If he gets what he wanted, then the tactic worked.
And what has he had to give up to get it? Nothing. The only thing he’s had to give up is his plan to attack - which may or may not have been bluster anyway because it’s Donald Trump.
Iran, meanwhile, had been refusing to go to Pakistan for peace talks. It would not agree to anything other than a permanent end to the fighting and wouldn’t accept a temporary ceasefire. It was holding the strait to ransom. Today, it has had to give up on all three positions.
That does not mean this is an outright victory for Trump. Take a look at Iran’s 10 demands. There is no way the US is going to agree to that list.
Pulling its military out of the Middle East is simply not going to happen. The US has bases all over the region - Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
It’s also hard to see the world agreeing to Iran’s plan to continue tolling oil ships to the tune of $2 million a pop.
What that means is that this is far from over for Donald Trump. He can’t accept those terms. If Iran is able to set up a shipping toll booth and make money at will, he will end this bombing campaign with Iran in a stronger position than when he started six weeks ago.
In fact, he can’t claim any real victory if he walks away with the Revolutionary Guard still in charge - still able to create the same chaos it has for decades.
Today, he can probably claim he won the battle. That would be fair - especially if the oil that’s been held up for weeks does start flowing through the strait in the next 14 days.
But claiming that he’s won the war? Not even close.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show. This article was sourced from Newstalk ZB.
2 comments:
Won the battle? Wasn’t the strait open before the USA started firing off missiles? So things are back to how they were before that point, but more unstable. Anyone that sees this as a win is a very confused individual.
Well the strait has already been shut again. Which victory is HDPA talking about out in her article.
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