Friday, August 6, 2021

Ross Meurant: ACT by Default: National is a Dead Duck

Invariably Oppositions do not win elections: Governments lose. Come 2023 however, in my opinion, the National Opposition is not going to win!  In fact, they will fall even further than they fell at the 2020 General Election.

The 2020 election produced a first ever result in nine general elections under the MMP system whereby one political party won sufficient voter support to rule in its own right.  How did this happen?

Many factors contributed including the lustre and luck of an emerging political star, Jacinda Ardern.  But the massive swing of former hard core Tory support away from National, was in my assessment, the critical factor.

The unprecedented swings of voter support were away from National rather than to Labour.

Take my former hard core Tory electorate seat of Hobson in Northland (where I once held a 4,000 majority) and that of the late Honourable Venn Young’s Waitotara electorate in the Taranaki region (where he consistently had very high majorities).  These and many other “safe” National seats, tumbled. Unbelievable, to many of the Blue Brigade.

For three consecutive terms (1987, 1990,1993) I was elected as the Member of Parliament in the electorate seat of Hobson as the National Party candidate.   Yet, in 2020 I joined the exodus of National support and voted Labour. (And this in-spite of $2,000 donations to National.)

My vote for Labour was not because I was enamoured with Jacinda.  My vote was against National.  And I suggest that this was the case with the majority of the tsunami of former Tories who went Left.

In my view, National’s election campaign was a disaster. It promised nothing - which included the line-up of MPs National presented to the country.  In my view, nothing has changed as the 2023 general elections looms.

Blogger Martyn Bradbury shows the first signs of fear and loathing at the prospect of Labour losing the next round. The most recent poll showing an 18% loss of support in just one month, seemed to rattle the cage of hard-core Labourites.  Jacinda’s star has waned. 

In an earlier blog, Martyn blustered about Judith Collins’ “race baiting Aotearoa referendum”.

Martyn seems to hold the view that Judith Collins’ audacity in postulating a referendum on a name change for New Zealand, will lose her votes?  I tend to agree. But for different reasons.

In my view, Judith Collins will lose votes because she lacks the fortitude to stand against the woke disease which threatens to have New Zealand re-named.  She lacks the leadership qualities to come forward and state unequivocally:

“Under my leadership, National will not re-name New Zealand.”

After all, that’s what 83% of the country want!

That’s it!  That will win National the Treasury benches.

In my view, Judith Collins fails miserably as a so-called leader of a political party which has as its core philosophy, preservation of the pillars of what has made our county what it is today.  Conservatism is National’s raison d'ĂȘtre.

Some might argue that Jacinda Ardern’s rise to power was per chance?  A combination of a woeful National Opposition, the unacceptability (and rightly so) of Mr Little as leader and a matter of being in the right place at the right time – after which the Christchurch massacres, the White Island tragedy and COVID, provided well timed momentum.

David Seymour’s elevation in the polls and potentially to Prime Minister, also seems to be the result of, chance?

Nearly every Tory I speak with, is now going to vote ACT.

Oh!  I almost forgot.  I said, “nearly every”!

Whereas I didn’t give the Rt Hon Winston a snowballs chance in Hell, Judith’s neglect of the conservative’s ethos of National, opens the door to Winnie being a winner – once again.

Ross Meurant, graduate in politics both at university and as a Member of Parliament; formerly police inspector in charge of Auckland spies; currently Honorary Consul for an African state’ Trustee and CEO of Russian owned commercial assets in New Zealand and has international business interests.


DeeM said...

I tend to agree Ross.
National has been a huge disappointment in opposition, particularly with such an incompetent government to take political advantage of.
Collins seems to be asleep at the wheel most of the time, waking up occasionally to challenge the PM. When she does there is a noticeable lack of support from many of her colleagues who seem to be jostling for the next leadership challenge.
Personal gain seems the number one driving force, which makes for a very weak and fractured party. Whoever succeeds as the next leader may well be inheriting a party that the public have little interest in.

Anonymous said...

In order for National to regain its former position, Collins has to whip the 'wets' into line and force the resignation of those that won't back her. Already several of the more flaccid members have departed.
There are parallels to this, both in the past and in the present.

Thatcher did this during her early years as PM, instigating the removal of various 'wet' opponents who didn't support her successful restructuring of the British economy.

Although you won't know it by reading our myopic media, the same process is happening in the USA now. While I doubt that Trump will put himself up for reelection because of his age, he is very active in the Republican party, organizing the removal of 'RINO' candidates by using his massive popular powerbase to support fresh candidates coming to the fore. It is likely that Republicans will win back the Senate in the midterm elections and if they do it will be a different looking party - hopefully with a lot more spine.

So I suspect (hope) Collins is beavering away in the background, having some serious discussions about the philosophical underpinnings of the party and before the election will have a consistent message to present to the voters.

Tinman said...

Giving credence to anyone stupid enough to have voted Labour in last year's disgrace is hard but I can't help agree that Collins isn't the answer to National's problems.

Trouble is I see no worthwhile alternative within National's ranks.

ACT is the only alternative.

Phil said...

Someone said to me that Judith Collins has her strengths but she is not present in the modern domain selling her ideas to the under 40s. Older New Zealanders watch TV news channels completely controlled by Labour. Even on right leaning websites like this she isn't really present. We have an ideologically extreme Government that is also incompetent and we can't afford to have voters voting against National in the next election when we have a Government like this one at the helm.

Unknown said...

National haven’t got a chance until Collins puts on her bitch face, junkyard dog persona and attacks the Marxist left idiots who now have control of the asylum

maic said...

I also am dismayed and disheartened by National's failure as an Opposition.As a retired teacher I am particularly dismayed by its inability or lack of motivation to oppose and cancel leftist ideology in schools when it did hold power. For decades our school children have suffered and standards have fallen.
By contrast ACT has a clear vision and you know where it stands even if you do not agree with all its policies.
I say that it is a matter of supreme urgency that the non left parties work together to reform or abolish the Education Ministry and to enact school choice for parents who want it. As I see it the Education Ministry has become the Ministry of Educational Obstruction whose main objective is to push the latest leftist or Marxist ideology.
Bring back more local control of educational administration with local citizens and voters electing regional Boards.
We need educational reform which makes schools and administrators directly accountable to parents and local citizens.
ACT might do it - I don't know about the others!!

Rosemary said...

I'd be very ashamed to admit I voted for the current bunch of "not fit for purpose" people that we have in the halls of power at the moment, especially if I had been a National MP. Did you not perceive while they were in power before how incompetent and lacking in wisdom they were? Why on earth vote such people back into power to wreak even more havoc in our country. Even I who am not at all alert to what's going on politically could see that Labour and the Greens were even then were deliberately bringing our country to its knees.

Lesley Stephenson said...

Judith has lost her 'mojo'.Seymour is now the only alternative for me.He at least says something. Judith talks but says nothing.

Anonymous said...

I haven’t been to keen on JC since the Oravido debacle. Can’t help think that she’s a tad sympathetic towards the CCP like comrade Jacinda, hence the reason we haven’t had any aggressive opposition. There seems to be more to this lack lustre opposition that leaves me feeling JCs batting for the same side, I mean, how many opportunities do you need to criticise incompetence when Labour hands it to you on a platter on a weekly basis. We can see it, even traditional lefties are seeing it and not feeling to comfortable about it. I think Sir David Carter pretty much summed it up at the Nat conference meeting last weekend by quitting. Bring on Seymour, at least he’s got a pair and doesn’t mind biting at the opposition’s ankles