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Saturday, May 4, 2024

David Farrar: Some three strikes data


1st strikers
  • 55% of 1st strikers were sentenced to less than 2 years imprisonment (or no imprisonment)
  • 20% of 1st strikers were sentenced to 2 – 3 years imprisonment
  • 25% of 1st strikers were sentenced to more than 3 years imprisonment

2nd strikers
  • 31% of 2nd strikers were sentenced to less than 2 years imprisonment (or no imprisonment)
  • 22% of 2nd strikers were sentenced to 2 – 3 years imprisonment
  • 47% of 2nd strikers were sentenced to more than 3 years imprisonment
This data comes from someone who has OIAd this data.

The Government’s proposed new law will see 55% of violent or sexual offenders not get a first strike and 31% of what would have been second strikers not get a second strike.

Arguably it could even see 75% of first strikers and 53% of second strikers avoid strikes as Judges who give a sentence of just over two years would probably reduce it to avoid having to give a strike.

The proposed new law is not adequate. We need to demand a stronger law, not a symbolic law.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.

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