Wednesday, April 27, 2022

Ross Meurant: War With China and Russia?

The trouble with Elections, is invariably they encourage utterances from some who want to be a political leader, to say pretty dumb things.

Boris Johnson and President Biden are classics- too many examples to bother reciting here but both, in my view, seek to deflect poor polling back home by promoting chaos in another country.

In the case of America, this model has also, long been adopted to ensure jobs back home within the Military Industrial Complex.

Australian Defence Minister Dutton’s recent, “Prepare for war with China and Russia”, also fits into this category – in my assessment.  Afterall, its looking to be a close election in Oz.

Perhaps if Aussie had paid more attention to Solomon Islands?  Too late now. 

Like them or loath them, China is too big to ignore as a critical component in the Globalization (invented by America) of economic production and also as a consumer of raw materials from abroad.  

New Zealand depends on China for dairy and timber exports.  There is no alternative for either export.  New Zealand depends on Chinese students and tourists. Period. 

I’m no fan of New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, but I must congratulate her on her recent – sane statement apropos China, that New Zealand seeks to find a middle or neutral ground balancing our trade dependence while opposing perceived wrongs of the Chinese government.

Two years ago, Fortescue’s Mining Magnate Andrew Forrest made a valiant effort to save the Aussie coal industry trade with China – earning rebuke from politicians who, assured of their monthly salary irrespective of the success of trade relations, cashed in on paranoia and the xenophobic.

When it comes economic survival, in most parliaments there is a massive difference between commercial acuity of an industrialist or commercial magnate or even a farmer sweating out days in the fields of production, and a politician,

In the current Labour government, for example, the number of MPs who have NOT been senior management level in an enterprise dependent on productivity and sales, or who have practical experience of economic survival (even running their own café), by my calculations, is terrifying.

Many police and school teachers and NGO employees are in this same category.  Government bureaucrats get paid, rain or sunshine.  What’s worse, bureaucrats soon learn that the best way to preserve their jobs is not to make a mistake – and the best way not to make an error, is do nothing.

[Believe me.  Afterall, I was once a police officer and later a Member of Parliament.] 

Like it or not, China is well on its way to replacing the Dying Empire of America who will join Britain and France and Germany and Italy and Spain and Portugal – in the embers of Empire builders who’ve had their day.

As for Mr Dutton’s war on Russia rant, at a time when politicians on one side of the Russian Ukraine affair herald the strength of the European economy and the will of the politicians to defeat an undefeatable adversary, the side of the story Western media don’t run is the chronic plight of Europe’s dependence on Russian oil/gas and massive damage sanctions are doing in their own countries.

Germany industrialists are not happy with sanctions.  Nor are the farmers in France.  Argentina has said sanctions won’t stop the war and India and China put their people and their economies, ahead of America’s quest for world hegemony via sanctions

For they who get their daily data from other than BBC and American influenced NZ mainstream, a case can be made that President Putin clearly had been gearing up for this Ukraine affair for some years - probably since Ukraine failed to honour the Minsk accord ceasefire after Russia re-took Crimea, and perpetually shelled civilians in the Don bas region.

In-spite of the best efforts of Western media to portray Russia on the brink of collapse, sanctions over time have compelled Russia to become self-sufficient – totally.   From hypersonic gliders to more grain than their bread ovens can bake. 

As always in politics: Be careful for what you wish.

The reality for Europe is, the imminence of economic chaos far exceeds problems in Russia- which enjoys trade and no sanctions with the two most populace countries on the planet: India and China.

The big question for Australia remains:  Is the former policeman Peter Dutton concerned about his government’s polling and playing to the China xenophobia and anti-Russian sentiment or does he seriously believe that Australia has a hope in Hades of taking on China and Russia in a military clash?

PS Bye the way.  The turban imposed on the head of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, during his recent visit to India to facilitate trade and urge distance with Russia, was the traditional head gear worn by “Traders” – who are one level above “Untouchables”.  Perhaps a hidden message?

Ross Meurant, graduate in politics both at university and as a Member of Parliament; formerly police inspector in charge of Auckland spies & V.I.P. security; currently Honorary Consul for an African state, Trustee and CEO of Russian owned commercial assets in New Zealand and has international business interest.


Denis McCarthy said...

One advantage of New Zealand being a small country is that even the most sensitive and alarmist leaders of other countries can hardly conclude that we are a threat to them.
I see no conflict between maintaining civil communication between other governments with different systems to ours and maintaining our sovereignty and independence.
I suggest that New Zealand needs strong and workable defence arrangements with our traditional allies and that New Zealand must be prepared to shape up and play its part.
China has continually stated its peaceful intentions and at the same time has built up military outposts in the South China Sea.
While Australia and New Zealand would certainly work for peaceful co-existence we cannot blithely assume that there will never be military threats against us.
Both countries need anti ship and anti air systems to deter possible aggression. "If you want peace prepare for war."
We might consider the way Switzerland has protected itself over the last hundred years.
Finally succeeding New Zealand governments should consider the risks of relying too much on one country for the export of our products. This reliance can be used as a weapon against us should disagreements arise in the future.
So hope for the best, plan for the best, act for the best but build up the capacity to protect New Zealand should an adverse situation arise.

Simon Cohen said...

British Prime Minster Maggie Thatcher’s Falkland’s War in the 1980s is a case in point. Trouble at Mill (coal miners’ revolt) back home was done and dusted with her declaration of War on Argentina.

I am often intrigued by the quoting of historical inaccuracies by bloggers to support their arguments. Chris Trotter is a constant offender in this regard and in this post we have Ross Meurant doing the same. The Falklands War took place in mid 1982 and the Coal Miners Strike in 1984/85. And Thatcher did not declare war on Argentina. There was no declaration of war by either country. And Thatcher despatched a military force only to expel the Argentinian invaders from the Falklands. There is very little doubt that if she had failed to do so she would have lost the next election for reasons that had nothing to do with a miners strike in two years in the future.

ross meurant said...

Thanks for your help.

Simon Cohen said...

Thanks for being so gracious Ross.

Peter van der Stam, Napier said...

I am surprised by the fact that Ozz and NZ are so dumm to gamble on one trading partner.
Europe is dependent on oil/gas from Russia/Ukraine.
Why?? Don't even dare to answer this question.
NZ, Like Europe have closed the oil and gas wells, because the " global warmers" (read Greens) wanted it so.
Russia saw this coming, and whatever the west is doing, (sanctions or not ) Russia is pulling the correct stick.
Another refugee crisis.
Why did Ardern send military materiel instead of using the money to get Ukrainians over here?
It is most probably all old rubbish, like all the American and EU aid. All obsolete. Ukrainian soldiers don't even know how most of it works, apart from the T-72 tank.