Ryan Bridge: We need more positivity

It's Friday huddle, pep talk time.

New Zealand, we're going to need our number-8 wire, positive, can-do, problem solver attitude now more than ever.

Air New Zealand's in the doldrums, Trump's at war in the Middle East, oil's chocked up, Xi's talking about Taiwan again.

Matt Pottinger & Liza Tobin: Resisting Xi’s Designs in the Year of the (Trojan) Horse

At the US-China summit, Trump must reject any ploys that would weaken America.

American officials heading to Beijing this week have said their goal is stability in the US-China relationship. But as Washington signals its desire for calm, Beijing has spent the weeks before the May 14–15 summit sharpening its leverage: demanding Meta unwind its acquisition of AI startup Manus, tightening its grip on rare earth exports, and codifying its right to punish any firm that complies with US sanctions and export controls. Beijing is fighting for technological supremacy over the United States, a struggle Chinese leader Xi Jinping aptly calls “the main battlefield.”

Clive Bibby: “You will know them by their fruits”

It would be a mistake to assume my use of scripture in this column is an indication of a wide knowledge of biblical texts. Sadly, that is not the case in this instance. I wish it were. 

In fact l had to look it up in order to make sure l had the right verse.

However, l am pleased that l did because, as l suspected, the quote uses only a few wise words to describe the appalling behaviour of people who are abusing the position of influence they occupy throughout the western world. They need to be exposed!

Penn Raine: They’re listening to us

In a recent interview Mark Mitchell was asked about our police force having special lessons to recognise hate speech. The two examples the public has seen from the teaching module, ‘Kiwi not iwi’, and ‘There are only two genders’, give us an idea of the sinister direction of the forces lining up against wrong think.

Disaffected police whistle blowers who hold  the odd view that they would be more useful going after drug lords, fraudsters, and murderers, have said there also exists a ‘hate hub’ where people who have hurt feelings can lodge a complaint. Wrong speakers can then expect to have their social media accounts scrutinised, phone records sought and to be interviewed with a close focus on their use of pronouns.

Where this might go next is a mystery because there are no laws against offending people. Not yet.

Barend Vlaardingerbroek: Musings from Beirut – paying $35 for a pound of butter

The catastrophic loss of the value of a currency is not an unknown phenomenon in world history.

The Chinese experienced a period of hyperinflation when they first started printing money. People taking bag-fulls of near-worthless money to buy essential groceries in 1920s Germany is legendary. The Zimbabwe Dollar went the same way many years later – the Reserve Bank stopped calculating the inflation rate once it topped 250 million percent.

The Lebanese Lira, or Lebanese Pound (international code ‘LBP’, local abbreviation ‘LL’) first ran into big trouble during the civil war when it plummeted from LL4 to the US dollar to, eventually, around LL4,000. Colleagues here have told me how they literally saw 99.9% of their savings being wiped out. It explains why so many of them stayed on after retirement age.

Clive Bibby: The hypocrisy, unreliability and arrogance of the European Community

At least Macron got something right this week. He claimed NATO was a spent force.

I'm not sure whether his message was for European, British, or the American populace or simply for home consumption but whatever, it was a timely comment, albeit long overdue.

For all his failings, Trump has demonstrated a keen eye for identifying where the USA's best interests lie and, as he has been saying for some time, the only alliances that should be retained are those that accept there are obligations associated with membership.

Stephanie Perrin: Keeping an eye on Asian politics

Investors are keenly watching for any political changes or policies that may affect markets as well as specific industries or companies. Whilst domestically, the focus has been firmly on New Zealand politics over the last few months, the Milford investment team have also been following political events in the wider Asia Pacific region.

Having recently returned from a research trip to Hong Kong and Tokyo, and with the recent week-long Congress of the Communist Party of China and Japan’s snap election, I thought it timely to share some thoughts on the two countries. Despite being at opposite ends of the economic growth spectrum, both China and Japan have their sights set firmly on growth, albeit implementing pro-growth policy in slightly different ways.

David Skilling: What can we learn from the Greeks?

Two Greeks have been in the news again recently.  The first, Yanis Varoufakis, was the Finance Minister during the depths of the Greek crisis.  He has just published another book, attracting celebrity endorsements, apportioning blame to many for the continuing agonies in Greece.  FT columnist Martin Wolf commented charitably on his book, and fellow columnist Wolfgang Munchau remarkably suggested that the Brexiters could learn from Greece.

Few emerge from the Greek crisis looking good, including senior Ministers in the Syriza government.  Playing chicken, and railing against austerity and Germany, may be good fun, but it did little to address Greece’s underlying challenges. Greece has a debt problem, but the core issue is that Greece is deeply uncompetitive.  Even debt relief and a lower cost structure (or in extremis, a depreciated currency outside the Eurozone), is unlikely to be sufficient for the Greek economy to perform better on a sustained basis.

David Skilling: A busy week for globalisation

Globalisation is not dead, but it is definitely changing.  And from Asia to Europe and the US, this past week has highlighted that the transition to a genuinely multipolar set of arrangements is gathering pace.

This process has been underway for some time, of course, and partly reflects fundamentals.  As Asia rises, it is unsurprising that it will increasingly shape the rules of the game.  And there is an increasingly regional shape to the global economy (a lesson that the UK has chosen to overlook).  But the adoption of a more inward-looking ‘America First’ stance is accelerating the transition to a multipolar world with overlapping, potentially competing groupings.

Karl du Fresne: A puzzling departure from normal practice

Is there any more intractable issue in international affairs than that of Israel and Palestine? Offhand, I can’t think of any. It’s tricky for a whole lot of reasons. One is that the competing claims of the two sides, Israel and the Palestinians, both have weight.

The Jews, having suffered centuries in exile, mostly in countries where they experienced relentless discrimination and persecution, have a right to a homeland where they can feel safe and secure. But the Palestinians feel aggrieved because to provide that Jewish homeland, they were displaced from land that they regarded as theirs.

Brian Gaynor: US protest vote has echoes elsewhere

Donald Trump’s election, and the recent UK Brexit vote, demonstrates that there is considerable dissatisfaction with the political and business establishments in a number of countries.

A large percentage of the US and UK middle class, particularly white males outside the major cities, believe the system is rigged and they don’t have a voice.

New Zealand is fortunate because our MMP electoral system gives minorities a voice. 

Frank Newman: Tourism shines in nervous times

It's been a tough week internationally and these are nervous times for those with their life savings in the sharemarket. The main problem is China.

Last month I wrote China's bubble has burst. Share prices had collapsed 30% in a matter of weeks and the Chinese authorities had imposed a raft of regulations to restrict supply and poured in billions of dollars to boost demand for shares. It had an immediate effect but prices are now back where they were last month and threatening to go lower. The problem for the Chinese government is that while they are putting bucket loads of money into the share market to support prices, high net worth individuals and foreigners are reducing their risk exposure by taking it out.

Barend Vlaardingerbroek from Lebanon: Russia – the phoenix rises

The king is dead. Long live the king! – Trad.

If ever an episode in history was easy to draft the script for, it was the accession of the newly independent state of Crimea to the Russian Federation. Did I hear someone say ‘annexation’? Not on your Nelly! 

First, there was a coup in Kiev and the president had to make a run for it, leaving behind an illegitimate ‘provisional government’, i.e. no Ukrainian government at all. Next, Russia exercised its well-established customary right of protective jurisdiction over its kith and kin in the Crimea. Next, over 90% of the people there signalled through a referendum that they wanted to return to the motherland from which they had been wrenched 60 years earlier. Where’s the problem?