Wednesday, August 4, 2021

Frank Newman: Nine Labour MPs out based on current polling

The most recent Newshub poll results show the Government’s popularity is taking a substantial hit.

Labour was down 9.7 points to 43. That's well down on Labour's election night polling of 50%, which after allowing for wasted vote delivered Labour 65 seats. The results echo those of the Roy Morgan poll two days earlier which had Labour at just under 40%.

Based on the Newshub polling, Labour would lose nine MPs; four from the list and five from electorate seats. 

They are:

List MPs: Anahila Kanongata'a-Suisuiki (44), Rachel Brooking (46), Helen White (48), and Angela Roberts (50).

Electorate MPs: Shanan Halbert (Northcote), Emily Henderson (Whangarei), Terisa Ngobi (Otaki), Glen Bennett (New Plymouth), and Anna Lorck (Tukituki).

Willow-Jean Prime is likely to lose the Northland electorate which she won by just 163 votes but would retain a seat in Parliament via the party list (36).

[The predictions assume the fall in party vote is reflected in the electorate vote, no change to the list rankings of the existing MPs, and a wastage party vote consistent with that at the last general election.]

Unfortunately for National, Labour's loss was not their gain. It rose 1.7 points to 28.7. ACT gained 4.2 points at 11.1 which reflects the view that ACT is doing a better job in opposition than National.

The Greens gained 1.4 points to 8.5 per cent and NZ First gained 1.5 points to 3.4.

The right will take heart that most of the votes being lost by Labour are going their way. What will worry Labour is the fact that it's their radical agenda that has created the groundswell of discontent. Few would attribute it to a particularly effective political opposition.

No doubt Labour's MPs sitting in marginal electorates or in the lower echelons of the party list will be wondering if Labour has gone too hard, too fast. They must be thinking that it is they who will pay the price.

Frank Newman, a political commentator and investment analyst, is a former local body councillor.


Anonymous said...

All that is fairly obvious.

The bigger question is how Ardern will react:

> Will she backtrack?
> Or will she double down and try and force legislation through?

Anonymous said...

The socialist and Maori extremists within Labour will not back down. The Maori caucus knows this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to rush through privileges that will be very hard to reverse; more so given they have incited a resistance movement within Maori.

The comrade socialists are so arrogant that they believe they are doing the right thing by imposing their perverted view of the world onto others.

The fracture within Labour will be from the moderates and tail-enders on the list more concerned about their own political longevity than they are a cause. Those rumblings will be stirring already but will not become evident until election year. They will just wait and see for the moment.

Labour's greatest weakness is its greatest strength - Ardern. If she no longer feels loved she may well pack it in and move onto the UN where she is still adored with movie-star status.