We've had one poll last night with the left-bloc winning.
If that case were to eventuate, it probably wouldn't eventuate in the way it's being reported.
New Zealand First would step in to rescue Labour from Te Pati Māori and soften the power of the Greens.
If there wasn't enough support on the right to form a government, you can't tell me Winston wouldn't do a deal with his devil to keep the left honest.
Back to Luxon and the leadership.
He's had a bad poll. But there have been plenty of late with the right keeping the Treasury benches.
That's why most of his cabinet keeps his support. That and the fact nobody else at the round table seems confident enough they'd actually do a better job and improve those numbers.
Until it's clear not just in one poll, but a trend of polls, that these guys wouldn't be part of a cabinet because they wouldn't have the numbers to form one in the first place, then the leadership won't change.
There's still plenty of time before election day, and a lot will change by then too.
Jacinda didn't need long to turn transform Little's vote into enough support to seize power.
This idea that all must be decided this Tuesday or next, before Luxon's trip to Singapore, ahead of the budget that follows it, is a red herring.
Caucus would be making a decision without the enough time to gather the facts, and without confidence in a decent replacement.
Ryan Bridge is a New Zealand broadcaster who has worked on many current affairs television and radio shows. He currently hosts Newstalk ZB's Early Edition - where this article was sourced.
4 comments:
So...the MPs' deadly game. The people do not count after the initial vote. Get rid of MMP.
Luxon wouldn't even be in awful position if National had done what they said they'd do. For too long the people of this country have been forced apart incrementally by politics of division, one is Maori who no longer even have to be voted in to control councils and the rest don't. The acrimony and resentment this is causing is deep and damaging. And worsening. NZ will keep going backwards whilst this failed attempt of ethno nationalism and apartheid keeps going. We will keep going backwards economically and more and more people will give up and seek far better pastures. Rule based in race does not work and it's never worked, ever
But as much as Christopher Luxon wants to keep his job, he does not have any fortitude whatsoever to deal with this ruinous path we are on. So he may as well give up and hopefully whoever has eyes on the PM's job, realises they have this address this problem now.
I can't see Winston keeping anyone honest.
I can't see anyone waiting in the wings with the Jacinda ability.
Until we can find a way to eliminate political party rule in govt we will continue to see the remorseless downward slide of this country. We must, surely, now see that the present system is well past its use-by date. It contains all the worst elements of human behaviour, and very few indeed of the best. As H L Mencken once noted, if Congress was selected by ballot from the first 2000 names in the NY phone book a much better form of govt would be most likely.
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