‘Tis the season of polls and 3 were released this week. The RNZ-Reid Research poll had Labour on 30.8%, National on 25.9%, the Greens on 14.8%, New Zealand First on 10.6%, ACT on 9%, and Opportunity on 5.5%. The 1News-Verian poll told a slightly different story, with National ahead of Labour at 29% to 28%, the Greens on 16%, New Zealand First on 10%, ACT on 9%, and Opportunity on 7%. Notably both put Opportunity in the position of potentially deciding the next government.
Then, on Thursday, the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll complicated matters further. National was on 28.5%, Labour on 28.2%, the Greens on 13.3%, New Zealand First on 12%, ACT on 9.2%, and Opportunity on 4.8%. Under that poll’s seat projection, National, ACT and New Zealand First would have 65 seats between them, enough to govern.
Here I insert my usual caution about not putting stock in one poll and encourage you rather to look at the trends. And the glaringly obvious problem with treating any one of these polls as definitive is that Opportunity is sitting right on the 5% threshold. A couple of fractions of percentage points in either direction changes the entire situation.
We had the first leaders’ debate on Tuesday, moderated by Jack Tame who I think did a pretty good job with a pretty crap format. I thought Hipkins was the better debater. He is a career politician who has spent decades learning how to speak fluently about almost any issue put in front of him except what a woman is.
Luxon, by comparison, still looks uncomfortable in these environments. He often has perfectly reasonable substantive answers but struggles to communicate them clearly. In this particular debate he had some moments of strength and in my view had better substantive policy, but just does not have the lifetime of performing on political stages that Hipkins does.
Labour’s fiscal plan has significant weaknesses, Hipkins struggled on education and law and order, and his party’s attempts to present itself as a fresh alternative inevitably runs into trouble when their previous six years in government are pointed to. Yet Luxon failed to make much of that stick.
On education, Hipkins conceded that Labour would retain National’s school cellphone ban despite opposing it and most damagingly suggested the requirement for an hour each of reading, writing, and maths should be left to schools. Luxon seized on the opportunity to call Hipkins our worst former Education Minister and point out the successes of the policy.
Christopher Luxon was asked repeatedly during and after the TVNZ Leaders’ Debate if he has changed his mind about working with the Opportunity party because its proposed land tax in is not a “bottom line” for the party anymore. He again ruled it out which makes sense from the perspective that he does not want any potential National supporters thinking if they give Opportunity their vote they are going to get National. However, it is pretty safe to say that should he need to, he will be on the phone to Qiulae Wong post-election.
Wong is making it very clear that the door is still open saying Opportunity will approach whichever major party receives the largest party vote on the night. She conceded that agreeing to no progress on tax reform during the next parliamentary term could be worth considering if Opportunity secured enough of its other priorities.
Hipkins is similarly telling voters explicitly not to vote for Opportunity if they want a Labour government while keeping the door open to working with them.
A fiscal plan held together by optimistic assumptions
Labour finally released its fiscal plan this week, Barbara Edmonds unveiling a document showing approximately $35.5 billion available for operating commitments across the forecast period. Of that, $24 billion comes from operating allowances and another $11.497 billion from revenue measures and savings. Planned spending accounts for $25.103 billion, leaving $10.393 billion in fiscal headroom.
At first glance ten billion dollars seems like an awful lot of money. The difficulty is that Labour intends to use that headroom to restore the previous pay equity regime. Based on the Treasury costing used in their work, the additional commitments could amount to approximately $8.5 billion over the period. That leaves just $1.893 billion.
And what about health? Labour’s fiscal plan includes the established health funding allowances for 3 years but no additional cost pressure provision for the 4th. As Thomas Coughlan pointed out in his analysis for the Herald, it is hardly credible to assume a future government will simply freeze health funding while hospitals, salaries, and operational costs continue to rise. Especially when they are bleating on about the system being in crisis as one of their main talking points.
The boring ordinary costs of running government don’t disappear when politicians make more exciting promises. Teachers, police officers, customs staff, and other public servants will expect pay increases. Schools will need more funding to cover rising operating costs and government departments will have a myriad of reasons to go cap and hand to whoever is in the Beehive. A fiscal plan should leave enough flexibility to absorb these sorts of pressures. Labour has chosen to effectively commit most of that flexibility to one very expensive policy in reversing pay equity changes.
The eagle eyes at the Taxpayers’ Union also spotted an error in Labour’s fiscal plan involving the Income Related Rent Subsidy and Accommodation Supplement. Labour had recorded the financial impact of reversing a government policy incorrectly, turning what should have been a cost into a saving. The resulting discrepancy was approximately $89.6 million. Labour admitted the mistake and promised to correct it.
Labour’s corrected fiscal plan does technically add up mathematically, but it incorporates some assumptions that are doing extraordinarily heavy lifting and it is very likely that they would be in a position that would see them blow out their budget.
But while National rightly holds their feet to the fire on this, it is also reasonable for Labour to give National grief about how it intends to pay for its own commitments as they are yet to release their own fiscal plan. They have released the government books with PREFU, but not laid out their projections and party plan.
Election 2026: It's raining policies, hallelujah
All parties have spent another week releasing policies covering everything from beneficiaries’ drug use to airline refunds, KiwiSaver contributions, petrol stations, and the price of catching a bus.
National’s most attention-grabbing announcement was a proposed overhaul of Jobseeker Support including introducing random drug testing, beginning with 10,000 tests in the first year, and reduced payments for people who have received Jobseeker for 2 of the previous 3 years. Under current rates, a single recipient without children could lose $48.05 a week from April 2028. Couples without children could lose a combined $81.76, while recipients with dependent children would face smaller reductions.
But it is the drug testing that has the left up in arms. They argue this is cruel and unusual punishment, but the counterargument is that working New Zealanders should not be having to pay for beneficiaries to buy drugs and that doing so makes it even more unlikely that “jobseekers” will be capable of finding employment.
National also proposes doubling the period during which someone who repeatedly leaves employment without sufficient reason is unable to receive a benefit, also extending the residency qualification period from 2 to 5 years, and providing additional work-focused support for 30,000 long term jobseekers. The party estimates the changes would save approximately $583 million over 4 years, with most of that coming from reduced payments.
The latest figures showed 218,500 people receiving Jobseeker at the end of June, up 3,300 on the previous quarter. The Government’s target of reducing that number to 140,000 by 2030 is looking pretty out of reach as things are now.
David Seymour thinks National isn’t going far enough. ACT wants tougher restrictions introduced sooner and is proposing that some long term beneficiaries receive support through a card restricted to essential purchases.
National also announced a plan to redirect funding from foreign aid towards Pharmac and cancer screening, raising the familiar question of how much New Zealand should commit to helping people overseas when there are substantial unmet needs at home.
On transport, the Greens are back plucking from the magic money tree and promising free public transport for children, students, Community Services Card holders, and Total Mobility users, with fares capped at $2 for everyone else. They also want expanded passenger rail, including an overnight Auckland to Wellington service, a restored Southerner between Christchurch and Dunedin, and an extension of Te Huia to Tauranga.
Labour, meanwhile, has gone on a tear of small policies targeted at addressing common bug bears. They turned attention to airlines, proposing to force automatic refunds for cancelled or significantly changed flights, clearer pricing information, greater scrutiny of airline profitability, and improved access to airport infrastructure for smaller carriers. Consumer NZ welcomed the attention to competition but pointed out that some parts of the policy are superfluous as they are already covered by existing consumer protections and regulatory oversight.
Labour is also promising to make surplus NZTA land available for independent petrol stations, require more reporting on fuel prices, and improve independent mechanics’ access to vehicle repair information.
KiwiSaver is again a focus of policy with ACT wanting to remove tax on qualifying investment returns and NZ First proposing eventual contributions of 10% from employers and employees.
And the extraordinary enthusiasm for intervening in markets continues unabated by all except ACT. Labour wants stronger controls on supermarkets, banks, fuel suppliers, and airlines. As we know the Greens are proposing even more intervention, including public ownership of supermarkets and NZ First has floated buying back BNZ. National is proposing to break up Foodstuffs subject to the Commerce Commission.
David Seymour described the whole debate as a “dumpster fire” this week, arguing that the parties are competing to threaten or regulate businesses while ignoring the country’s underlying productivity problems. And former Labour minister Steve Maharey agrees with him saying New Zealand wants the services and living standards of a wealthy country without consistently generating the income required to pay for them.
National’s newfound willingness to interfere in private business has produce some aggressive backlash from their own supporters. Usually a business lunch would be a comfortable event for the Nats, but this week Nicola Willis found herself on the other end of a frustrated rant from Pak’nSave Clarence Street, Hamilton, owner Tony Rider. He unleashed on National’s Deputy Leader and her explanations did nothing to soothe his anger leading to Tama Potaka having to intervene and leaving Willis in tears.
Election 2026: Party lists, polling, and political own goals
New Zealand First unveiled its party list this week and it has some political heft along with a few surprises. The top four positions go to this term’s high performers in Winston Peters, Shane Jones, Casey Costello, and Mark Patterson. They are followed by former National MP Alfred Ngaro who is working very hard to bring in the conservative and Christian voters particularly from Pasifika communities. Then broadcaster and former MP Michael Laws is 6th, former National MP Harete Hipango-Brownlie 7th, former Chair of the Financial Markets Authority and financial heavyweight Craig Stobo 8th, and former All Black captain Taine Randell 9th.
Which puts several newcomers above sitting MPs Jenny Marcroft (10th), Andy Foster, David Wilson, and Jamie Arbuckle. The rankings demonstrate the renewal Peters wants in his caucus and those selected at the top bring significant previous experience in politics, business, and public life. There are also whispers that Taine Randell could be a future leader of the party about to undergo an apprenticeship from the 2 kaumatua leading the party.
In Mt Albert things are getting even more interesting with a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll putting Labour’s Helen White ahead on 31%, followed by National’s Melissa Lee on 26%, Green MP Ricardo Menéndez March on 18%, and Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong on 8%. The left’s split could prove costly if Lee is able to gain some percentage points prior to the election. It also shows Opportunity’s realistic route into Parliament is dependent on clearing the party vote threshold rather than winning a seat.
There is also considerable attention on the Māori electorates as Te Pāti Māori pursues its electorate-focused overhang strategy. A Whakaata Māori-Curia poll in Hauraki-Waikato has Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke comfortably ahead of Labour’s Kingi Kiriona by 45% to 26%, with 17% undecided and in Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi is polling at 42%, well ahead of the Greens’ Tania Waikato on 16% and Labour’s Toni Boynton on 14%. Interestingly, despite the explicit call for just electorate votes, in Waiariki party vote polling shows Labour is on 24%, Te Pāti Māori on 23%, and the Greens on 22%.
There was also a rather awkward discovery that Labour’s high ranking (13th) new candidate, former police superintendent Rakesh Naidoo, sits on the board of the New Zealand Performance Academy, a charter school. Unfortunately for Labour, Hipkins has promised to abolish the charter school model. Even more unfortunately, Hipkins apparently did not know Naidoo was involved with one. Taken by surprise Hipkins said Naidoo would have to resign from the board if he entered Parliament.
Winston Peters wishes James Christmas a very merry election
Yesterday produced perhaps the week’s most popcorn-worthy political exchange courtesy of ACT’s Tāmaki candidate James Christmas and Winston Peters. Christmas posted a “friendly” video addressed directly to Peters following his comments about abortion during an interview with Family First’s Bob McCoskrie. Peters had said that while he supported legal and safe abortion, the issue could, depending on timing and circumstances, shade into what he described as murder. Christmas warned Peters against bringing those views into the Tāmaki electorate and pledging to stand up for women’s bodily autonomy. This earned him this response from Peters on X:
Tāmaki had been staunchly blue until Brooke van Velden from ACT won it this term. Her victory was seen by some as a rejection of the conservatism of the incumbent National MP Simon O’Connor so Christmas’ video could be a deliberate signal to the women of the electorate that he is not socially conservative.
During the interview with Family First, Peters also took aim at the Conversion Therapy law, a piece of legislation which is in my (gay) view a total misnomer as it actually facilitates and encourages the most pervasive form of modern conversion therapy - transitioning kids who would grow up to be happy and healthy gay adults. He subsequently clarified his comments saying NZ First was open to reviewing it rather than repealing it altogether which would make me personally very happy as this could result in the right protections remaining while the terrible ones are removed.
The Christian CEO Network hosted a debate between Christian candidates Paul Teio (New Zealand Loyal), Hannah Tamaki (Vision New Zealand), Greg Fleming (National), Doug Lyell (Conservative Party), and Elliot Ikilei (NZ First).
Responding to the question “Christianity has been booted out of Parliament. How would you go about restoring that?” National MP Greg Fleming said “With respect, I disagree with the observation… I found that my Christian faith has been very warmly received and deeply respected.”
NZ First’s Elliot Ikilei disagreed saying “Chris Luxon leader of the National Party got on his knees to bow down to a false god” and that “Christianity needs to have a backbone”.
Ikilei has not been afraid to ruffle feathers at various debates this campaign. Following an event at Papakura Marae, he pointed out on X that “the only two of us with Māori ancestry were me and Hannah [Tamaki]. Everyone else was lecturing us on honouring the Treaty, partnership, and co-governance.”
He said to those gathered “There is no partnership. There is no co-governance. These co-governance things are racist policies that got brought up in the Finlayson National Party era. We do not believe that race laws and race policies help anyone.”
A police officer, a teacher and a psychologist walk into a disciplinary hearing…
There were a few professional misconduct stories this week involving people who were in positions of trust.
Former Waikato police constable Haimona Keelim Tamati-Te Paki has been stripped of his 2022 New Zealand Police Sportsperson of the Year award after being convicted of stealing $68,000 from a vulnerable pensioner. He was assigned to help the woman after she had already experienced financial fraud. Instead, he accompanied her to the bank, took $12,000 in cash, and subsequently visited her home repeatedly, secretly accessing her online banking through her mobile phone and transferring another $56,000 into his own account. When the woman discovered the theft and contacted her bank, staff traced the money to the police officer supposedly investigating her original fraud complaint. Tamati-Te Paki was sentenced in March to 11 months’ home detention, with the judge taking into account his gambling addiction, steps towards rehabilitation and offer of reparation.
Former Whanganui Girls’ College teacher Rupert de Smidt has lost his registration following stalking-related misconduct involving a student. For almost two years he anonymously left jewellery, Valentine’s cards, and other gifts for a teenaged girl, putting them in her school bag, on her car, and even in the letterbox at her home. She initially believed the gifts came from another student, until CCTV footage revealed her teacher was responsible. A subsequent examination of his school laptop discovered he had been accessing pornography as well as looking at the girl’s social media profile and school ball photographs.
Then the tribunal found he repeatedly touched another student inappropriately during class, placing his hand high on her thigh, and sometimes underneath her skirt. She had reported the behaviour to the school, but no formal action was taken. She was then assigned to one of his classes the following year and her parents had to demand that she be moved. She later reported it again to another staff member and some received support, but it begs the question of why the school failed to act when the pupil first reported a teacher putting his hand up her skirt. There is no indication that criminal charges or investigations have occured.
In another professional disciplinary case, a senior clinical psychologist was found guilty of misconduct after she proposed to adopt a patient having developed what was as an inappropriate “maternal” relationship with a vulnerable young patient. The psychologist told her client she loved her, sent 186 text messages in a single day, showered her with gifts, and gave her 5-10 minute hugs during therapy sessions.
In tearful evidence, the psychologist explained that she had been unconsciously trying to fill a maternal void from her own childhood trauma. Her lawyer argued she had already suffered enough after nearly two years suspended from practice. The patient, rather understandably, disagreed. The tribunal has found professional misconduct but reserved its decision on penalties and name suppression.
A particularly grim few weeks for New Zealand
Police, meanwhile, continue investigating several disturbing deaths. This includes the death of Braydon Hepworth (21) in Christchurch following the discovery that his body had been concealed inside a flat occupied by someone he knew. The property is understood to be one of two flats used by a community organisation to house former prison inmates. Police have described the death as unexplained, and an initial postmortem examination was inconclusive.
Police have also now launched an investigation into the suspicious death of Waiheke Island mother Chantelle McLaughlin-Middlemiss (32), and the circumstances are very strange indeed. On June 2, emergency services were called to her home at 2.42pm following a report that she might already be dead, but they found her alive and determined there were no immediate concerns. However, less than an hour later, at approximately 3.30pm, people known to her family returned to the property and discovered her unresponsive in bed and she could not be revived.
Detective Senior Sergeant Martin Friend believes a small number of people have information that could provide answers and that divided loyalties may be preventing them from coming forward. No arrests or charges have been reported.
In Wellington, an amount human blood significant enough to rouse police concern was discovered in a pedestrian tunnel and has prompted a police inquiry.
There has been a horrifying run of violent deaths in New Zealand over the past few weeks. On 4 September, a man and woman were found shot dead in Nelson in a suspected murder-suicide. Three days later, a woman and her two children, aged 3 and 11 months, were killed in Rotorua and a man who also lived at the address is “assisting police”. Make of that what you will. On 19 September, another woman was found dead in Newlands, Wellington, prompting a homicide investigation and again a man is “assisting police”. On 23 September, a child was murdered in Otautau, Southland, with two 19 year olds subsequently charged with murder. An unverified local source says they are the child's mother and her boyfriend.
On the West Coast, Police are investigating the deaths of 2 people found at separate properties near Reefton on 29 September. Emergency services were called to a property at around 7.50am, where they discovered a body and further enquiries led officers to another property, where a second person was found dead. Police have since identified the deceased as Chelsey Anne Russell (34) and Samuel Frederick Bass (45). Detective Inspector Geoff Baber confirmed a homicide investigation was underway but said Police were not seeking anybody else in connection with the deaths which suggests another murder-suicide.
The very next day, Sarah Megan Brown (37) was found dead in Christchurch and a man (52) was charged with her murder. Neighbours reported hearing a series of loud bangs during the night, and Sarah’s landlord says she understood she had visited a neighbouring flat around 3am seeking alcohol and been turned away. The landlord further alleges that Sarah returned around 5.30am and was stabbed.
On 1 October, a man was killed in broad daylight in Glen Innes and another man (33) has been charged with murder. That same day, Dahlia Neville (6), her brother Hunter (9), and their father, Edward Courtenay James Neville (40), were found dead at their Papatoetoe home. Investigators have said they are not looking for anybody else in connection with the deaths and this suggests yet another murder-suicide situation.
And in Glendene, West Auckland, a baby was among 3 people injured in a horrific knife attack at a home on Sunday 4 October. A neighbour heard a woman crying and went to investigate with her partner and brother. They entered the house to find blood on the floor and an injured baby. Police later confirmed that one patient had undergone surgery and remained critically ill, another was in a serious but stable condition, and the 3rd was recovering at home. A woman (33) has been charged with attempted murder and was scheduled to appear in court via a bedside hearing which suggests she is the one “in a serious but stable condition”. Police say everyone involved knew one another and they are not looking for anybody else.
These are nine separate incidents in barely a month, involving 14 deaths and 3 more people injured in an alleged attempted murder including several very young children. Not all the circumstances have been established, but it is very concerning how many of these cases involve children, families, or intimate partners. Hat tip to caffeineworship from X who pulled together this list.
Famous faces and serious charges
Hollywood actor Cliff Curtis (58) is facing charges of reckless driving and driving with excess blood alcohol following a serious crash on Auckland’s waterfront on 23 September. Curtis was allegedly driving a customised matte-black Tesla when it collided with a parked taxi. The taxi driver, Gagan Deep Singh, had to be cut free from the wreckage by firefighters. He suffered eight broken ribs, a broken collarbone, a fractured hip, injuries to his hands, a head wound, and internal bleeding around his lungs. Other people were also injured in the crash, and Curtis himself was hospitalised with internal injuries. He is due in court on 15 October.
And to round off the grim week, a “prominent New Zealand sportsman” who competes internationally appeared in Auckland District Court on Thursday facing family violence charges, including assaulting a person in a family relationship, assault with intent to injure, and impeding breathing or blood circulation (strangulation). He has been granted interim name suppression, along with suppression of other details of the case, and is due back in court next month.
Government transparency, now with 394% more bad maths
Research commissioned by the Ministry of Justice to inform possible changes to the Official Information Act has attracted criticism this week after the Herald’s David Fisher examined the documents and discovered that it contained an assortment of mathematical errors, questionable assumptions, and inconsistencies. Former chief ombudsman Sir Peter Boshier has warned that the reports should not be relied upon as evidence for sound decision making.
The Ministry spent $57,000 on two reports looking at the growing cost and administrative burden of OIA requests and the reports were intended to help inform decisions about whether the law needed reform. The reports’ headline claim was that OIA requests had increased by 394% since 2016, but the actual increase, once the arithmetic was corrected, was 294.5%. An estimate suggesting the system could cost as much as $750 million annually turned out not to be based on any formal calculation supported by data. And the Ministry conceded it could not be certain whether Privacy Act requests had been included in the OIA numbers.
There were contradictory descriptions of overhead costs, mathematical inconsistencies in estimates of complex requests, and confusion over how many recommendations the consultants had actually made. One report claimed the average cost of responding to OIA requests was escalating substantially. Yet its own figures suggested the average cost had actually moved from approximately $1,160 per request in 2016 to $1,156 in 2025.
The Ministry has now acknowledged that the consultants were not experts in the OIA. Excellent.
The possible reforms being discussed include charging for requests, expanding refusal grounds, changing the definition of official information and restricting which bodies are covered by the Act.
Woolworths and the terrible, horrible, enormous 0.38% profit margin
Woolworths New Zealand has returned to profit, which will no doubt provide another opportunity for politicians to explain how supermarkets are responsible for the cost of living crisis. The company’s newly released financial statements show sales of $8.49 billion for the 2026 financial year and an after tax profit of… wait for it… $32 million.
Sounds like a lot to those of us struggling to cover bills, but that is a net profit margin of approximately 0.38%. In other words, Woolworths only made about 38 cents of after tax profit for every $100 in revenue. The company recorded a $32.3 million loss the previous year and has experienced a substantial decline in profitability. Profits averaged more than $150 million annually between 2017 and 2023.
None of this proves that the supermarket sector is competitive nor does it tell us whether particular products are overpriced, whether suppliers receive a fair deal, or whether barriers to entry are protecting the existing major chains. But it certainly complicates the popular political narrative that supermarkets are simply sitting on enormous profits extracted from helpless shoppers. The Greens have been particularly enthusiastic about the idea that supermarket companies are making excessive profits, repeatedly claiming the sector extracts around $1 million a day more than it should.
The problem is that the underlying costs of running a supermarket are high. The price on the shelf reflects purchasing, freight, wages, electricity, refrigeration, premises, wastage, compliance, and a long list of other expenses before shareholders receive anything. If Woolworths somehow eliminated its entire reported after-tax profit and returned every cent to customers through lower prices, that saving would amount to approximately 0.38% of sales, assuming everything else remained unchanged. That is not going to transform anyone’s weekly grocery bill.
In the courts: Another chapter in New Zealand's COVID reckoning
A new legal challenge has been filed concerning the requirement for teenagers to receive 2x COVID-19 vaccine doses to participate in activities covered by the vaccine pass system. The case has been brought in the name of Ashley Beulink, who was 14 when she developed vaccine-induced pericarditis after receiving her second dose in February 2022.
The second phase of the Royal Commission found that the Ministry of Health had failed to pass on specific expert advice from December 2021 warning that requiring two doses for 12–17 year olds was not justified by the relative risks, including concerns about myocarditis. But the NZ Herald later uncovered a Cabinet paper in Chris Hipkins’ name from March 2022 that explicitly referred to the advice, including the possibility that a second mandated dose exposed teenagers to unnecessary myocarditis risk which brings into question Hipkins’ reliance on the Royal Commission’s finding that ministers had not received the advice (based in large part on his own claims of this).
Teflon Hipkins has denied misleading the public and maintains that communicating medical advice was the responsibility of health professionals… despite standing on a platform giving medical advice for several years.
Beulink says the vaccine pass restrictions influenced her decision to receive the second dose because she had already experienced exclusion from social and sporting activities. The legal question is whether the requirements represented a justified limitation on young people’s right to refuse medical treatment, particularly when relevant expert advice had not been made available.
Academic freedom, subject to management approval
Distinguished theoretical chemist and Massey University Professor Peter Schwerdtfeger (no, Lua did not stand on my keyboard, that is how you spell his name) is facing a formal complaint over opinion articles he published. The Free Speech Union has written to the university challenging the process and defending Schwerdtfeger’s right to express controversial views under the protections afforded to academic freedom.
Schwerdtfeger co-authored articles 3 years ago questioning aspects of decolonisation, mātauranga Māori, university funding, and the direction of tertiary education in New Zealand. The complainant is not a student or colleague, but a Māori mother whose daughter was considering studying Māori Studies at Massey, who says the professor’s views have made her question whether the institution is suitable. She has asked Massey to investigate whether 5 opinion articles published in 2023 are consistent with its values and academic freedom policy, including provisions concerning speech that could marginalise people on grounds of ethnicity or culture. Massey has referred the matter to a formal investigative panel and a decision is expected later this month.
Best Start: Charity begins at home
Childcare giant Best Start is New Zealand’s largest early childhood education provider, operating more than 250 centres and employing around 3,750 full time equivalent staff. Its latest accounts show annual revenue of $433 million, including $317 million in government funding, and another $115 million in fees paid by parents.
But it is what happens to some of that money that raises eyebrows. In 2015, Best Start’s founders, Wayne and Chloe Wright, sold their childcare business to a charitable organisation they had established for $332 million. Rather than the charity paying the purchase price upfront, the Wrights effectively lent it the money.
The charity has spent the past decade using income generated by Best Start to repay that loan to the family’s private trusts. So far, approximately $278 million has flowed back to the Wright family in tax-free loan repayments, including $28.8 million in the latest financial year. The outstanding balance is now $53.9 million.
The payments are tax-free because they are repayments of the loan rather than taxable income. There is nothing unlawful about such an arrangement, but it does mean that hundreds of millions of dollars have flowed from a charitable organisation to the private interests of the family who established it.
Best Start also rents approximately a third of its childcare centres from private Wright family interests. In the latest financial year, the charity paid another $16.7 million in rent and reimbursements to various family trusts.
To be fair to them, Best Start is providing a service that parents need and employing thousands of people. And early childhood education is funded by the Government regardless of whether the provider operates as a commercial company or a charity. Nevertheless, there is something unpalatable about a family establishing a charity, selling their own highly profitable business to it, and then spending the next decade receiving hundreds of millions of dollars from that charity in repayment of the purchase price, while also collecting rental income from properties it occupies.
Something being perfectly legal does not automatically make it an especially good deal for the public.
🇬🇧🇺🇸🇮🇱 This week in Islamic extremism terrorising the West
In Britain, allegations have emerged concerning Iranian state-linked operatives plotting to target journalists based in the United Kingdom. Iranian dissidents and journalists working overseas have long faced threats because of their criticism of the regime in Tehran.
Further details about the attempted hijacking of a flight bound for Israel have emerged, including scrutiny of the accused flydubai co-pilot’s radicalisation and time in Australia, New Zealand, and Britain which he previously described as the golden years of his religious commitment.
Hamam al-Hammami (29) allegedly intended to crash the aircraft into Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport and investigators believe he may originally have planned the attack for July but postponed it because a friend was among the crew. How on earth he got another job flying passenger planes given Oman Air removed him from flying duties because of concerns about extremist beliefs is a mystery. The Guardian reports that he may specifically have sought a job flying to Israel in order to carry out the attack.
And the warning signs were hardly subtle. Researchers recovered nearly 3,000 posts and responses from a now deleted X account attributed to Hammami, finding, in addition to radical Islamist beliefs, repeated misogynistic and homophobic abuse, including explicit threats of violence against women and references to stomping on women’s heads.
In the United States, the FBI arrested Sheikhdoon Mohamud (18) over an alleged ISIS-inspired mass shooting plot targeting the Mall of America in Minnesota. According to court documents, he purchased an AK-47 and 200 rounds of ammunition from an FBI confidential source and discussed attacking a festival at the shopping centre. Investigators say he expressed antisemitic motives and believed that the mall was Jewish-owned.
Though the political motives have not been established, in Britain, 2 Latvian nationals aged 32 and 36 were arrested after allegedly breaching the perimeter fence at RAF Molesworth, a highly sensitive military facility housing American and NATO intelligence operations. The men were discovered inside the base in the early hours of Thursday after security patrols noticed an abandoned vehicle and a breach in the fence.
They were initially arrested on suspicion of trespass and criminal damage, but the investigation has escalated to suspected offences under the National Security Act. Counterterrorism Police are investigating. Police say there is currently no evidence connecting the incident to the separate suspected Iranian-linked plot at RAF Fairford. But it is another wake up call for the British military about how increasingly vulnerable they are to terrorism and foreign state attacks.
🇬🇧 John Cleese commits the crime of criticising a religion
John Cleese has become the subject of a complaint to Britain’s Prevent counter-extremism programme following a series of posts criticising Islam. The complaint alleges that Cleese’s commentary demonises Muslims and risks encouraging communal hostility.
Cleese has responded with characteristic sarcasm, describing himself as sceptical of Islam and arguing that the religion should be open to criticism and ridicule in much the same way Christianity was subjected to satire in his Monty Python and The Life of Brian.
Prevent is intended to identify people at risk of radicalisation or involvement in terrorism, hardly the appropriate destination for complaints about an elderly comedian expressing provocative opinions on religion.
🇺🇸 21 children and some horrifying questions about surrogacy
An extremely wealthy couple in California have been arrested following allegations of horrific abuse involving children they had accumulated through surrogacy arrangements. Guojun Xuan (66) and Silvia Zhang (39) are accused of operating a household where prosecutors allege children were subjected to repeated physical abuse in a house rigged up with surveillance cameras. The couple have pleaded not guilty and deny the allegations.
Prosecutors say 21 children were linked to the couple, many born to surrogate mothers recruited across the United States. Authorities also allege the couple operated a surrogacy agency from their home and controlled substantial financial resources through numerous bank accounts.
This shines a light on the concerns many feminists such as myself have raised about the surrogacy industry. It is often presented as an uncomplicated act of generosity, allowing people who cannot carry a child themselves to become parents. But commercial systems involving large amounts of money, intermediaries, and women recruited to carry babies for others create obvious opportunities for exploitation.
🇺🇸 Capital punishment meets the content economy
The United States is going to livestream the military execution of Nidal Hasan, the former Army psychiatrist responsible for killing 13 people at Fort Hood, Texas, in 2009. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth argues that people should see the consequences of acts of mass violence. Hasan is scheduled to be executed by firing squad on December 3.
I am not remotely comfortable with the idea of turning an execution into something people can watch on their phones. Capital punishment already divides people over questions of deterrence, retribution, justice, and the state’s power to take life. Broadcasting an execution introduces another issue of whether public punishment should become a spectacle.
Critics argue that turning a death into a public event risks encouraging the kind of morbid fascination that violent extremists seek. In light of chaos created by the livestreaming of contentious criminal justice cases like Lindsay Clancy’s, there are also concerns about how livestreaming this execution could cause further issues with social cohesion. Seems barbaric to me.
🇬🇧 Kemi Badenoch and Rosie Duffield named in alleged target list
Police investigating the murder of former Conservative politician, and Reform UK spokesperson, Ann Widdecombe have discovered a dossier containing the names of more than 100 prominent political figures in the home of Joshua Kerry (28) who has been charged with Widdecombe’s murder and terrorism-related offences.
The names reportedly include Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, members of her shadow cabinet, Reform politicians, independent (former Labour MP) MP Rosie Duffield and other public figures. Given the inclusion of Duffield who, like Widdecombe and Badenoch, has been a staunch advocate for women’s rights there is speculation that transactivism could be a motive.
Kerry has also been accused of conducting online reconnaissance of prominent individuals and institutions, including Reform leader Nigel Farage.
In short — other stuff that happened
I have deliberately not covered the Cornell 7 case in this wrap up because I am almost finished a piece on it for my other Substack called Women’s Rights and Wrongs. If you want to receive it when I am done you can subscribe here.
Ani O'Brien comes from a digital marketing background, she has been heavily involved in women's rights advocacy and is a founding council member of the Free Speech Union. This article was originally published on Ani's Substack Site and is published here with kind permission.
Here I insert my usual caution about not putting stock in one poll and encourage you rather to look at the trends. And the glaringly obvious problem with treating any one of these polls as definitive is that Opportunity is sitting right on the 5% threshold. A couple of fractions of percentage points in either direction changes the entire situation.
We had the first leaders’ debate on Tuesday, moderated by Jack Tame who I think did a pretty good job with a pretty crap format. I thought Hipkins was the better debater. He is a career politician who has spent decades learning how to speak fluently about almost any issue put in front of him except what a woman is.
Luxon, by comparison, still looks uncomfortable in these environments. He often has perfectly reasonable substantive answers but struggles to communicate them clearly. In this particular debate he had some moments of strength and in my view had better substantive policy, but just does not have the lifetime of performing on political stages that Hipkins does.
Labour’s fiscal plan has significant weaknesses, Hipkins struggled on education and law and order, and his party’s attempts to present itself as a fresh alternative inevitably runs into trouble when their previous six years in government are pointed to. Yet Luxon failed to make much of that stick.
On education, Hipkins conceded that Labour would retain National’s school cellphone ban despite opposing it and most damagingly suggested the requirement for an hour each of reading, writing, and maths should be left to schools. Luxon seized on the opportunity to call Hipkins our worst former Education Minister and point out the successes of the policy.
Christopher Luxon was asked repeatedly during and after the TVNZ Leaders’ Debate if he has changed his mind about working with the Opportunity party because its proposed land tax in is not a “bottom line” for the party anymore. He again ruled it out which makes sense from the perspective that he does not want any potential National supporters thinking if they give Opportunity their vote they are going to get National. However, it is pretty safe to say that should he need to, he will be on the phone to Qiulae Wong post-election.
Wong is making it very clear that the door is still open saying Opportunity will approach whichever major party receives the largest party vote on the night. She conceded that agreeing to no progress on tax reform during the next parliamentary term could be worth considering if Opportunity secured enough of its other priorities.
Hipkins is similarly telling voters explicitly not to vote for Opportunity if they want a Labour government while keeping the door open to working with them.
A fiscal plan held together by optimistic assumptions
Labour finally released its fiscal plan this week, Barbara Edmonds unveiling a document showing approximately $35.5 billion available for operating commitments across the forecast period. Of that, $24 billion comes from operating allowances and another $11.497 billion from revenue measures and savings. Planned spending accounts for $25.103 billion, leaving $10.393 billion in fiscal headroom.
At first glance ten billion dollars seems like an awful lot of money. The difficulty is that Labour intends to use that headroom to restore the previous pay equity regime. Based on the Treasury costing used in their work, the additional commitments could amount to approximately $8.5 billion over the period. That leaves just $1.893 billion.
And what about health? Labour’s fiscal plan includes the established health funding allowances for 3 years but no additional cost pressure provision for the 4th. As Thomas Coughlan pointed out in his analysis for the Herald, it is hardly credible to assume a future government will simply freeze health funding while hospitals, salaries, and operational costs continue to rise. Especially when they are bleating on about the system being in crisis as one of their main talking points.
The boring ordinary costs of running government don’t disappear when politicians make more exciting promises. Teachers, police officers, customs staff, and other public servants will expect pay increases. Schools will need more funding to cover rising operating costs and government departments will have a myriad of reasons to go cap and hand to whoever is in the Beehive. A fiscal plan should leave enough flexibility to absorb these sorts of pressures. Labour has chosen to effectively commit most of that flexibility to one very expensive policy in reversing pay equity changes.
The eagle eyes at the Taxpayers’ Union also spotted an error in Labour’s fiscal plan involving the Income Related Rent Subsidy and Accommodation Supplement. Labour had recorded the financial impact of reversing a government policy incorrectly, turning what should have been a cost into a saving. The resulting discrepancy was approximately $89.6 million. Labour admitted the mistake and promised to correct it.
Labour’s corrected fiscal plan does technically add up mathematically, but it incorporates some assumptions that are doing extraordinarily heavy lifting and it is very likely that they would be in a position that would see them blow out their budget.
But while National rightly holds their feet to the fire on this, it is also reasonable for Labour to give National grief about how it intends to pay for its own commitments as they are yet to release their own fiscal plan. They have released the government books with PREFU, but not laid out their projections and party plan.
Election 2026: It's raining policies, hallelujah
All parties have spent another week releasing policies covering everything from beneficiaries’ drug use to airline refunds, KiwiSaver contributions, petrol stations, and the price of catching a bus.
National’s most attention-grabbing announcement was a proposed overhaul of Jobseeker Support including introducing random drug testing, beginning with 10,000 tests in the first year, and reduced payments for people who have received Jobseeker for 2 of the previous 3 years. Under current rates, a single recipient without children could lose $48.05 a week from April 2028. Couples without children could lose a combined $81.76, while recipients with dependent children would face smaller reductions.
But it is the drug testing that has the left up in arms. They argue this is cruel and unusual punishment, but the counterargument is that working New Zealanders should not be having to pay for beneficiaries to buy drugs and that doing so makes it even more unlikely that “jobseekers” will be capable of finding employment.
National also proposes doubling the period during which someone who repeatedly leaves employment without sufficient reason is unable to receive a benefit, also extending the residency qualification period from 2 to 5 years, and providing additional work-focused support for 30,000 long term jobseekers. The party estimates the changes would save approximately $583 million over 4 years, with most of that coming from reduced payments.
The latest figures showed 218,500 people receiving Jobseeker at the end of June, up 3,300 on the previous quarter. The Government’s target of reducing that number to 140,000 by 2030 is looking pretty out of reach as things are now.
David Seymour thinks National isn’t going far enough. ACT wants tougher restrictions introduced sooner and is proposing that some long term beneficiaries receive support through a card restricted to essential purchases.
National also announced a plan to redirect funding from foreign aid towards Pharmac and cancer screening, raising the familiar question of how much New Zealand should commit to helping people overseas when there are substantial unmet needs at home.
On transport, the Greens are back plucking from the magic money tree and promising free public transport for children, students, Community Services Card holders, and Total Mobility users, with fares capped at $2 for everyone else. They also want expanded passenger rail, including an overnight Auckland to Wellington service, a restored Southerner between Christchurch and Dunedin, and an extension of Te Huia to Tauranga.
Labour, meanwhile, has gone on a tear of small policies targeted at addressing common bug bears. They turned attention to airlines, proposing to force automatic refunds for cancelled or significantly changed flights, clearer pricing information, greater scrutiny of airline profitability, and improved access to airport infrastructure for smaller carriers. Consumer NZ welcomed the attention to competition but pointed out that some parts of the policy are superfluous as they are already covered by existing consumer protections and regulatory oversight.
Labour is also promising to make surplus NZTA land available for independent petrol stations, require more reporting on fuel prices, and improve independent mechanics’ access to vehicle repair information.
KiwiSaver is again a focus of policy with ACT wanting to remove tax on qualifying investment returns and NZ First proposing eventual contributions of 10% from employers and employees.
And the extraordinary enthusiasm for intervening in markets continues unabated by all except ACT. Labour wants stronger controls on supermarkets, banks, fuel suppliers, and airlines. As we know the Greens are proposing even more intervention, including public ownership of supermarkets and NZ First has floated buying back BNZ. National is proposing to break up Foodstuffs subject to the Commerce Commission.
David Seymour described the whole debate as a “dumpster fire” this week, arguing that the parties are competing to threaten or regulate businesses while ignoring the country’s underlying productivity problems. And former Labour minister Steve Maharey agrees with him saying New Zealand wants the services and living standards of a wealthy country without consistently generating the income required to pay for them.
National’s newfound willingness to interfere in private business has produce some aggressive backlash from their own supporters. Usually a business lunch would be a comfortable event for the Nats, but this week Nicola Willis found herself on the other end of a frustrated rant from Pak’nSave Clarence Street, Hamilton, owner Tony Rider. He unleashed on National’s Deputy Leader and her explanations did nothing to soothe his anger leading to Tama Potaka having to intervene and leaving Willis in tears.
Election 2026: Party lists, polling, and political own goals
New Zealand First unveiled its party list this week and it has some political heft along with a few surprises. The top four positions go to this term’s high performers in Winston Peters, Shane Jones, Casey Costello, and Mark Patterson. They are followed by former National MP Alfred Ngaro who is working very hard to bring in the conservative and Christian voters particularly from Pasifika communities. Then broadcaster and former MP Michael Laws is 6th, former National MP Harete Hipango-Brownlie 7th, former Chair of the Financial Markets Authority and financial heavyweight Craig Stobo 8th, and former All Black captain Taine Randell 9th.
Which puts several newcomers above sitting MPs Jenny Marcroft (10th), Andy Foster, David Wilson, and Jamie Arbuckle. The rankings demonstrate the renewal Peters wants in his caucus and those selected at the top bring significant previous experience in politics, business, and public life. There are also whispers that Taine Randell could be a future leader of the party about to undergo an apprenticeship from the 2 kaumatua leading the party.
In Mt Albert things are getting even more interesting with a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll putting Labour’s Helen White ahead on 31%, followed by National’s Melissa Lee on 26%, Green MP Ricardo Menéndez March on 18%, and Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong on 8%. The left’s split could prove costly if Lee is able to gain some percentage points prior to the election. It also shows Opportunity’s realistic route into Parliament is dependent on clearing the party vote threshold rather than winning a seat.
There is also considerable attention on the Māori electorates as Te Pāti Māori pursues its electorate-focused overhang strategy. A Whakaata Māori-Curia poll in Hauraki-Waikato has Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke comfortably ahead of Labour’s Kingi Kiriona by 45% to 26%, with 17% undecided and in Waiariki, Rawiri Waititi is polling at 42%, well ahead of the Greens’ Tania Waikato on 16% and Labour’s Toni Boynton on 14%. Interestingly, despite the explicit call for just electorate votes, in Waiariki party vote polling shows Labour is on 24%, Te Pāti Māori on 23%, and the Greens on 22%.
There was also a rather awkward discovery that Labour’s high ranking (13th) new candidate, former police superintendent Rakesh Naidoo, sits on the board of the New Zealand Performance Academy, a charter school. Unfortunately for Labour, Hipkins has promised to abolish the charter school model. Even more unfortunately, Hipkins apparently did not know Naidoo was involved with one. Taken by surprise Hipkins said Naidoo would have to resign from the board if he entered Parliament.
Winston Peters wishes James Christmas a very merry election
Yesterday produced perhaps the week’s most popcorn-worthy political exchange courtesy of ACT’s Tāmaki candidate James Christmas and Winston Peters. Christmas posted a “friendly” video addressed directly to Peters following his comments about abortion during an interview with Family First’s Bob McCoskrie. Peters had said that while he supported legal and safe abortion, the issue could, depending on timing and circumstances, shade into what he described as murder. Christmas warned Peters against bringing those views into the Tāmaki electorate and pledging to stand up for women’s bodily autonomy. This earned him this response from Peters on X:
“A friendly message to James Christmas.
Thanks for the revealing post.
Good luck with your leadership ambitions for the Act Party - you fit right in.
PS
I’ve read the pro Maori co-governance book you wrote - the one that talks about the need for Maori self-determination.”
Tāmaki had been staunchly blue until Brooke van Velden from ACT won it this term. Her victory was seen by some as a rejection of the conservatism of the incumbent National MP Simon O’Connor so Christmas’ video could be a deliberate signal to the women of the electorate that he is not socially conservative.
During the interview with Family First, Peters also took aim at the Conversion Therapy law, a piece of legislation which is in my (gay) view a total misnomer as it actually facilitates and encourages the most pervasive form of modern conversion therapy - transitioning kids who would grow up to be happy and healthy gay adults. He subsequently clarified his comments saying NZ First was open to reviewing it rather than repealing it altogether which would make me personally very happy as this could result in the right protections remaining while the terrible ones are removed.
The Christian CEO Network hosted a debate between Christian candidates Paul Teio (New Zealand Loyal), Hannah Tamaki (Vision New Zealand), Greg Fleming (National), Doug Lyell (Conservative Party), and Elliot Ikilei (NZ First).
Responding to the question “Christianity has been booted out of Parliament. How would you go about restoring that?” National MP Greg Fleming said “With respect, I disagree with the observation… I found that my Christian faith has been very warmly received and deeply respected.”
NZ First’s Elliot Ikilei disagreed saying “Chris Luxon leader of the National Party got on his knees to bow down to a false god” and that “Christianity needs to have a backbone”.
Ikilei has not been afraid to ruffle feathers at various debates this campaign. Following an event at Papakura Marae, he pointed out on X that “the only two of us with Māori ancestry were me and Hannah [Tamaki]. Everyone else was lecturing us on honouring the Treaty, partnership, and co-governance.”
He said to those gathered “There is no partnership. There is no co-governance. These co-governance things are racist policies that got brought up in the Finlayson National Party era. We do not believe that race laws and race policies help anyone.”
A police officer, a teacher and a psychologist walk into a disciplinary hearing…
There were a few professional misconduct stories this week involving people who were in positions of trust.
Former Waikato police constable Haimona Keelim Tamati-Te Paki has been stripped of his 2022 New Zealand Police Sportsperson of the Year award after being convicted of stealing $68,000 from a vulnerable pensioner. He was assigned to help the woman after she had already experienced financial fraud. Instead, he accompanied her to the bank, took $12,000 in cash, and subsequently visited her home repeatedly, secretly accessing her online banking through her mobile phone and transferring another $56,000 into his own account. When the woman discovered the theft and contacted her bank, staff traced the money to the police officer supposedly investigating her original fraud complaint. Tamati-Te Paki was sentenced in March to 11 months’ home detention, with the judge taking into account his gambling addiction, steps towards rehabilitation and offer of reparation.
Former Whanganui Girls’ College teacher Rupert de Smidt has lost his registration following stalking-related misconduct involving a student. For almost two years he anonymously left jewellery, Valentine’s cards, and other gifts for a teenaged girl, putting them in her school bag, on her car, and even in the letterbox at her home. She initially believed the gifts came from another student, until CCTV footage revealed her teacher was responsible. A subsequent examination of his school laptop discovered he had been accessing pornography as well as looking at the girl’s social media profile and school ball photographs.
Then the tribunal found he repeatedly touched another student inappropriately during class, placing his hand high on her thigh, and sometimes underneath her skirt. She had reported the behaviour to the school, but no formal action was taken. She was then assigned to one of his classes the following year and her parents had to demand that she be moved. She later reported it again to another staff member and some received support, but it begs the question of why the school failed to act when the pupil first reported a teacher putting his hand up her skirt. There is no indication that criminal charges or investigations have occured.
In another professional disciplinary case, a senior clinical psychologist was found guilty of misconduct after she proposed to adopt a patient having developed what was as an inappropriate “maternal” relationship with a vulnerable young patient. The psychologist told her client she loved her, sent 186 text messages in a single day, showered her with gifts, and gave her 5-10 minute hugs during therapy sessions.
In tearful evidence, the psychologist explained that she had been unconsciously trying to fill a maternal void from her own childhood trauma. Her lawyer argued she had already suffered enough after nearly two years suspended from practice. The patient, rather understandably, disagreed. The tribunal has found professional misconduct but reserved its decision on penalties and name suppression.
A particularly grim few weeks for New Zealand
Police, meanwhile, continue investigating several disturbing deaths. This includes the death of Braydon Hepworth (21) in Christchurch following the discovery that his body had been concealed inside a flat occupied by someone he knew. The property is understood to be one of two flats used by a community organisation to house former prison inmates. Police have described the death as unexplained, and an initial postmortem examination was inconclusive.
Police have also now launched an investigation into the suspicious death of Waiheke Island mother Chantelle McLaughlin-Middlemiss (32), and the circumstances are very strange indeed. On June 2, emergency services were called to her home at 2.42pm following a report that she might already be dead, but they found her alive and determined there were no immediate concerns. However, less than an hour later, at approximately 3.30pm, people known to her family returned to the property and discovered her unresponsive in bed and she could not be revived.
Detective Senior Sergeant Martin Friend believes a small number of people have information that could provide answers and that divided loyalties may be preventing them from coming forward. No arrests or charges have been reported.
In Wellington, an amount human blood significant enough to rouse police concern was discovered in a pedestrian tunnel and has prompted a police inquiry.
There has been a horrifying run of violent deaths in New Zealand over the past few weeks. On 4 September, a man and woman were found shot dead in Nelson in a suspected murder-suicide. Three days later, a woman and her two children, aged 3 and 11 months, were killed in Rotorua and a man who also lived at the address is “assisting police”. Make of that what you will. On 19 September, another woman was found dead in Newlands, Wellington, prompting a homicide investigation and again a man is “assisting police”. On 23 September, a child was murdered in Otautau, Southland, with two 19 year olds subsequently charged with murder. An unverified local source says they are the child's mother and her boyfriend.
On the West Coast, Police are investigating the deaths of 2 people found at separate properties near Reefton on 29 September. Emergency services were called to a property at around 7.50am, where they discovered a body and further enquiries led officers to another property, where a second person was found dead. Police have since identified the deceased as Chelsey Anne Russell (34) and Samuel Frederick Bass (45). Detective Inspector Geoff Baber confirmed a homicide investigation was underway but said Police were not seeking anybody else in connection with the deaths which suggests another murder-suicide.
The very next day, Sarah Megan Brown (37) was found dead in Christchurch and a man (52) was charged with her murder. Neighbours reported hearing a series of loud bangs during the night, and Sarah’s landlord says she understood she had visited a neighbouring flat around 3am seeking alcohol and been turned away. The landlord further alleges that Sarah returned around 5.30am and was stabbed.
On 1 October, a man was killed in broad daylight in Glen Innes and another man (33) has been charged with murder. That same day, Dahlia Neville (6), her brother Hunter (9), and their father, Edward Courtenay James Neville (40), were found dead at their Papatoetoe home. Investigators have said they are not looking for anybody else in connection with the deaths and this suggests yet another murder-suicide situation.
And in Glendene, West Auckland, a baby was among 3 people injured in a horrific knife attack at a home on Sunday 4 October. A neighbour heard a woman crying and went to investigate with her partner and brother. They entered the house to find blood on the floor and an injured baby. Police later confirmed that one patient had undergone surgery and remained critically ill, another was in a serious but stable condition, and the 3rd was recovering at home. A woman (33) has been charged with attempted murder and was scheduled to appear in court via a bedside hearing which suggests she is the one “in a serious but stable condition”. Police say everyone involved knew one another and they are not looking for anybody else.
These are nine separate incidents in barely a month, involving 14 deaths and 3 more people injured in an alleged attempted murder including several very young children. Not all the circumstances have been established, but it is very concerning how many of these cases involve children, families, or intimate partners. Hat tip to caffeineworship from X who pulled together this list.
Famous faces and serious charges
Hollywood actor Cliff Curtis (58) is facing charges of reckless driving and driving with excess blood alcohol following a serious crash on Auckland’s waterfront on 23 September. Curtis was allegedly driving a customised matte-black Tesla when it collided with a parked taxi. The taxi driver, Gagan Deep Singh, had to be cut free from the wreckage by firefighters. He suffered eight broken ribs, a broken collarbone, a fractured hip, injuries to his hands, a head wound, and internal bleeding around his lungs. Other people were also injured in the crash, and Curtis himself was hospitalised with internal injuries. He is due in court on 15 October.
And to round off the grim week, a “prominent New Zealand sportsman” who competes internationally appeared in Auckland District Court on Thursday facing family violence charges, including assaulting a person in a family relationship, assault with intent to injure, and impeding breathing or blood circulation (strangulation). He has been granted interim name suppression, along with suppression of other details of the case, and is due back in court next month.
Government transparency, now with 394% more bad maths
Research commissioned by the Ministry of Justice to inform possible changes to the Official Information Act has attracted criticism this week after the Herald’s David Fisher examined the documents and discovered that it contained an assortment of mathematical errors, questionable assumptions, and inconsistencies. Former chief ombudsman Sir Peter Boshier has warned that the reports should not be relied upon as evidence for sound decision making.
The Ministry spent $57,000 on two reports looking at the growing cost and administrative burden of OIA requests and the reports were intended to help inform decisions about whether the law needed reform. The reports’ headline claim was that OIA requests had increased by 394% since 2016, but the actual increase, once the arithmetic was corrected, was 294.5%. An estimate suggesting the system could cost as much as $750 million annually turned out not to be based on any formal calculation supported by data. And the Ministry conceded it could not be certain whether Privacy Act requests had been included in the OIA numbers.
There were contradictory descriptions of overhead costs, mathematical inconsistencies in estimates of complex requests, and confusion over how many recommendations the consultants had actually made. One report claimed the average cost of responding to OIA requests was escalating substantially. Yet its own figures suggested the average cost had actually moved from approximately $1,160 per request in 2016 to $1,156 in 2025.
The Ministry has now acknowledged that the consultants were not experts in the OIA. Excellent.
The possible reforms being discussed include charging for requests, expanding refusal grounds, changing the definition of official information and restricting which bodies are covered by the Act.
Woolworths and the terrible, horrible, enormous 0.38% profit margin
Woolworths New Zealand has returned to profit, which will no doubt provide another opportunity for politicians to explain how supermarkets are responsible for the cost of living crisis. The company’s newly released financial statements show sales of $8.49 billion for the 2026 financial year and an after tax profit of… wait for it… $32 million.
Sounds like a lot to those of us struggling to cover bills, but that is a net profit margin of approximately 0.38%. In other words, Woolworths only made about 38 cents of after tax profit for every $100 in revenue. The company recorded a $32.3 million loss the previous year and has experienced a substantial decline in profitability. Profits averaged more than $150 million annually between 2017 and 2023.
None of this proves that the supermarket sector is competitive nor does it tell us whether particular products are overpriced, whether suppliers receive a fair deal, or whether barriers to entry are protecting the existing major chains. But it certainly complicates the popular political narrative that supermarkets are simply sitting on enormous profits extracted from helpless shoppers. The Greens have been particularly enthusiastic about the idea that supermarket companies are making excessive profits, repeatedly claiming the sector extracts around $1 million a day more than it should.
The problem is that the underlying costs of running a supermarket are high. The price on the shelf reflects purchasing, freight, wages, electricity, refrigeration, premises, wastage, compliance, and a long list of other expenses before shareholders receive anything. If Woolworths somehow eliminated its entire reported after-tax profit and returned every cent to customers through lower prices, that saving would amount to approximately 0.38% of sales, assuming everything else remained unchanged. That is not going to transform anyone’s weekly grocery bill.
In the courts: Another chapter in New Zealand's COVID reckoning
A new legal challenge has been filed concerning the requirement for teenagers to receive 2x COVID-19 vaccine doses to participate in activities covered by the vaccine pass system. The case has been brought in the name of Ashley Beulink, who was 14 when she developed vaccine-induced pericarditis after receiving her second dose in February 2022.
The second phase of the Royal Commission found that the Ministry of Health had failed to pass on specific expert advice from December 2021 warning that requiring two doses for 12–17 year olds was not justified by the relative risks, including concerns about myocarditis. But the NZ Herald later uncovered a Cabinet paper in Chris Hipkins’ name from March 2022 that explicitly referred to the advice, including the possibility that a second mandated dose exposed teenagers to unnecessary myocarditis risk which brings into question Hipkins’ reliance on the Royal Commission’s finding that ministers had not received the advice (based in large part on his own claims of this).
Teflon Hipkins has denied misleading the public and maintains that communicating medical advice was the responsibility of health professionals… despite standing on a platform giving medical advice for several years.
Beulink says the vaccine pass restrictions influenced her decision to receive the second dose because she had already experienced exclusion from social and sporting activities. The legal question is whether the requirements represented a justified limitation on young people’s right to refuse medical treatment, particularly when relevant expert advice had not been made available.
Academic freedom, subject to management approval
Distinguished theoretical chemist and Massey University Professor Peter Schwerdtfeger (no, Lua did not stand on my keyboard, that is how you spell his name) is facing a formal complaint over opinion articles he published. The Free Speech Union has written to the university challenging the process and defending Schwerdtfeger’s right to express controversial views under the protections afforded to academic freedom.
Schwerdtfeger co-authored articles 3 years ago questioning aspects of decolonisation, mātauranga Māori, university funding, and the direction of tertiary education in New Zealand. The complainant is not a student or colleague, but a Māori mother whose daughter was considering studying Māori Studies at Massey, who says the professor’s views have made her question whether the institution is suitable. She has asked Massey to investigate whether 5 opinion articles published in 2023 are consistent with its values and academic freedom policy, including provisions concerning speech that could marginalise people on grounds of ethnicity or culture. Massey has referred the matter to a formal investigative panel and a decision is expected later this month.
Best Start: Charity begins at home
Childcare giant Best Start is New Zealand’s largest early childhood education provider, operating more than 250 centres and employing around 3,750 full time equivalent staff. Its latest accounts show annual revenue of $433 million, including $317 million in government funding, and another $115 million in fees paid by parents.
But it is what happens to some of that money that raises eyebrows. In 2015, Best Start’s founders, Wayne and Chloe Wright, sold their childcare business to a charitable organisation they had established for $332 million. Rather than the charity paying the purchase price upfront, the Wrights effectively lent it the money.
The charity has spent the past decade using income generated by Best Start to repay that loan to the family’s private trusts. So far, approximately $278 million has flowed back to the Wright family in tax-free loan repayments, including $28.8 million in the latest financial year. The outstanding balance is now $53.9 million.
The payments are tax-free because they are repayments of the loan rather than taxable income. There is nothing unlawful about such an arrangement, but it does mean that hundreds of millions of dollars have flowed from a charitable organisation to the private interests of the family who established it.
Best Start also rents approximately a third of its childcare centres from private Wright family interests. In the latest financial year, the charity paid another $16.7 million in rent and reimbursements to various family trusts.
To be fair to them, Best Start is providing a service that parents need and employing thousands of people. And early childhood education is funded by the Government regardless of whether the provider operates as a commercial company or a charity. Nevertheless, there is something unpalatable about a family establishing a charity, selling their own highly profitable business to it, and then spending the next decade receiving hundreds of millions of dollars from that charity in repayment of the purchase price, while also collecting rental income from properties it occupies.
Something being perfectly legal does not automatically make it an especially good deal for the public.
🇬🇧🇺🇸🇮🇱 This week in Islamic extremism terrorising the West
In Britain, allegations have emerged concerning Iranian state-linked operatives plotting to target journalists based in the United Kingdom. Iranian dissidents and journalists working overseas have long faced threats because of their criticism of the regime in Tehran.
Further details about the attempted hijacking of a flight bound for Israel have emerged, including scrutiny of the accused flydubai co-pilot’s radicalisation and time in Australia, New Zealand, and Britain which he previously described as the golden years of his religious commitment.
Hamam al-Hammami (29) allegedly intended to crash the aircraft into Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport and investigators believe he may originally have planned the attack for July but postponed it because a friend was among the crew. How on earth he got another job flying passenger planes given Oman Air removed him from flying duties because of concerns about extremist beliefs is a mystery. The Guardian reports that he may specifically have sought a job flying to Israel in order to carry out the attack.
And the warning signs were hardly subtle. Researchers recovered nearly 3,000 posts and responses from a now deleted X account attributed to Hammami, finding, in addition to radical Islamist beliefs, repeated misogynistic and homophobic abuse, including explicit threats of violence against women and references to stomping on women’s heads.
In the United States, the FBI arrested Sheikhdoon Mohamud (18) over an alleged ISIS-inspired mass shooting plot targeting the Mall of America in Minnesota. According to court documents, he purchased an AK-47 and 200 rounds of ammunition from an FBI confidential source and discussed attacking a festival at the shopping centre. Investigators say he expressed antisemitic motives and believed that the mall was Jewish-owned.
Though the political motives have not been established, in Britain, 2 Latvian nationals aged 32 and 36 were arrested after allegedly breaching the perimeter fence at RAF Molesworth, a highly sensitive military facility housing American and NATO intelligence operations. The men were discovered inside the base in the early hours of Thursday after security patrols noticed an abandoned vehicle and a breach in the fence.
They were initially arrested on suspicion of trespass and criminal damage, but the investigation has escalated to suspected offences under the National Security Act. Counterterrorism Police are investigating. Police say there is currently no evidence connecting the incident to the separate suspected Iranian-linked plot at RAF Fairford. But it is another wake up call for the British military about how increasingly vulnerable they are to terrorism and foreign state attacks.
🇬🇧 John Cleese commits the crime of criticising a religion
John Cleese has become the subject of a complaint to Britain’s Prevent counter-extremism programme following a series of posts criticising Islam. The complaint alleges that Cleese’s commentary demonises Muslims and risks encouraging communal hostility.
Cleese has responded with characteristic sarcasm, describing himself as sceptical of Islam and arguing that the religion should be open to criticism and ridicule in much the same way Christianity was subjected to satire in his Monty Python and The Life of Brian.
Prevent is intended to identify people at risk of radicalisation or involvement in terrorism, hardly the appropriate destination for complaints about an elderly comedian expressing provocative opinions on religion.
🇺🇸 21 children and some horrifying questions about surrogacy
An extremely wealthy couple in California have been arrested following allegations of horrific abuse involving children they had accumulated through surrogacy arrangements. Guojun Xuan (66) and Silvia Zhang (39) are accused of operating a household where prosecutors allege children were subjected to repeated physical abuse in a house rigged up with surveillance cameras. The couple have pleaded not guilty and deny the allegations.
Prosecutors say 21 children were linked to the couple, many born to surrogate mothers recruited across the United States. Authorities also allege the couple operated a surrogacy agency from their home and controlled substantial financial resources through numerous bank accounts.
This shines a light on the concerns many feminists such as myself have raised about the surrogacy industry. It is often presented as an uncomplicated act of generosity, allowing people who cannot carry a child themselves to become parents. But commercial systems involving large amounts of money, intermediaries, and women recruited to carry babies for others create obvious opportunities for exploitation.
🇺🇸 Capital punishment meets the content economy
The United States is going to livestream the military execution of Nidal Hasan, the former Army psychiatrist responsible for killing 13 people at Fort Hood, Texas, in 2009. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth argues that people should see the consequences of acts of mass violence. Hasan is scheduled to be executed by firing squad on December 3.
I am not remotely comfortable with the idea of turning an execution into something people can watch on their phones. Capital punishment already divides people over questions of deterrence, retribution, justice, and the state’s power to take life. Broadcasting an execution introduces another issue of whether public punishment should become a spectacle.
Critics argue that turning a death into a public event risks encouraging the kind of morbid fascination that violent extremists seek. In light of chaos created by the livestreaming of contentious criminal justice cases like Lindsay Clancy’s, there are also concerns about how livestreaming this execution could cause further issues with social cohesion. Seems barbaric to me.
🇬🇧 Kemi Badenoch and Rosie Duffield named in alleged target list
Police investigating the murder of former Conservative politician, and Reform UK spokesperson, Ann Widdecombe have discovered a dossier containing the names of more than 100 prominent political figures in the home of Joshua Kerry (28) who has been charged with Widdecombe’s murder and terrorism-related offences.
The names reportedly include Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, members of her shadow cabinet, Reform politicians, independent (former Labour MP) MP Rosie Duffield and other public figures. Given the inclusion of Duffield who, like Widdecombe and Badenoch, has been a staunch advocate for women’s rights there is speculation that transactivism could be a motive.
Kerry has also been accused of conducting online reconnaissance of prominent individuals and institutions, including Reform leader Nigel Farage.
In short — other stuff that happened
- 🇨🇦 Canada has indefinitely postponed plans to extend assisted dying to people whose sole underlying condition is mental illness. The decision follows prolonged controversy over whether psychiatric illness can be deemed incurable and whether suicidal people can give sufficient consent to assisted death.
- From 1 November, new fishing restrictions will prohibit the recreational collection of marine invertebrates including mussels, limpets, and cat’s eyes from beaches, rocky shores, and rockpools across Auckland’s east and west coasts, Waiheke Island and the Coromandel. Species including cockles, kina, pāua, crabs, and rock lobster remain exempt. Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says the restrictions are intended to prevent overharvesting.
- John Minto has developed a sudden concern for taxpayer money, telling the Christchurch District Court that prosecuting him and fellow activist Ben Vorderegger over allegations they caused $10,321 worth of damage by plastering anti-Israel stickers on SodaStream products at Noel Leeming would be a waste of public funds. Both have pleaded not guilty to intentional damage, with Minto describing the alleged offending as involving merely “annoying stickers”, although Judge Gerard Lynch pointed out that the $10,000 damage figure was rather significant if established.
- Watercare has come under fire for paying its chief executives retention bonuses, with current boss Jamie Sinclair receiving $768,146 in the year to June, including a $97,050 bonus. Watercare’s chief executives exceeded Auckland Council’s pay guidance by approximately $200,000 and $100,000 respectively over the past 2 financial years. Aucklanders face water and wastewater charge increases of more than 7% this year.
- 🇺🇸 Arizona Democratic congressional candidate Bernadette Greene-Placentia says she was raped by 2 men while repairing campaign signs at approximately 2–3am on 14 August. She told investigators she was struck in the head and lost consciousness. She has since said one attacker calling her a “Democratic bitch” and speculated that she may have been targeted.
- 🇬🇧 The BBC’s latest pay-gap figures show ethnic minority employees earn more than white colleagues in 6 of its 7 pay bands, with median pay 13.2% higher in the lowest band and 5.3% higher among senior leaders.
- 🇬🇧 Scottish woman Simone Ramage (41) has received a 3 year supervision and treatment order after a judge found her responsible for the culpable homicide of her partner, Brian Kowbel, who she shot with an air rifle in February 2023. Ramage was deemed unfit to stand trial following psychiatric assessments, with the High Court in Edinburgh ordering treatment rather than imprisonment.
- Christchurch’s Kate Sheppard House has been included among 9 sites on New Zealand’s revised UNESCO World Heritage Tentative List, announced by the Department of Conservation on 7 October. The house was the base from which Kate Sheppard helped organise the campaign that secured women’s suffrage in 1893.
- Labour has promised to establish an independent redress system for survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care, but has not provided a cost or identified funding for the new agency. The current Government committed $774 million in Budget 2025 to improving redress and care safety, increased average compensation payments from around $19,000 to $30,000, and established State Redress New Zealand as a central contact point, while Labour argues that the design and cost of its proposed independent system must be determined in consultation with survivors.
- 🇬🇧 A 16 year old British schoolboy is on trial for attempted murder after allegedly stabbing a 15 year old girl in the back at Thorpe St Andrew School in March. Prosecutors say he wore black clothing and a mask, brought a kitchen knife to school, and had written extensively about his hatred of women, fascination with serial killers, and desire to kill.
- Taika Waititi has directed a Breast Cancer Foundation NZ advertisement featuring actor and model Xavier Garneau-Roughan (27) demonstrating breast self-checking techniques while shirtless in a shower. The foundation says the deliberately humorous campaign, Save Your Life – Rinse & Repeat, was designed to overcome advertising restrictions on showing women’s breasts and encourage regular checks. It has attracted accusations of “mansplaining”.
- 🇬🇧 British Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood claimed this week that almost every woman reaching northern France to cross the English Channel has probably been raped during her journey, telling The Rest Is Politics podcast that criminal trafficking gangs effectively control who gets to Britain. It’s an extraordinary admission from the minister responsible for border security and it raises serious questions about how many of the perpetrators of this sexual violence subsequently enter Britain themselves.
- 🇺🇸 Texas mother Holly Leeann Flores (37) has been charged with 2 counts of attempted capital murder and 1 of aggravated assault after allegedly stabbing her husband and their 2 children, aged 3 and 10 months, on 6 October. All 3 victims survived and were hospitalised, while Police revealed they had attended the property approximately 5 times since March for welfare-related concerns.
- 🇬🇧 UK Labour has retained former Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Holborn and St Pancras seat in a by-election, with Sagal Abdi-Wali receiving 45.2% of the votes against Green Party leader Zack Polanski’s 32.8%.
- The Greens’ announcement of plans to remove level crossings along Auckland’s Western railway line was interrupted by an actual near miss at Morningside, when a motorist drove across the tracks in front of an approaching train despite lowered barriers and flashing warning lights. Co-leaders Chlöe Swarbrick and Marama Davidson witnessed the incident, with Swarbrick describing it as an example of why the crossings need removing.
I have deliberately not covered the Cornell 7 case in this wrap up because I am almost finished a piece on it for my other Substack called Women’s Rights and Wrongs. If you want to receive it when I am done you can subscribe here.
Ani O'Brien comes from a digital marketing background, she has been heavily involved in women's rights advocacy and is a founding council member of the Free Speech Union. This article was originally published on Ani's Substack Site and is published here with kind permission.
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