Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for May 2024 shows support for the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) has crashed in May, down 4.5% points to 48.5% with a narrow lead over the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition surging to 47% (up 4% points).
For the National-led Government support for National was down 3% points to 33.5% – the lowest support for National since last year’s New Zealand Election, support for ACT decreased 1.5% points to 9.5% while support for NZ First was unchanged at 5.5%.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour jumped 5.5% points to 30% – Labour’s highest support for nearly a year since June 2023, support for the Greens was up 1% point to 14% and support for the Maori Party was down 2.5% points to 3%.
A further 4.5% (up 0.5% points) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 3% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party and a further 1.5% (down 0.5% points) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Roy Morgan
It staggers me that a party like Labour, which was tossed from office, mostly because they were deadset useless and still have only useless MPs there, can be competitive with National.
This shows you that, pretty much as I predicted in the lead-up to the elections, National has a problem.
They have a leader who no one much likes, who slopes around playing pocket billiards or waving at people like a whoopsy.
We got rid of Ardern, and drove her from office, for the same sort of behaviour.
Now, don’t get me wrong, I’d rather have National than Labour leading the Government, but I get the distinct impression that Christopher Luxon is not enjoying his job, and it shows. National DOES have a problem, and it needs to sort it out fast.
The problem manifests itself when you look at the break down between men and women.
On an overall basis, men heavily favour the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government on 60%, almost double the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on only 33.5% – a gap of 26.5% points.
In contrast, women are heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 58.5% – well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 39% – a gap of 19.5% points.
Support for the governing coalition is strongest for older men. For men aged 50+ there are a massive 64% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First almost double the 33.5% supporting the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for the governing parties; National (44.5%) and ACT (14%) is stronger amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
For younger men aged 18-49 there is also strong support for the governing coalition with 56.5% supporting National/ ACT/ NZ First compared to 33.5% that support Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
Women aged 50+ are narrowly in favour of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 51% compared to the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 45.5% – a gap of 5.5% points.
Younger women aged 18-49 are the biggest supporters of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 65.5% almost double the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition on 33.5%.
Support for both the Labour Party (39%) and Greens (22.5%) is strongest amongst this age and gender group. More than half of the 15 Greens MPs elected in October 2023 were drawn from this gender and age group of women aged under 50.
Roy Morgan
Honestly, I despair at the state of female voters. They are letting their men-folk down.
National will of course arrogantly dismiss this poll, but it is the second in a row showing a decline. There is a problem, best to act now while it remains a small problem.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.
8 comments:
Doesn't surprise me given the relentless criticism of the government by the media. Almost all the female Labour-Green supporters I've spoken to can't see past that. They vote on the basis of emotion and personality. They complain about the cost of living crisis but don't think what caused it.
Maybe women watch programmes like Breakfast far more than men.
Or many of them still want all the BS wellbeing, kind-and-caring crap embodied by Ardern and Labour. Even though it ruined the country and fostered racism.
Come on ladies - get with the play!
What is clear is that our government needs to address state media bias URGENTLY. Watching from the sidelines and hoping that things will come right is never going to work.
I add to DeeM comments that the media are aligned with an extreme left wing ideology. We know what the future Labour/Green/TPM Government is going to do with the governance of the country.
To DeeM -
You forgot to add to your comment that Women are the highest user of a cell phone to source Social media and the insistent "data (highlighted by One Jacinda Ardern as being - well you know the statement) - "that is believed without recourse [and re-tweeted add nauseum] without looking at other reliable sources, for confirmation of data being read".
Over use of the cell phone & social media, has been acknowledged , as being seen in the junior female grades, and has been noted is the 'root cause' of most on-line bullying.
If anyone looks at TVNZ Breakfast, which is tantamount to American women watching Jo Bayar & Whoopi Goldberg on ABC from LAX 'and believes the tripe' they espouse, is beyond belief. Also TVNZ Breakfast now has 'the biggest anti Trump protagonist' - that allows 'the lies to be perpetrated (and via the 6.00 pm News), without actual proof being given.
The messaging is the problem.
As commented on the viewership of MSM nicey numbness and, frankly, drivel akin to woman’s mags gossip rags is a dumbing down & serves to keep the serfs at bay.
Sheeple need to wake up to the fact that this country will sleep into a cesspit of disorder. We need the strong speech and action of NZFirst
Why should we trust Roy Morgan, or any other pollsters for that matter ?
The data they collect is crunched by computer software, so whose to say they dont bump the algorhythm to favour one side or another to suit an agenda. It's not like the CIA haven't used exactly these tactics to interfere in foreign elections for years.
In my opinion & that of my friends, we dont trust any of them or the institutions they represent any more, only watch the MSM news to see what their "not" talking about (eg, WHO Pandemic Treaty) & wouldn't comply with any of their stupidity anyway, so these polls only show who is the least despised out of the entire pit of vipers & have no real value, especially considering we have only just finished the last election cycle. Politicians & bureaucrats are the most worthless people on the planet. They do not create or produce anything & their sole purpose is to coerce as much money as possible from you & pass laws & regulations to legitimise the theft. The world would not stop turning if govts collapsed overnight. There would still be trade & commerce, industries would not collapse, there would still be Rule of Law & the sky would not fall. In fact the entire planet & everything on it would be better off if we sacked them all immediately, then put them to work picking up litter, removing graffiti, cleaning public toilets, emptying trash cans & filling in pot holes. At least then they would have a purpose...
Messaging is indeed the problem! The opposition is using every trick in the book to focus attention on itself. And as they say, there is no bad publicity!
Most older males draw on a lengthy experience of life to form their opinions. As do some older women. The political propaganda is much less effective with these demographics. Sad about the young ones, who are fated to live their disastrous choices.
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