Christopher Luxon’s National Party has surged four points to open a five-point lead over Labour in the latest 1News Verian poll, its strongest result since February.
National is on 32%, up from 28% last week, while Labour slipped one point to 27%, meaning Chris Hipkins' party has registered its lowest result since the last election.
Even with Opportunity’s support, the left bloc can only reach a majority if Te Pāti Māori wins enough electorates to create an overhang in Parliament.
See the full poll results here > https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/20/poll-national-jumps-leaving-labours-position-perilous/
Even with Opportunity’s support, the left bloc can only reach a majority if Te Pāti Māori wins enough electorates to create an overhang in Parliament.
See the full poll results here > https://www.1news.co.nz/2026/10/20/poll-national-jumps-leaving-labours-position-perilous/
4 comments:
Greens up to 16%. I thought their cozying up to the gangs was meant to cost them support
Give it time...Anonymous. Media has made good hay of the gang connection..
According to Google AI, "Historical accuracy data tracked by Verian shows that their final pre-election surveys average within 1.17 percentage points of the actual election day party vote results." I'd be very interested in knowing what the Standard Error of Prediction was but assuming it's moderate this poll may be quite reliable as a predictor. My gut feeling is that OPP will slip below the 5% cut-off and NZF will rise above 10% between now and polling day. Any takers?
Do these polls factor in overseas voting which seems to deliver one to three additional seats to the LGTPM
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