NZCPR Podcast: The Radicalisation of Parliament

The new Parliament is one of the most radial ever elected.

Last week we saw a Green MP leading an anti-Semitic crowd in a war chant to destroy Israel.

And just days earlier both Green party leaders promised to amplify opposition to ACT’s policy to hold a referendum about the Treaty principles.

Heather du Plessis-Allan: Coalition talks are hurting Luxon's reputation

It's starting to get a bit awkward with how long these coalition negotiations are taking, especially now that Chris Luxon’s warned us we might not get a deal until the end of this week.

These talks are about to become the second longest set of coalition talks in the history of MMP.

Former Green Party MP Gareth Hughes went back through all of the elections and counted how long it took from each election date to the end of the coalition talks.

Jeffrey McNeill: The RMA is dead, long live the RMA

Why NZ’s resource laws won’t change overnight after this election

RMA – three letters that have struck fear into a generation of farmers, developers, politicians and anyone building a house. Or so legend would have it.

Whatever its original goal of promoting sustainable management of natural and physical resources, the Resource Management Act (RMA) has long been dogged by claims of unnecessary and inefficient rules that strangle innovation and progress.

Adrian Beaumont: NZ election 2023 - Current polls

Combined poll trends now show a clear rightward shift since June

With exactly one month until New Zealand’s general election, all major polls are now showing a clear rightward trend since June.

With some recent polls showing New Zealand First on or above the 5% MMP threshold, the only real wildcard at this point is whether the party will be returned to parliament after October 14.

Peter Dunne: Impact of Rugby World Cup on Election 2023

From this coming weekend election billboards will be going up all over the country as candidates and parties seek to promote themselves and their messages to voters in the lead-up to the General Election on October 14. Early voting will begin on October 2 and, if the trends of the previous two elections are maintained, most people will cast their votes before election day.

Peter Dunne: Election 2023

Seasoned politicians and political observers follow the opinion poll ratings of the various parties in a way others might consider obsessive. But they never get too hung up on any specific poll result, focusing instead on the trend of a series of polls over time upon which to base their assessments.

Even then, the poring over the entrails of the various parties' poll ratings runs secondary to the attention they pay to one other important poll figure. The "is the country on the right or wrong track" question is considered to be the far more accurate reflection of the real political mood of the country, and therefore the best guide to the likely outcome of the next election.

Brian Easton: The Economic Runup To The Election.

The Treasury released its budget economic forecasts. What do they say about the economy over the next four months?

Let me begin me with an irritation. One post-budget headline was ‘Treasury optimistic over recession risk in Budget 2023'. Treasury being optimistic is almost an oxymoron. They fire down the centre.

It is true that Treasury has lifted its forecast of economic activity (GDP) a little since its December 2022 exercise, reflecting stronger migration and tourism and the rebuild from the cyclones. Even so, it expects GDP per capita to fall fractionally between the June 2023 and June 2024 years. The next year is going to be tough, with some quickening of economic activity in the middle of 2024.

Karl du Fresne: An early prediction for 2023

We’re more than two years out from the next general election, but already I’m prepared to make a bold (or perhaps foolhardy – take your pick) forecast.

My prediction is that Labour will lose most, if not all, of the provincial seats it picked up last year. Many of those electorates broke with precedent by voting Labour, giving New Zealand its first decisive majority-led government of the MMP era, but on present trends they are likely to revert to the historical norm in 2023.

The 2020 election result was anomalous because of the exceptional circumstances. Not only had Jacinda Ardern made a powerful impact with her handling of the Christchurch mosque massacres and the Covid-19 crisis (at least initially), but National was in turmoil.

Faced with having to choose between a personable young politician in charge of a government that seemed to know what it was doing and a rival party that couldn’t agree even on a leader, voters logically opted for the former.

But here we are, just eight months down the track, and already the picture looks very different. National is still fragmented, ineffectual and apparently demoralised, but in the meantime Labour's wheels have started to fall off and could roll right over the re-election chances of MPs who benefited from the provincial switch to Labour in 2020.

Clive Bibby: A plan for re-election

During the last election campaign, l had the good fortune to ask the Leader of the National Party, the Hon. Judith Collins a question during her visit to the Williams family property north east of Gisborne. I was impressed with her reply then as l have been with most of her responses during her tenure as the National Party leader.

Like many of our friends and colleagues, my wife and l are very supportive of her attempts to change the topic of conversation leading up to the next campaign.

It is important that the Opposition Leader is able to do so because it is difficult to challenge a “one trick pony” like the current Prime Minister when she is not being forced by a sycophantic media to step outside her comfort zone and answer for her party’s inept performance during the last 4 years - at least where the subject matter is anything other than the COVID pandemic.