The country’s youngest MP has revealed the answer to the question many have been asking for some time.
What is the end game for Te Pati Maori?
Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke told us succinctly in her speech at Parliament after the hikoi.
“If every single Māori person registered on the Māori (electoral) roll we would have 20 automatic Māori seats in Parliament” she said.
The tenor of that comment confirms what many had already identified. The hikoi was not so much a protest against David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill but a recruitment drive by Te Pati Māori.
The entire exercise was orchestrated by Te Pati Māori MPs and staff. Heck, the official title of the exercise, Toitu te Tiriti, is even a registered company of which the sole director is Christina Tamahere, otherwise known as Kiri, the wife of TPM leader Rawiri Waititi and daughter of party president John Tamahere.
Whatever tactics the party used to stir up interest, it worked to the extent that many thousands showed up on the final day in Wellington.
(Estimating crowd size is always a fraught exercise. The annual Farmers Christmas Parade in Auckland was often reported as attracting more than 200,000 until an eagle eyed reporter counted the spectators in a certain area and multiplied that number by the area of the march. The conclusion, never challenged, was that the crowd was really about ten percent of that reported!)
Nevertheless, turnout at and near Parliament shows that TPM have hit the spot with their supporters and potential supporters.
As other components of the political left have been conducting their “Long march through the Institutions” – particularly educational establishments – Te Pati Maori has now begun a long march through the electoral rolls.
By using that great political tool called fear to stoke emotion among their current and future constituents, Te Pati Māori has found a completely legal and constitutional way to become the most important party in the parliament.
Let me explain.
Māori seats are not based on the number of people identifying as Māori in the population. If that was the case there would already be more than 20 seats.
In last year’s Census 19.6 percent of us identified as Māori. If 19.6 percent of the seats in Parliament were for Māori electorates, there’d be 23 such seats now.
While TPM and various Māori activist groups believe that should be the case already, there’s a sizeable proportion of those identifying as Māori (48.6 percent as of October this year) who would rather be on the General Roll.
The latest statistics show 4,003,723 registered voters as of last month. That’s estimated to be 91 percent of those eligible to vote.
Of them 14 percent identify as Māori but with only 7.2 percent on the Māori roll.
(Remember the last government changed the rules about registering for the Māori roll. Previously a Māori voter could only change after a census once very five years. Now you can do it anytime, as long as it’s not within three months of an election or by-election.)
The number of Māori electorates in each Parliament is calculated through a somewhat complicated formula which takes into account the total Māori population, including those under 18, and those registered on the Māori roll.
What Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke was imploring hikoi attendees to do was to register on the Māori roll so as to increase the number of Māori electorates, coming at the expense of general seats - because as the Māori Roll increased, the General Roll would decrease.
(In the 2026 General Election the number of general electorates will decrease from 65 to 64 but there’ll still be seven Māori electorates, and 49 List places to form a 120 seat parliament.)
There is the possibility of her jumping the shark though when she suggests that TPM would win every new Māori electorate. Yes, they did win six of seven last year but are there enough Māori voters of TPM persuasion to maintain that proportion as the number of Māori electorates increases?
The hikoi may have sown the seed of how a mass Māori movement may be able to peddle real influence. While Rawiri Waititi, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and John Tamahere talk incessantly about sovereignty and self-determination and rangatiratanga, imagine if Te Pati Maori did hold between say ten and fifteen seats in the House of Representatives?
They’d be unlikely to ever reach that number through a proportion of the party vote but if there were more Māori electorate seats up for decision, what’s not to say they wouldn’t claim them?
You know what comes next. If TPM held a double digit number of seats through newly created electorates, then they would essentially be holding the balance of power and able to move the policy needle from within.
We know what that means. He Puapua anyone?
What chance then of Ms Maipi-Clarke’s ambition coming to fruition? It won’t happen in the short term. The number of Māori electors deciding to be on the Māori Roll has been hovering between 51 and 58 percent for the last quarter of a century.
But is there a trend emerging? While the Electoral Commission publicly update their Māori enrolment figures quarterly, hence my reference to the October quarter earlier, a Stuff report claims that 1779 more signed up to the Māori roll in November, although only 1309 switched over as the others were new enrolments.
In a week like this there is obviously an enthusiasm for a campaign as that suggested by the young MP from Waikato-Tainui. But how far could it go? Is it likely that the Māori roll will one day comprise half a million voters, a number that would see more than twenty Māori electorates?
In the short term this won’t happen. There is enough diverse thinking in Maoridom for now which will prevent a wholesale transfer of political power to the Māori roll.
But Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke is just 22 years old. If she chooses, she could be an MP for another forty years or more. She’s a product of doctrinaire teaching in kura kaupapa that doesn’t have many nice things to say about the New Zealand state and its impact on Māori.
There are thousands more of her generation who think just like her. Their progress towards serious electoral influence will be slow but inevitable. With the assistance of a compliant media and educational establishment, the New Zealand future is looking to be increasingly imbalanced in favour of those with Māori ancestry.
That’s why David Seymour’s bill promoting equality for all is so important.
Peter Williams was a writer and broadcaster for half a century. Now watching from the sidelines. Peter blogs regularly on Peter’s Substack - where this article was sourced.
The tenor of that comment confirms what many had already identified. The hikoi was not so much a protest against David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill but a recruitment drive by Te Pati Māori.
The entire exercise was orchestrated by Te Pati Māori MPs and staff. Heck, the official title of the exercise, Toitu te Tiriti, is even a registered company of which the sole director is Christina Tamahere, otherwise known as Kiri, the wife of TPM leader Rawiri Waititi and daughter of party president John Tamahere.
Whatever tactics the party used to stir up interest, it worked to the extent that many thousands showed up on the final day in Wellington.
(Estimating crowd size is always a fraught exercise. The annual Farmers Christmas Parade in Auckland was often reported as attracting more than 200,000 until an eagle eyed reporter counted the spectators in a certain area and multiplied that number by the area of the march. The conclusion, never challenged, was that the crowd was really about ten percent of that reported!)
Nevertheless, turnout at and near Parliament shows that TPM have hit the spot with their supporters and potential supporters.
As other components of the political left have been conducting their “Long march through the Institutions” – particularly educational establishments – Te Pati Maori has now begun a long march through the electoral rolls.
By using that great political tool called fear to stoke emotion among their current and future constituents, Te Pati Māori has found a completely legal and constitutional way to become the most important party in the parliament.
Let me explain.
Māori seats are not based on the number of people identifying as Māori in the population. If that was the case there would already be more than 20 seats.
In last year’s Census 19.6 percent of us identified as Māori. If 19.6 percent of the seats in Parliament were for Māori electorates, there’d be 23 such seats now.
While TPM and various Māori activist groups believe that should be the case already, there’s a sizeable proportion of those identifying as Māori (48.6 percent as of October this year) who would rather be on the General Roll.
The latest statistics show 4,003,723 registered voters as of last month. That’s estimated to be 91 percent of those eligible to vote.
Of them 14 percent identify as Māori but with only 7.2 percent on the Māori roll.
(Remember the last government changed the rules about registering for the Māori roll. Previously a Māori voter could only change after a census once very five years. Now you can do it anytime, as long as it’s not within three months of an election or by-election.)
The number of Māori electorates in each Parliament is calculated through a somewhat complicated formula which takes into account the total Māori population, including those under 18, and those registered on the Māori roll.
What Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke was imploring hikoi attendees to do was to register on the Māori roll so as to increase the number of Māori electorates, coming at the expense of general seats - because as the Māori Roll increased, the General Roll would decrease.
(In the 2026 General Election the number of general electorates will decrease from 65 to 64 but there’ll still be seven Māori electorates, and 49 List places to form a 120 seat parliament.)
There is the possibility of her jumping the shark though when she suggests that TPM would win every new Māori electorate. Yes, they did win six of seven last year but are there enough Māori voters of TPM persuasion to maintain that proportion as the number of Māori electorates increases?
The hikoi may have sown the seed of how a mass Māori movement may be able to peddle real influence. While Rawiri Waititi, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and John Tamahere talk incessantly about sovereignty and self-determination and rangatiratanga, imagine if Te Pati Maori did hold between say ten and fifteen seats in the House of Representatives?
They’d be unlikely to ever reach that number through a proportion of the party vote but if there were more Māori electorate seats up for decision, what’s not to say they wouldn’t claim them?
You know what comes next. If TPM held a double digit number of seats through newly created electorates, then they would essentially be holding the balance of power and able to move the policy needle from within.
We know what that means. He Puapua anyone?
What chance then of Ms Maipi-Clarke’s ambition coming to fruition? It won’t happen in the short term. The number of Māori electors deciding to be on the Māori Roll has been hovering between 51 and 58 percent for the last quarter of a century.
But is there a trend emerging? While the Electoral Commission publicly update their Māori enrolment figures quarterly, hence my reference to the October quarter earlier, a Stuff report claims that 1779 more signed up to the Māori roll in November, although only 1309 switched over as the others were new enrolments.
In a week like this there is obviously an enthusiasm for a campaign as that suggested by the young MP from Waikato-Tainui. But how far could it go? Is it likely that the Māori roll will one day comprise half a million voters, a number that would see more than twenty Māori electorates?
In the short term this won’t happen. There is enough diverse thinking in Maoridom for now which will prevent a wholesale transfer of political power to the Māori roll.
But Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke is just 22 years old. If she chooses, she could be an MP for another forty years or more. She’s a product of doctrinaire teaching in kura kaupapa that doesn’t have many nice things to say about the New Zealand state and its impact on Māori.
There are thousands more of her generation who think just like her. Their progress towards serious electoral influence will be slow but inevitable. With the assistance of a compliant media and educational establishment, the New Zealand future is looking to be increasingly imbalanced in favour of those with Māori ancestry.
That’s why David Seymour’s bill promoting equality for all is so important.
Peter Williams was a writer and broadcaster for half a century. Now watching from the sidelines. Peter blogs regularly on Peter’s Substack - where this article was sourced.
13 comments:
Time (overdue) for the apartheid Maori seats to go bye bye.
It may not matter Peter, wont they just pick up votes from the other two idiot parties in parliament?
Yes, absolutely it's past time for the Maori seats to be gone, but don't look to National for that sensible and appropriate initiative.
Naught but a fool would consider the dedicated, racist Maori electorates to be necessary nor desirable under MMP (other than the power hungry activists that is!). However, we have had a succession of fools too willing to appease the activists and allow the status quo to continue. Peter Williams is quite correct in all the above and the Platform interviews with participants in the carkoi revealed quite clearly that most present had been suckered - most were nice folks who had believed the lies fed their way - the common name for this is brainwashing. It is very effective and the only disinfectant that works to counter this is bucket loads of truth. Oh, and yes ditching the Maori electorates will help greatly, they are superfluous and skewing the balance of our representation in Parliament.
MMP.
I argued against it when it was floated and still believe FPP was best for NZ.
MMP has been a disaster.
As my opening statement - all those who read this article, can I recommend that you also, on this blogsite, search for the article posted by Ross Murant, titled "History can be a bitch".
My rational is that when reading the article by Ross, very carefully take note of the names mentioned therein. Many of them will be remember by New Zealander's during those years for being at the fore front of Maori dissent.
Those people are still there, and they have "their adherent's coming from the back of the room", to the front, some sit in the New Zealand Parliament - and have a relationship with those named in the Murant article.
Also take note of those named by Ross, who had "paid travel to both Libya & Cuba", and if you are "scratching your head" - Libya - was a Country that trained terrorists (including Carlos The Jackal & IRA members) whilst Cuba was a defined Socialist Country".
Now why would they travel to those two specific Countries, both having a historical background in Dictatorship, and subversive activities (Cuban soldiers fought in Angola) and what where they hoping to learn and/or achieve?.
And -
- who "was the paymaster"?
- no this not a conspiracy rant.
Also within the names provided by Ross are many who have been -
[1] - part of an established Political Party - National, Labour & ACT (in its early days)
[2] - elected to be a sitting MP within Parliament, not that many ever provided substance during their presence.
In past conversations with those who "fled" South Africa as the African National Congress (ANC) gained traction, they have oft stated "that as they watch the rise of Maoridom (starting back with Jacinda Ardern) - they have equated the actions of Maoridom as being very similar to that of the ANC and what intrigued them at the time, is how many "white New Zealander's seemed oblivious to what was happening".
With this article by Peter Williams, he now brings to the forefront and high lights very clearly as to what those South African's have being saying, as well as what New Zealander's are "slowly waking up to".
Also, in response to the comment - "Time (overdue) for the apartheid Maori seats to go..", that will never happen, Labour & The Greens will/would oppose such a move and those of Maori descent within National will also "cross the floor and vote against" and Maoridom totally will more than Hikoi, there will be open revolt.
Thank you Peter Williams for your open & frank appraisal of recent days and the "hidden portent" within the Hikoi.
Peter has explained Te Pati Maori’s end game and what its ramifications could be.
This also explains Christopher Luxon’s apparent reluctance to provide any real leadership or be seen to do any to curb TPM’s ambitions - his mentor John Key has likely advised him that like Key, he may need TPM in order to form a government in the not-too-distant future.
Best not to upset them in the meantime.
That means not backing David Seymour’s obviously common-sense Bill.
And not counting on support from New Zealand First. It takes only a stupidly-flung piece of dirt about superannuation entitlements for Winston to change horses following a close election outcome.
So where to for NZ at the next election?
My picks are:
Labour bleeds support (30 to 35% of the vote)
TPM gains (5 to 10%, maybe more….)
Greens stay steady (say 10 to 15%)
ACT gains (10 to 15%, maybe more…)
and National bleeds support (35 to 40%)
I’ve ordered extra popcorn.
Possibly part of a wider strategy: the Electoral Commission considers Auckland has too many seats so Epsom could be abolished and distributed among neighbouring electorates ( mostly Left leaning except Orakei). The vote of Epsom constituents would have less impact and Seymour would lose his seat and have to contest another electorate where ACT might get strong support
The 2023 Electoral Commission Report also recommended voting for 16 years old as early as the 2025 local elections. This would probably favour Labour/Greens/TPM (given the pro-Maori vision ( "te Ao" ) taught in NZ schools.
One author of this EC Report is Andrew Geddis, law professor, Waitangi Tribunal advisor and husband of He Puapua author Prof Jacinta Ruru.
Join the dots.......
Bring it on.
Isn't the end game that the tribal feudal lords rule over all the 'guest' peasants?
Not only “could they hold the balance of power?” - Luxon is acting like he expects that situation to eventuate at the next election!
Yes - quite possible. His role might be to shepherd in this phase. To arrive at He Puapua by 2040, the 2026 and 2029 elections are strategic. Wait for the exodus if TPM holds the balance of power. The writing will be on the wall.
The Maori seats would have to be a binding referendum, as it is a major constitutional change, so the people should decide. If they can waste time and money having a referendum on cannibis surely we can get one for Parliament changes?
Post a Comment