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Monday, May 10, 2021

GWPF Newsletter: French energy threat leaves Britain facing the nuclear option

 





Jersey crisis exposes UK's dangerous reliance on undersea power cables

In this newsletter:

1) French energy threat leaves Britain facing the nuclear option
Ben Marlow, The Daily Telegraph, 6 May 2021
 
2) Jersey crisis exposes UK's dangerous reliance on undersea power cables
The Daily Telegraph, 6 May 2021


3) Au revoir! Two Royal Navy ships send French fishermen scurrying back home
Daily Mail, 6 May 2021 
 
4) Britain threatens to cut France out of future electricity links
The Daily Telegraph, 6 May 2021
  
5) Daniel Hannan: Emmanuel Macron, the new Napoleon? No, he's a Poundland Putin
Daily Mail, 6 May 2021

Full details:

1) French energy threat leaves Britain facing the nuclear option
Ben Marlow, The Daily Telegraph, 6 May 2021
 
The mere fact that a foreign territory could petulantly flick a switch and plunge part of the British isles into darkness should serve as a wake-up call for the UK and energy policy in a post-Brexit world.
 
French ceased to be the lingua franca of diplomacy decades ago as Paris’s influence in the world waned. Still, it’s a shock to see Brexit and the pandemic turn France into Europe’s enfant terrible.

Stung by another surge in Covid cases, widespread criticism of its sluggish vaccine programme, and with opinion polls giving Marine Le Pen an outside chance of an earthquake election victory next year, Macron’s cabinet can no longer be trusted to behave properly on the international stage.
 
After its outrageous threat to block vaccine exports to the UK, the French government has stooped to a new low as a row over post-Brexit fishing rights deepens.

Having previously threatened to block UK financial firms from operating in Europe if Britain does not give French fisherman access to British waters, France is now threatening to cut off electricity supplies to Jersey over the new licensing regime for fishing off the island’s coast.

It’s the sort of desperate and disproportionate act you would expect from a sworn enemy of the West like Vladimir Putin, not one of our oldest and closest European allies. Indeed, when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, it halted gas supplies to the Ukraine as part of the dispute.
 
Still, no one really expects the French to follow through with its intimidation tactics, even if relations are depressingly low. A warning of “retaliatory measures” from French Maritime Minister Annick Girardin will be treated as a hollow threat from a government desperate to cover up for multiple failures during a crisis.

Nevertheless, the mere fact that a foreign territory could petulantly flick a switch and plunge part of the British isles into darkness should serve as a wake-up call for the UK and energy policy in a post-Brexit world.
 
In a bid to drive polluting fossil fuels out of the energy system, the government has piled into renewables with clean power generating more electricity than gas and coal last year, for the first time ever.

But with the intermittent nature of wind and solar power making them less reliable, the UK has been forced to obtain increasing amounts of electricity from Europe through a network of giant subsea interconnectors - transmission cables hundreds of miles long that allow electricity to flow from one country to another - when the wind’s not blowing.
 
The UK currently has four active interconnectors linking it to Belgium, France, the Netherlands and the Republic of Ireland, providing about 7pc of the UK’s electricity supply but this is set to increase dramatically.

There are plans for at least 10 more, including a 150-mile cable between Lovedean in Hampshire and Normandy costing £1.1bn that will provide another 5pc of our energy needs. The North Sea Network (NSN) interconnector - providing green electricity from Norwegian hydropower stations -  will be the longest in the world. 
 
Every modern country needs back-up power but if our so-called friends are willing to turn vital shared infrastructure into political weapons then the case for building energy resilience has never been more pressing
 
New nuclear is the obvious alternative but for too long, attempts to establish a modern nuclear power capability have floundered amid spiralling costs, opposition from green campaigners, and the geopolitical nightmare that comes with financing construction with Chinese money and Beijing’s untested technology. 

That leaves mini-nukes, a technology where Rolls-Royce already excels. They are more modern, cheaper, and greener than old nuclear power and could become a genuine export industry with proper investment. 
 
It would also help to revive one of Britain’s most important engineering companies after it was laid low by the sharp downturn in aviation. The case for mini-nukes to become a cornerstone of energy policy is overwhelming.
 
2) Jersey crisis exposes UK's dangerous reliance on undersea power cables
The Daily Telegraph, 6 May 2021

France's threat to cut off Jersey's electricity over a post-Brexit fishing dispute raises wider questions for Britain's energy policies













It took 12 months, 1,000 engineers and 3.2 million working hours to get it running. 

Today, Britain's 149-mile subsea power cable between Hampshire and Normandy can trade enough electricity to power up to a million homes, equivalent to 1.2pc of Britain’s electricity demands.
 
It is the second subsea electricity cable, or interconnector, between the UK and France, and the fourth of 12 planned interconnectors to the continent.
 
And despite Britain's divorce from the EU, the UK's reliance on electricity connections to the continent is growing. New links are planned that mean up to 25pc of British power could be met by imports in 2024.

As well as providing cheaper power from the continent, the cables mean Britain can export power when it is producing too much - an increasingly important service given its growing use of wind turbines. 
 
Yet the risk of relying on such power flows was thrown into sharp relief last night after France threatened to shut down Jersey's power supply.

The move was triggered by a fight over post-Brexit fishing rights in which France accused the UK of using red tape to limit fishing in breach of the agreement made with the EU last year.
 
Jersey receives around 95pc of its electricity from France through three undersea cables.
 
Jersey Electricity insisted that "in the unlikely event electricity supplies from France are disrupted" its power stations at La Collette Power Station and Queens Road, which have a joint capacity of about 115 megawatts and run on gas and diesel, can meet requirements. 

France may not trigger a blackout in Jersey, but its threat raises the prospect of similar actions against power flows to Britain as fishing and other political rows rear their head in the wake of Brexit.
 
As the deadline for a Brexit deal approached in October, President Macron said the EU could block the UK's energy supplies to the European market unless a deal was reached on fishing. Both fisheries and energy market access will be renegotiated in 2026. 
 
Such threats place the country in a difficult position. In 2019, interconnectors supplied 8pc, or 25 TWh, of total electricity consumption in Britain, rising to 9pc in the first six months of 2020.  
 
Overall, Britain imports far more electricity than it exports on interconnectors.  In 2020, total interconnector exports were 4.5 TWh compared to imports of 22.9 TWh.

Interconnectors are particularly important at times of low temperatures and low wind supply in Britain. The price British traders paid for interconnector capacity briefly shot up from €10 euros per MWh to above €900 (£776) during a particularly cold still period at the start of the year. 

Their role is becoming more and more important as Britain and countries across Europe increase their production of renewable energy, which is intermittent. When a country produces more power than it needs, for example on very windy days, markets abroad can buy the power. 

The alternative can be to pay wind farms to stop spinning, which many decry as a huge waste of money. Another option is to build vast amounts of battery storage, which is technically challenging. 
 
Full post
 
3) Au revoir! Two Royal Navy ships send French fishermen scurrying back home
Daily Mail, 6 May 2021

Two Royal Navy gunships sent French fishermen scurrying back home today after one of them rammed a British boat during an attempted blockade of the island sparked by a row over post-Brexit fishing rights.













The fishermen said they were ready to restage the Battle of Trafalgar as they descended on the harbour this morning. But by 1.30pm the armada had given in and was seen heading back towards France.

Don Thompson, president of Jersey Fishermen's Association, told Sky News that the French boats blockading the harbour had returned home but were not dropping their demands, as the EU accused Jersey of breaking the Brexit withdrawal agreement.

France had sent two patrol craft to face-off with two Royal Navy ships in the Channel, which were there to marshal the 100 demonstrating ships in Jersey.

The Athos and FS Themis hurtled towards the British Crown dependency to confront HMS Severn and HMS Tamar - despite them being far superior in size and power.

But they came to a halt before entering UK waters and watched on from afar. Jersey's minister of external affairs Ian Gorst said the ship had not asked permission from Britain or the island to enter.

The British boats are armed with cannon and machine guns and are roaming the Channel after Paris warned yesterday it could cut off electricity to the island - which is largely supplied via an undersea cable.

The European Commission said today the terms of the EU/UK trade deal are not being met in waters off the coast of Jersey, due to the conditions imposed on licences for French fishing boats there.

But Boris Johnson reiterated his 'unequivocal support' for the island during a phone call with its officials, adding the two Royal Navy vessels are set to remain in place as a precaution.

The sabre-rattling Prime Minister will be keeping his eye on events in the Channel throughout today as voters take to the polling booths in the local elections.

The blockade was reminiscent of the Cod Wars in the North Atlantic in the 1970s - when the Royal Navy stopped Icelandic boats from interfering with British trawlers - which were revisited last year as Britain readied Royal Navy ships to patrol its fishing waters if tempers flared.

The row is the result of Jersey implementing new requirements under the terms of the UK-EU trade deal for boats to submit evidence of their past fishing activities in order to receive a licence to carry on operating in its waters.
 
4) Britain threatens to cut France out of future electricity links
The Daily Telegraph, 6 May 2021
 
Britain is set to review its energy links with France after the country threatened to cut off Jersey’s power supply in a row over fishing rights.

A senior Whitehall source described France’s actions as “outrageous” and said the UK would have to take a more cautious view of France as an energy partner.

It is understood that Britain could seek to route future giant undersea power cable projects towards the Netherlands, which it now views as a more reliable partner than France. A source said France had “weaponised” its electricity exports.

Jersey, the self-governing British crown dependency with about 110,000 residents, receives about 95pc of its electricity from France through three undersea cables.

It was thrown into turmoil as France responded to the UK’s decision to authorise 41 ships to fish in waters off Jersey. The French fisheries ministry claimed the permits came with demands that had not been discussed or authorised.

France’s seas minister, Annick Girardin, said she was “disgusted” by the move. She told France’s National Assembly: “In the [Brexit] deal there are retaliatory measures. Well, we’re ready to use them.

“Regarding Jersey, I remind you of the delivery of electricity along underwater cables ... even if it would be regrettable if we had to do it, we’ll do it if we have to.”

A government spokesman said: “To threaten Jersey like this is clearly unacceptable and disproportionate.”

Whitehall discussions over the future of energy links with France discussions could jeopardise a controversial project led by Tory donor Alexander Temerko to build a £1.1bn power cable between Hampshire and Le Havre that his company Aquind said will be able to provide enough electricity for about 5m homes.

However the row is not expected to affect the Government’s attitude towards EDF, the French state-owned utility which is in negotiations with Government about building a new nuclear power station, Sizewell C in Suffolk. EDF is already building Hinkley Point C nuclear power station, in Somerset.

Full post
 
5) Daniel Hannan: Emmanuel Macron, the new Napoleon? No, he's a Poundland Putin
Daily Mail, 6 May 2021
 
Perhaps Macron wants to burnish his nationalist credentials. Perhaps he calculates that bashing the Brits plays well with the home crowd. Or perhaps he sees himself as another Bonaparte, leading France to glory.



























A stable democracy doesn’t threaten to cut off its neighbour’s energy supplies. That is the sort of behaviour we associate with rogue states.
 
Putin’s Russia, for example, sometimes resorts to ‘gas diplomacy’ to browbeat Ukraine and other nearby states. An energy blockade is calculatedly bellicose — if not exactly an act of war, then certainly a declaration of hostile intent.
 
Incredibly, such a threat is now being made by the French government against Jersey, a British Crown dependency 14 miles from the Normandy coast, in a row over fishing licences.

In a dramatic development last night, as Boris Johnson pledged his ‘unwavering support’ for the island, it was announced that two Royal Navy patrol vessels will be sent to monitor this planned French blockade of Jersey’s main port.

Jersey gets most of its electricity from cables that run under that short stretch of water from France. A contract with the French firm EDF, which runs until 2027, provides for over 90 per cent of the island’s power — though Jersey Electricity insists that, if supplies are disrupted, it can generate whatever is needed.
 
Whether or not the French government has the legal authority to override Jersey’s contract with EDF, it certainly has the practical capacity: EDF is state-owned.
 
So when France’s Maritime Minister Annick Girardin threatens ‘retaliatory measures’ and says ‘France has many levers, notably on the supply of electricity by undersea cables to Jersey,’ we should take her seriously.

By ‘we’, I mean all of us in the United Kingdom, which is responsible for Jersey’s international relations. For this is a Brexit dispute — part of a wider EU campaign of intimidation since our decision to leave.
 
Jersey was never in the EU, and so was never fully part of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). Yet it has now been dragged into this argument because of French resentment of the UK’s reassertion of control over its territorial waters.
 
The details of the dispute are technical, almost petty. The UK and the Channel Islands recognise the historic rights of boats that have always fished in their waters. A new system for verifying such claims was brought in when we left the CFP, but not all French skippers were able to comply with it.

This is, in other words, a situation broadly comparable to the imposition of extra checks on British exporters, especially of shellfish, who sold to Continental markets. New procedures mean extra paperwork and, in some cases, lost sales.
 
How did our Government respond to that earlier dispute? It worked patiently to overcome the new bureaucracy and, in the meantime, it compensated the affected industries.
 
French ministers, by contrast, have issued public threats rather that engaging quietly with their opposite numbers.
 
Why such hysterical escalation? This is not the first time that the Channel Islands have been in our front line. Jersey was attacked in 1406 during the Hundred Years War, and again in 1779 and 1781 when France sought to take advantage of the revolution in America.
 
The island was also occupied by Germany from July 1940 until the surrender in May 1945 — a wretched experience that saw its children evacuated to mainland UK, and thus all but killed off the dialect of Norman French that had been widespread.
 
These days, France is supposed to be a Nato ally. Yet here it is threatening the sort of sanctions that might be more aptly deployed against an enemy, such as North Korea.

Part of the explanation might lie in Emmanuel Macron’s increasingly dictatorial behaviour. It is extraordinary to think that the French president was once hailed as a liberal centrist.
 
During the recent row over vaccines, for example, he made the kinds of statements that get anti-vaxxers banned from social media, claiming that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was ineffective, but simultaneously demanding legal action to get more of it.
 
His grandiose gestures — yesterday, he laid a wreath at the tomb of Napoleon, who destroyed the French republic with a putsch then plunged Europe into a series of disastrous wars — suggest autocracy rather than moderation.
 
Perhaps he is worried about the rise of Marine Le Pen, who is catching up with him in the polls. Last week, the leader of the National Rally endorsed a letter written by 20 retired generals that hinted at a military intervention to prevent France sliding into chaos — a letter backed, according to the polls, by 58 per cent of French voters.
 
Perhaps Macron wants to burnish his nationalist credentials. Perhaps he calculates that bashing the Brits (in the eyes of most French voters, Jerseymen count as Brits) plays well with the home crowd. Or perhaps he sees himself as another Bonaparte, leading France to glory.
 
Whatever the explanation, he plainly likes to exaggerate his quarrels with the UK, not least over fisheries. [...]
 
And how should we respond?
 
One obvious step is to reduce our dependence on electricity generated in the EU. We mustn’t be in a position again where we can be blackmailed as Jersey is.
 
Full post

The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.

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