President-elect Donald Trump has not demonstrated a fondness for the United Nations (UN). During his first term, he pulled out of the United Nations Human Rights Council because it operated to attack rather than preserve human rights. There is little to recommend the UN for anything more than an opportunity for international diplomats to sit and chat among themselves.
In the worst case, UN organizations actively work for the enemy. – most recently, the Iran-backed Hamas terrorists. The UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees stands accused of actively supporting and collaborating with Hamas’s murderous rampage through southern Israel on October 7, 2023.
The World Will View Trump Through a UN Lens
However, what the world, with a consolidated view, believes about President Trump’s second term will likely be manifested through the United Nations.
Before the Trump 47 team has even darkened the door of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the liberal media believes it has the new administration figured out. “One thing is clear: Those who thought or hoped the first Trump term was an aberration were wrong. Overnight, America looks like a different kind of superpower: more isolationist and less predictable,” asserts The New York Times. What could be more inaccurate? When it came to exerting the image of a superpower, Trump 45 was anything but an isolationist.
Unpredictability as a foreign policy is an asset. If friends and foes alike can anticipate the US geopolitical and national security actions and responses to world events successfully, a significant capability in keeping America safe is lost. During most of its history, America has enjoyed being unpredictable, and that quality has been a deterrent to enemies pressing the envelope of threatening behavior to the US.
Getting NATO countries to pay 2% of GDP for defense, which each country committed to, is not isolationist. Engaging with North Korea’s President Kim Jong Un when no other US president did is not isolationist. Using the US military might to reach out and kill Iran’s chief purveyor of terrorism, Qassem Soleimani, is anything but isolationist. If a label is needed to help people understand President-elect Trump, it would more appropriately be something like “pragmatic populist.” He has demonstrated his desire to do what is in the best interest of the American people. However, he’s only interested in pursuing initiatives that work.
President-elect Trump has made his worldview crystal clear. He has and will champion the interests of the American people over any other agenda. No one should be confused on that score.
For most of recent history, the US has been a primary contributor to the UN and has received very little benefit in return. That simply doesn’t fit Trump’s America First vision, and his relationship with the United Nations will reflect that. Reuters, in its analysis of what a Trump presidency portends for the UN, offered:
“The United Nations has been planning for the possible return of Donald Trump and the cuts to US funding and engagement with [the] world body that are likely to come with his second term as president…Among the top concerns at the UN are whether the United States will decide to contribute less money to the world body and withdraw from key multinational institutions and agreements, including the world Health Organization and the Paris climate agreement.”
Trump’s perspective on the UN is not an isolated point of view. A September 2024 Pew Research poll showed that “Americans’ views of the UN have turned more negative over the past year as well. Today, 52% of US adults see the UN in a positive light, down 5 percentage points from 2023…In other countries, opinions of the UN have declined over a longer period.” The most likely foreign policy position by the Trump 47 administration will be more of a cost-benefit assessment of what Americans get for investing in the UN.
Symbolic Gestures Not Part of a New US Foreign Policy
During his first administration, President Trump left nothing to the imagination. He will not support symbolic foreign policy gestures. Trump 45 withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, which had the US taxpayers paying billions for little or no impact on the weather in the 100-year window envisioned. As the June 1, 2017, White House presidential statement made clear, “Even if the Paris Agreement were implemented in full, with total compliance from all nations, it is estimated it would only produce a two-tenths of one degree — think of that; this much — Celsius reduction in global temperature by the year 2100.” The Biden administration fell for the gag and signed the US back into the useless agreement.
Trump withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty because the US was the only signatory in compliance. Russia had not lived up to the agreement for years. As for the reaction of world leaders to Trump’s re-election, Middle Eastern friends will welcome a more decisive US foreign policy to reduce Iran’s influence and solve the Iran-sponsored proxy problem. Re-energizing the Abraham Accords, which were left fallow by the Biden administration, will be among the priorities. Asian friends and partners in creating a bulwark against China’s expansionism in the South China Sea and harassment of the Philippines can anticipate the US using a combination of military exercises and partner training with economic pressure to convince Beijing to be less threatening.
For the rest of the world, a strong US presence and influence will achieve new confidence in America. There will be confidence in the US resolve to oppose aggression and confidence in America’s position as a reliable ally and friend. The objective will be to regain the stability in the world that the first Trump administration enjoyed.
Dave is a retired U.S. Air Force Pilot with over 180 combat missions in Vietnam. He is the former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Comptroller and has served in executive positions in the private sector aerospace and defense industry. This article was first published HERE
During his first administration, President Trump left nothing to the imagination. He will not support symbolic foreign policy gestures. Trump 45 withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, which had the US taxpayers paying billions for little or no impact on the weather in the 100-year window envisioned. As the June 1, 2017, White House presidential statement made clear, “Even if the Paris Agreement were implemented in full, with total compliance from all nations, it is estimated it would only produce a two-tenths of one degree — think of that; this much — Celsius reduction in global temperature by the year 2100.” The Biden administration fell for the gag and signed the US back into the useless agreement.
Trump withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty because the US was the only signatory in compliance. Russia had not lived up to the agreement for years. As for the reaction of world leaders to Trump’s re-election, Middle Eastern friends will welcome a more decisive US foreign policy to reduce Iran’s influence and solve the Iran-sponsored proxy problem. Re-energizing the Abraham Accords, which were left fallow by the Biden administration, will be among the priorities. Asian friends and partners in creating a bulwark against China’s expansionism in the South China Sea and harassment of the Philippines can anticipate the US using a combination of military exercises and partner training with economic pressure to convince Beijing to be less threatening.
For the rest of the world, a strong US presence and influence will achieve new confidence in America. There will be confidence in the US resolve to oppose aggression and confidence in America’s position as a reliable ally and friend. The objective will be to regain the stability in the world that the first Trump administration enjoyed.
Dave is a retired U.S. Air Force Pilot with over 180 combat missions in Vietnam. He is the former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Comptroller and has served in executive positions in the private sector aerospace and defense industry. This article was first published HERE
4 comments:
The UN's shift to the left over the past decade is undeniable as it plans its programme for the post- 2030 world.
"Unpredictability as a foreign policy is an asset"
An asset to whom? Unpredictability creates uncertainty, and uncertainty encourages bad actors to challenge the established world order. How can that possibly be considered "a deterrent to enemies pressing the envelope". To the contrary, It's an incentive to press that envelope. Deterrence starts with certainty. Specifically, the certainty of the consequences of bad behaviour. Like it or hate it, the certainty of MAD (mutually assured destruction) promised by the US in the event of a nuclear attack by the Soviets, kept the peace through the latter half of the 20th century, But when Trump publicly announces he is no longer committed to NATO, the bad actors read that as weakness and try to take advantage - to press the envelope. So, it's no co-incidence that Putin has raised the stakes in Ukraine right at the very moment America's military chain of command is in disarray while it tries to deal with the political uncertainty of transitioning to a new administration. Putin has no such uncertainty. His primary foreign policy objective is to cripple NATO. Conquering Ukraine is his preferred plan of action. Trump has just made that objective so much easier to attain. How could any commentator believe uncertainty makes good foreign policy? Particularly a commentator with a military background!
Well written Mr Patterson. Your summation is right on the money. My biggest worry is the escalation of the Ukrainian war by the loopy Biden Govt to spite Trumps new term in office. The UN would simply be a bystander if this got out of hand.
Could have sworn it was Putin who was the escalator. If there's any valid criticism of Biden it is that he was always six months late in providing meaningful US assistance, maintaining the US' history of being late to an important war.
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