Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time - 24 October 2026

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Snitching pays, Labour candidate resigns, Chippy gets tearful

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 17 October 2026

Election 2026: Polls, plans, and unexpected begrudging support

The latest polling hasn’t made life any better for either of the two Chrises. An Anacta poll (conducted by Labour’s former pollster Talbot Mills for corporate clients) has Labour on 29%, National on 28%, the Greens on 15%, New Zealand First on 10%, ACT on 9%, and Opportunity on 5.4%. Te Pāti Māori is languishing at 1.9%, but that is part of the strategy. The poll was conducted before the Mongrel Mob visit became controversial, however. The 1News Verian poll earlier in the week also placed Opportunity in the position of potential kingmaker. There continues to be little enthusiasm for either of the Chrises with both on 22% as preferred prime minister in the Anacta polling.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 10 October 2026

Election 2026: Three polls, two leaders, and absolutely no clarity

‘Tis the season of polls and 3 were released this week. The RNZ-Reid Research poll had Labour on 30.8%, National on 25.9%, the Greens on 14.8%, New Zealand First on 10.6%, ACT on 9%, and Opportunity on 5.5%. The 1News-Verian poll told a slightly different story, with National ahead of Labour at 29% to 28%, the Greens on 16%, New Zealand First on 10%, ACT on 9%, and Opportunity on 7%. Notably both put Opportunity in the position of potentially deciding the next government.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 3 October 2026

This week New Zealand lost a great former Parliamentarian and Speaker, the Right Honourable Adrian Rurawhe. He died at just 65 and most people had no idea how ill he was. Chris Hipkins said Adrian had not even told the Labour caucus he was sick because he knew they were busy with the election and “didn’t want to get in the way”, which is entirely consistent with everything people have said about him since his death.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 26 September 2026

Just who is engaging in dirty politics?

After several days of breathless speculation and a launch that excited as many as 200 New Zealanders and the media, Nicky Hager finally released Dirty Work: The Taxpayers’ Union and New Zealand’s Hard Right. Like a dead cat whacked on the dining table the day before Parliament rose for the end of term, it was intended to impact the election.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 19 September 2026

Parliament’s final weeks descend into farce

My goodness gracious. This term of Parliament has been one marred by poor behaviour in the House unfortunately, and in this second to last week the people we elected to represent us have outdone themselves.

On Tuesday, Labour’s Ginny Andersen and ACT leader David Seymour were both booted out by Speaker Gerry Brownlee. Andersen went first and was somewhat hard done by given she was just one heckler among many who were raucously interjecting (after having been warned to pipe down) during an answer from Revenue Minister Simon Watts. Her seat in the front row in the Speaker’s line of sight was probably to blame for her being the scapegoat of her party.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 12 September 2026

Election 2026: Nobody told Willie Jackson there’d be a test

We are properly in the campaign now. Someone should tell Chris Hipkins who appears to have all the energy of a bloke who is only there because he has been promised there will be sausage rolls afterwards. Ready or not we have reached the point where candidates (or senior MPs) are misspeaking, protesters are turning public meetings into circuses, and everyone is starting to look more and more unhinged.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time - 5 September 2026

Election 2026: Promises, petrol, and public servants

There was a lot of policy and promises this week. Labour kicked things off by saying they will freeze planned fuel tax increases and National promptly decided it also rather liked the idea of not putting petrol tax up immediately too, but stopped short of a complete freeze. The 12 cent increase due next January is now gone. Instead, the Government intends to begin raising the tax by 5 cents in January 2028, followed by another 3x 5 cent increases every 6 months. This will reduce expected transport fund revenue by $1.476 billion over the forecast period. About $450 million can be found in an existing fuel crisis contingency fund, but that still leaves a bit over $1 billion to find and David Seymour and Chris Bishop have both acknowledged that unless equivalent spending is cut elsewhere, the money will be borrowed. Labour has an even bigger unanswered question as freezing the increases for the whole next term will cost around $4.6 billion.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 29 August 2026

Election 2026: The Great New Zealand Tax-Off

Christopher Luxon has promised “no new taxes” if National is returned to government. This makes a hell of a lot of sense given the opposition parties appear to be trying to outdo each other with the amount of new taxes they are announcing. Except Labour who swear they will not adopt these “bottom lines” of their coalition partners.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 22 August 2026

Election 2026: Everybody has discovered the MMP cheat codes

Te Pāti Māori has formally announced that it wants the electorate vote in the Māori seats, but supporters can give their party vote to Labour or the Greens. If Te Pāti Māori wins more electorate seats than its tiny party vote would entitle it to, those electorate MPs become overhang seats. Parliament gets bigger and, depending on the final numbers, the left bloc potentially gets a small mathematical advantage.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 8 August 2026

Election 2026: polls in which nobody is winning

Neither Luxon nor Hipkins had a good week. The polls aren’t looking good for either and we are less than 100 days from the election. One Chris has taken to hating on MMP while the other is blaming a “rogue poll”.

The Taxpayers’ Union–Curia poll released yesterday put Labour on a grim 27.8%, down 3.7 points in a month and only fractionally higher than what it got on election night 2023. National is back in front on 31%, NZ First is on 9.1, ACT 7.3, and the Greens 10.1. Te Pāti Māori has fallen all the way to 1.5%. On these numbers, the current coalition would scrape back into office with 61 seats.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 25 July 2026

If this is the campaign we’re going to have, it’s going to be a very long few months

We’re barely into the election campaign and I’m already exhausted. New Zealand is facing enormous questions about economic growth, energy security, infrastructure, health, the Treaty, the cost of living, and our place in an unstable world. Parties are releasing substantive policy that deserves serious scrutiny. However, this week far too much of the political conversation has revolved around drinking games, innuendo, and outrage cycles that last 24 hours before being replaced by the next one.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 4 July 2026

Did you know…

That Labour was at 25.5% in Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for June 2026?

Did you read about it? See it in the news? Was Chris Hipkins chased through an airport by reporters asking if he would resign? Were Labour MPs asked if they still support him?

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 27 June 2026

Greens co-leader attempted actual economic treachery

A story that should have received far more attention this week was Chloe Swarbrick’s extraordinary decision to take her domestic political grievances offshore. The Green Party co-leader wrote (along with Belgian Green MEP Saskia Bricmont) to the European Commission, suggesting New Zealand’s methane target changes may breach our trade deal with the EU and calling for an independent investigation. In other words, she invited foreign trade officials to scrutinise New Zealand’s democratically chosen domestic policy settings because she disagrees with them in the hopes they would punish us economically.

Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time: 20 June 2026

Labour’s plan for “FREE” everything, paid for by one extra tax

Labour has had a busy time announcing policies (finally). Last week was the public transport fare cap of $20 a week in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, and $10 elsewhere. Labour costed it at $65 million a year, but the numbers immediately began to wobble. Economists Sam Warburton and Brad Olsen put the more realistic figure somewhere between $91-112 million.