Perhaps Luxon knows something they don’t.
Political parties commission much more sophisticated polling that reveals who their supporters are and what might change their minds.
When I led ACT, all the New Zealand polling companies were already contracted. We were forced to commission an American company. They were far better than any New Zealand pollster.
National employs Britain’s Sancrox Political Advisory. Luxon says he only looks at the party’s internal polls that have been analysed overseas using specialist skills.
I suspect National knows far more about TOP voters than Qiulae Wong does.
What we know from public polling is revealing.
A Talbot Mills poll in July found that 23% of TOP supporters had voted National in 2023, compared with 18% who had voted Labour.
A September Roy Morgan poll found TOP’s strongest support among younger men.
Any party relying on young men for support is in trouble. They are hard to enrol and even harder to get to vote.
Given TOP’s possible kingmaker role, I would be surprised if Sancrox Political Advisory had not conducted focus groups of intending TOP voters.
An experienced moderator asks questions like:
“Would you still vote TOP if Luxon ruled out a deal?”
Suppose former National voters say no, but former Labour voters say yes.
Suddenly Luxon’s stance makes sense.
National wins back voters while TOP retains former Labour voters.
When TOP fails to reach 5% and wins no electorate seat, its party votes do not count towards the allocation of seats.
What commentators regard as Luxon’s inexplicable political blunder could be a calculated election-winning strategy.
But then again, perhaps Luxon just doesn’t understand MMP.
The Honourable Richard Prebble CBE is a former member of the New Zealand Parliament. Initially a member of the Labour Party, he joined the newly formed ACT New Zealand party under Roger Douglas in 1996, becoming its leader from 1996 to 2004. This article was sourced HERE
National employs Britain’s Sancrox Political Advisory. Luxon says he only looks at the party’s internal polls that have been analysed overseas using specialist skills.
I suspect National knows far more about TOP voters than Qiulae Wong does.
What we know from public polling is revealing.
A Talbot Mills poll in July found that 23% of TOP supporters had voted National in 2023, compared with 18% who had voted Labour.
A September Roy Morgan poll found TOP’s strongest support among younger men.
Any party relying on young men for support is in trouble. They are hard to enrol and even harder to get to vote.
Given TOP’s possible kingmaker role, I would be surprised if Sancrox Political Advisory had not conducted focus groups of intending TOP voters.
An experienced moderator asks questions like:
“Would you still vote TOP if Luxon ruled out a deal?”
Suppose former National voters say no, but former Labour voters say yes.
Suddenly Luxon’s stance makes sense.
National wins back voters while TOP retains former Labour voters.
When TOP fails to reach 5% and wins no electorate seat, its party votes do not count towards the allocation of seats.
What commentators regard as Luxon’s inexplicable political blunder could be a calculated election-winning strategy.
But then again, perhaps Luxon just doesn’t understand MMP.
The Honourable Richard Prebble CBE is a former member of the New Zealand Parliament. Initially a member of the Labour Party, he joined the newly formed ACT New Zealand party under Roger Douglas in 1996, becoming its leader from 1996 to 2004. This article was sourced HERE
11 comments:
Luxon's strategy makes sense to me. There were a lot of conservative voters who voted for NZF in 2017, particularly the elderly, who then complained about them going with Labour. It was the same in 1996 when many of NZF's voters were Maori, expecting them to form a Coalition with Labour. They wanted a Labour government in a new form, but ended up getting National. Luxon is making it clear that by voting TOP you won't get a new pragmatic centralist government that stimulates the economy, but simply the same old Labour, Greens, TPM far left agenda that will be like Jacinda on steroids.
Christopher Luxon is smart on this one. If I was contemplating voting National, I would definitely change my vote if TOP was involved. Their policies are as absurd as the Greens to me. So, you see, each voter has their own specific ideas.
TOP is left .Its policies reflect that.
'perhaps Luxon just doesn’t understand MMP.' Perhaps you didn't need the MMP part.
Just asking, can anyone confirm :
Hipkins girlfriend is close to the top of the TOP list ?
That one of the people who wrote the He Puapua document is in the top 5 ?
Read today’s revelation from TOP founder Gareth Morgan - says it all really .
Vindicates Luxon’s stance.
Anon @ 9.43: "Hipkins girlfriend is close to the top of the TOP list ?"
Not that I can see. But I've read somewhere that she's involved in developing party policy.
"That one of the people who wrote the He Puapua document is in the top 5 ?"
This is true. Her name is Kayla Kingdon-Bebb. She's also a candidate in the Wellington Bays electorate.
October 22, 2026 at 9:43 AM
Toni Grace(Hipkins fiancé) is Ian Lees Galloways business partner. Hes running the show at Opportunity. Wong is just the person that fronts it.
Number 4 on the list is Kayla Kingdon-Bebb.
She is an author of He PuaPua.
There's many of their candidates have been involved in indigenous rights.
Read their manifesto. It reads like the Greens or TPM.
Hold on to your hats folks
The plot thickens
No4 Kayla Kingdon-Bebb’s (Rosemary’s) baby - He Pua Pua has just been reborn in the form of the dodgy deal just signed off between Gisborne District Council and a select few Southern East Coast Iwi groups.
It effectively hands control of the Tairawhiti fresh water reserves to Maoridom and by so doing, denying majority access to benefits that might arise from developments planned for land owned exclusively by the privileged few.
It is He Pua Pua in drag and should be stopped before similar developments are allowed in other parts of the country.
Yes it is very scarry stuff isnt it, with Opportunity. Sadly many ill informed voters simply like the new fresh ‘face’ of Q Wong but dont realise the Trojan Horse lurking under the surface
TOP who advertised for a party leader on seek...really!.
Can anyone name one other TOP list candidate.
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