According to the most recent Roy Morgan poll National and ACT could form the next government despite their combined vote falling 2.5% since January.
National is steady on 38% but ACT lost support for the third straight month, down 2.5% points to 9% and its lowest for nearly a year. Since Luxon took over the leadership of National support for Act NZ has dropped by 8.5% points while support for National is up 11.5% points.
On the left, Labour was unchanged at 32%, the Greens were down 0.5% points to 10.5% and the Maori Party was unchanged at 2%. The combined 44.5% is now 2.5% less than the 47% support for National/ACT.
The main movement since the last poll was the rise in support for minnow parties. This would suggest those dissatisfied with Labour are not finding a comfortable roost within the other political parties in Parliament. Some 8.5% of voters support parties that are unlikely to win a seat. That's up 5% on last month. Within that group, NZ First was the big mover, up 2% to 4%.
Ironically it is because of that significant wasted vote that National and ACT could form the next government, given they combined would attract 44.5% of the 91.5% of votes that count. That's enough to win 62 of the 120 seats in Parliament.
Based on these numbers Labour would lose 24 of its 65 seats in Parliament. National would gain 17, the Greens 4, ACT 2 and Maori Party 1.
Roy Morgan, state;
“There is however bad news for the Labour-Greens government with a majority of 51.5% of electors (up 4% points from February) saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction compared to only 39% (down 3.5% points) saying the country is ‘heading in the right direction. This leads to a record low Government Confidence Rating of only 87.5.
“For the first time, more women now say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ (47.5%) than ‘heading in the right direction (41.5%) – a Government Confidence Rating of only 94 amongst women. For men it is even worse, only just over a third, 35.5%, say the country is ‘heading in the right direction compared to a clear majority of 55.5% that say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 80.
“The decline in support for Labour really began following September when support for Labour (45.5%) was almost double support for National (23%). Since the leadership change in November support for National has increased 11.5% points and support for Labour has dropped 4% points. National has actually gained more support from fellow right-leaning Act NZ (down 8.5% points) than Labour since the change."
View RoyMorgan Poll HERE >>>
Frank Newman, is a political commentator, investment analyst, and a former local body councillor.