Sunday, April 10, 2022

Frank Newman: Bad news continues for Labour in latest Roy Morgan poll.

According to the most recent Roy Morgan poll National and ACT could form the next government despite their combined vote falling 2.5% since January.

National is steady on 38% but ACT lost support for the third straight month, down 2.5% points to 9% and its lowest for nearly a year. Since Luxon took over the leadership of National support for Act NZ has dropped by 8.5% points while support for National is up 11.5% points.

On the left, Labour was unchanged at 32%, the Greens were down 0.5% points to 10.5% and the Maori Party was unchanged at 2%. The combined 44.5% is now 2.5% less than the 47% support for National/ACT.

The main movement since the last poll was the rise in support for minnow parties. This would suggest those dissatisfied with Labour are not finding a comfortable roost within the other political parties in Parliament. Some 8.5% of voters support parties that are unlikely to win a seat. That's up 5% on last month. Within that group, NZ First was the big mover, up 2% to 4%.

Ironically it is because of that significant wasted vote that National and ACT could form the next government, given they combined would attract 44.5% of the 91.5% of votes that count. That's enough to win 62 of the 120 seats in Parliament.

Based on these numbers Labour would lose 24 of its 65 seats in Parliament. National would gain 17, the Greens 4, ACT 2 and Maori Party 1.

Roy Morgan, state;

“There is however bad news for the Labour-Greens government with a majority of 51.5% of electors (up 4% points from February) saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction compared to only 39% (down 3.5% points) saying the country is ‘heading in the right direction. This leads to a record low Government Confidence Rating of only 87.5.

“For the first time, more women now say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ (47.5%) than ‘heading in the right direction (41.5%) – a Government Confidence Rating of only 94 amongst women. For men it is even worse, only just over a third, 35.5%, say the country is ‘heading in the right direction compared to a clear majority of 55.5% that say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 80.

“The decline in support for Labour really began following September when support for Labour (45.5%) was almost double support for National (23%).  Since the leadership change in November support for National has increased 11.5% points and support for Labour has dropped 4% points. National has actually gained more support from fellow right-leaning Act NZ (down 8.5% points) than Labour since the change."

View RoyMorgan Poll HERE >>>

Frank Newman, is a political commentator, investment analyst, and a former local body councillor.


DeeM said...

Glad as I am that it is now possible to get a National-ACT government, without the Maori Party thank heavens, I still don't understand the attraction of Chris Luxon as the catalyst for that.
Either people really hated Collins and anybody else would do or these swing voters are seeing something in Luxon I don't.
Maybe the fact he once ran AirNZ is enough for a large number of Kiwis.

The fact that ACT keep falling does seem to indicate that most Kiwis are not bothered much about the whole co-governance agenda.

Janine said...

I concur with Dee. I can't really understand the attraction to Luxon especially if people want change. I also can't understand the lack of interest in co- governance which, although it apparently works in countries like Singapore, would not work in New Zealand. I hope David Seymour is not put off by the falling poll numbers and keeps on track.

I am encouraged by the rising undecided vote of 8.5% which to me means something different. I see it as a path towards change with someone like Matt Kings Democracy NZ reaching at least 5% and thus, along with ACT, keeping National on the right path.

Lindsay Mitchell said...

Dee I expect they will be when it is too late.

Ross said...

I do not understand any attraction to Luxon as a leader, either. I think the changes in the polls are mainly due to how bad the Government is performing and the fact people are waking up to the PM's real agenda. They are waking up to the whole Covid issue being more about politics than health.

So if National had a more capable and "likeable" leader and some one who was prepared to take strong, alternative stands on issues, they would be much further ahead in the polls.
Like Janine, I'm encouraged by the increase in support for the minor parties.

I may have missed it, but I have not seen an "undecided" figure.

DeeM said...

Your dead right, Lindsay.
Overhearing conversations in shops and cafes I get the impression that many Kiwis are far too busy self-congratulating themselves for supposedly being the best in the world at combatting Covid.
Whilst preening and strutting to each other they've been blind-sided by this government and can't see the co-governance freight train heading towards them at speed.

Pride comes before a fall. Or in this case an almighty drop of Himalayan proportions.

Anonymous said...

I would just like to congratulate David Seymour for having the confidence and ability to say what needs saying and question those who seem intent on destroying our wonderful country. I for one will be voting for ACT in the next elections, as I feel maybe it is time for some new blood and our tried and true have failed terribly, so I live in hope that David and his team can succeed. I would be interested to see a poll conducted on how may Maori descendants actually want all this special treatment, as I feel sure a large majority would just want to be good old' Kiwi's like the rest of us. Like the old saying goes United we Stand - Divided we Fall.

CGee said...

I like DeeM's freight-train analogy. I intend writing to C.Luxon to inform him that there's no way I will be voting for his party unless he (a) acknowledges the freight-train, and (b) confronts it. He's been far too mealy-mouthed about co-governance to date. If more people would make the effort to tell him this in no uncertain terms, maybe he would get the message.

I still think National/ACT is a better bet than voting for a new right-wing party which might get 4.5% and no electorate seat, and just end up consigning all those get-rid-of-Labour votes as wasted (thus benefitting the Left).

Geoffrey said...

Dead right CeeBed.. Because ?u ton refuses to make a categoric statement that he would repeal all Labours co-governance legislation, I cannot give him my vote. I like what David Seymore is doing and admire his energy. New Nation are also worth more than a passing glance