Having got the product warning out of the way, the TVNZ-Verian poll has a good record of predicting election results, with one proviso. The polls have repeatedly misjudged minor-party support.
My pick for the party most at risk of missing the 5% threshold is TOP, whose strongest support comes from young men, notoriously unreliable voters.
Labour’s 27% is disastrous. Chris Hipkins’ personal polling is no better.
I think Labour is collateral damage from the Greens’ association with gangs. Labour supporters are shocked.
National’s four-point rise to 32% is significant. More significant is the possibility that voters are switching from Labour to National.
Voters crossing the political divide change elections.
But the most remarkable finding concerns ACT and NZ First.
For 30 years under MMP, being a junior partner in a formal coalition has been electorally disastrous.
Yet ACT is polling 11%, compared with 8.6% in 2023. NZ First, despite dropping two points, is polling 8%, compared with 6.1% at the last election.
Both coalition partners are ahead of their last election results. That is extraordinary.
National remains six points below its 2023 result. But another finding offers encouragement.
A major study of 84 European elections found that increasing consumer confidence was associated with stronger electoral performance by governing parties. There seems to be an association in New Zealand too.
Back in April, 52% of New Zealanders expected the economy to worsen. Just 26% expected improvement.
Last night, 43% expected improvement and just 21% expected the economy to worsen over the next 12 months.
A remarkable turnaround.
Economic optimism does not decide elections. But it matters.
Has National timed its run just right?
The Honourable Richard Prebble CBE is a former member of the New Zealand Parliament. Initially a member of the Labour Party, he joined the newly formed ACT New Zealand party under Roger Douglas in 1996, becoming its leader from 1996 to 2004. This article was sourced HERE
Labour’s 27% is disastrous. Chris Hipkins’ personal polling is no better.
I think Labour is collateral damage from the Greens’ association with gangs. Labour supporters are shocked.
National’s four-point rise to 32% is significant. More significant is the possibility that voters are switching from Labour to National.
Voters crossing the political divide change elections.
But the most remarkable finding concerns ACT and NZ First.
For 30 years under MMP, being a junior partner in a formal coalition has been electorally disastrous.
Yet ACT is polling 11%, compared with 8.6% in 2023. NZ First, despite dropping two points, is polling 8%, compared with 6.1% at the last election.
Both coalition partners are ahead of their last election results. That is extraordinary.
National remains six points below its 2023 result. But another finding offers encouragement.
A major study of 84 European elections found that increasing consumer confidence was associated with stronger electoral performance by governing parties. There seems to be an association in New Zealand too.
Back in April, 52% of New Zealanders expected the economy to worsen. Just 26% expected improvement.
Last night, 43% expected improvement and just 21% expected the economy to worsen over the next 12 months.
A remarkable turnaround.
Economic optimism does not decide elections. But it matters.
Has National timed its run just right?
The Honourable Richard Prebble CBE is a former member of the New Zealand Parliament. Initially a member of the Labour Party, he joined the newly formed ACT New Zealand party under Roger Douglas in 1996, becoming its leader from 1996 to 2004. This article was sourced HERE
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