Sunday, December 5, 2021

Frank Newman: New poll shows 17 Labour MPs would be out

The most recent Roy Morgan poll result has more bad news for Jacinda Ardern and her Labour Party. 

 Support for Labour is continuing to slide.  Labour was down 3.5% points to 36% - 14% off the 50% gained in the October 2020 general election, and less than the 36.9% gained in 2017 when first elected.

Based on the poll, Labour would lose 17 of its 65 MPs: Seven from the list and 10 electorate seats. They are:

List MPs: Naisi Chen (38), Liz Craig (41), Ibrahim Omer (42), Anahila Kanongata'a-Suisuiki (44), Rachel Brooking (46), Helen White (48) and Angela Roberts (50).

Electorate MPs: Shanan Halbert (Northcote), Emily Henderson (Whangarei), Terisa Ngobi (Otaki), Glen Bennett (New Plymouth), Anna Lorck (Tukituki), Jamie Strange (Hamilton East), Ginny Andersen (Hutt South), Sarah Pallett (Ilam), Jo Luxton (Rangitata) and Rachel Boyack (Nelson).

Three MPs would lose their electorate seats, but retain their place in Parliament through the party list. They are: Vanushi Walters (Upper Harbour), Priyanca Radhakrishnan (Maungakeikei), and Willow-Jean Prime (Northland).

At number 37 of the party list, Tamati Coffey is the most at-risk list MP.

The electorate predictions assume the fall in party vote is reflected in the electorate vote with adjustment for local MP support, no change to the list rankings of the existing MPs, and a wastage party vote consistent with that at the last general election.

National was up 0.5% to 26.5%. ACT continued to rise, up 1.5% to 17.5%. The Maori Party was up 1% at 3% while the Green Party was unchanged at 10.5%. The poll was taken before National's leadership change.

Roy Morgan states, "Government Confidence Rating dropped by 8pts in November to 101.5 to be at its lowest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to office four years ago in October 2017. The drop in Government Confidence came after the Auckland lockdown was extended throughout November".

"Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s strength lies with the massive edge in support that the Labour Party receives from women. Nearly three-fifths of women (57.5%) support either Labour (49%) or the Greens (8.5%) compared to only 42% of men supporting either Labour (28.5%) or the Greens (13.5%) – a massive ‘gender gap’ of 20.5% points in favour of Ardern’s Labour Party among women."

They say, "A large majority of 56% of young women aged 18-49 say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 34% that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This latest poll continues the rapid decline in support for Labour. It's a clear signal from the electorate that their love affair with Jacinda Ardern and Labour is over.  Clearly, the groundswell of discontent against the government's reform agenda is being reflected in the polls. The Arden government is just a few percentage points away from a routing at the next general election.

Of further concern to Labour will be that approximately 80% of the support it has lost has gone to unlikely coalition partners.

If an election were to be held today, Labour would be in the position it was in 2017 when it relied on others to form a government. The difference being NZ First would not be in the mix as it has not reached the 5% threshold. Labour would rely on the Greens which leaves Labour tainted, especially by those in the rural sector. This will become more evident in 2022 when Labour/Greens introduce carbon reduction legislation.

The defining issue in the months ahead is whether National, under the leadership of Chris Luxon, can re-invent itself as an attractive alternative.  Attracting the women's vote will no doubt continue to occupy the minds of its strategists.

At some point the inevitability of job losses will resonate within the Labour caucus. Based on this poll, 17 will be out of a job after the next election. The question is whether these 17 are prepared to raise concerns about the speed of the Party's radical reform agenda and the influence of the agenda-driven Maori caucus in particular. They must surely be questioning whether the Labour Party is the Labour Party they joined up to, or whether it has become the  Maori Party.

View RoyMorgan Poll HERE >>>

Frank Newman, is a political commentator, investment analyst, and a former local body councillor.


Tinman said...

The most notable thing about this poll result has been the complete absence of comment or highlight about it from the bought-and-paid-for "media".

Janine said...

Whilst it is great to see the latest information in the polls favouring National and ACT bringing a likely change in government at the next election, I feel the last couple of years have uncovered some hitherto unknown facts about the direction our country, New Zealand, has been taking under all past governments.

We urgently need to unite as one people. Criminal behaviour needs to be called out for what it is...criminal behaviour. Law abiding citizens should be more greatly respected. All vulnerable people should be cared for whatever their skin tone.

The land, sea and water belongs to all. Do you hear us National and ACT?

I very much doubt whether either National or ACT will have the inclination to push back on the agendas being rushed through. Only time will tell.

Allan said...

Two years until the next election. That is a very long time in politics.
Only the last year in any governments term is remembered by the politically apathetic public, & that year is the year of the lolly scramble.
Luxon has already stated that his most admired politician is OBAMA, so don't count on that turkey to change direction.