Thursday, September 23, 2021

Heather du Plessis-Allan: Shaun Hendy's model is not plausible


I don’t even want to start guessing why the PM released that doomsday model this afternoon.  

But whatever her motivations, I am not in the slightest convinced by the numbers.   

According to the model – designed by Shaun Hendy – even if we get 80% of us vaccinated, we will still see 7000 deaths a year from covid.   

That’s 135 a week.   

That will scare the living day lights out of some people.


But it’s not in the slightest plausible.   

Do you know how you know that?   

Look at what’s happening in real life.   

You don’t need a model… you can just look at Singapore.    

Same population size as NZ, vaccination rate over that 80% mark now, not seeing 7000 deaths a year.   

They’ve had 16 in the last month.   

According to Hendy's model they should’ve recorded 540 in the last month alone.   

I could run you through any number of countries with high vax rates that are not recording anything like the level of deaths that Hendy is predicting.   

in fact, even if you wanted to ignore real life and stick to comparisons between models, take a look at what the models across the Tasman are predicting and you’ll find Hendy an alarmist. 

One is predicting 26 deaths a year across Australia.  

Even the worst-case scenarios I can find come nowhere near the predictions Hendy's making.   

As I say I don’t know the motivation for putting this extremely questionable number out there.  

If it was to scare people into embracing this lockdown or embracing closed borders, I’m disappointed.   

Right now, we need hope, not fear. 

And if fear was the motivation, I hope to God it doesn’t work. 

Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show.


DeeM said...

This is classic woke government behaviour. Everything revolves around models. Climate models, Covid models...they've got a model for everything. Unfortunately, if you take the trouble to test the models against REAL DATA they never agree and always swing towards predictions of calamity and disaster.
Models are great though. You can get any result you want from them as long as you fix the model inputs or cherry pick the data. Most people are programmed to think that if a computer was used to work something out it must be better... right? WRONG!
Computer models often produce results much worse than reality because they are designed by people who don't understand the subject they are modelling or have an agenda and already know the result they want.
Either way, it doesn't really matter to the politicians. All they want are models which will produce a set of results in agreement with their policy agenda. Accuracy and reliability don't come into it.
Our academic institutions don't tolerate dissent these days so models are unchallenged, regardless how unrealistic the results they produce. The media don't ask any questions or report alternative viewpoints...they're paid not to. So the public think all the models are trustworthy.
Oh yes! Our government and our MSM love models. Never-ending predictions of disaster with which to keep the population constantly worried and fearful, and easily manipulated. Predictions that NEVER EVER COME TRUE.

Alexandra Corbett Dekanova said...

I would say that the causee of publication of this model is quite clear. Our PM and government want to maintain the gloriola of being our saviours. If the real life is as gloomy as the model, it is our fault, we were warned and they can go on with lockdowns, if it is better, they are saviours. It all is to cover the sad reality that they did nothing to prepare this country for any outbreaks, no beds, no ICU, no doctors, no nurses, no medicines,no prevention ,no reliable MIQ etc.
Alexandra Corbett Dekanova

Anonymous said...

It is interesting that our major daily newspaper has each day, pages after page on Covid, and very little else. This must make our present political masters truly happy, as together with the daily 1p.m propaganda presentation, keeps the country from observing what they are doing in the background. Our TV interviewers ask inane questions and accept "off the cuff" replies. They are obviously too scared or are imitated from asking questions which might upset the interviewee. It is also extremely easy to see at this time which political reporters are Cindy's pets, and who never fully challenge her on any topic. They seem totally lost in the glorious sheen of those pearly whites. Where o where is Paul Holmes when we need him?

Ian P said...

Aside from one death of an elderly person with other complications, we have had zero deaths from the Delta variant. Delta seems to be a markedly different virus compared with Covid A. It's apparently more virulent, but I'd suggest even that is debatable based on experience here. 'Case zero' justifying the latest lockdown, spent time in Coromandel Town, at times in relatively crowded venues. Around 1000 people tested locally, zero positive tests. We are constantly reminded of what is happening in NSW and Victoria. Take a look at the covid statistics of the other States. Queensland, similar population to NZ - 7 deaths to date. Maybe we can learn something here.

Doug Longmire said...

The Hendy model is clearly a gross exaggeration of the reality.
Remember back when Covid arrived last year he produced a computer model that predicted NZ could have death toll of up to 81,000 from Covid.
So far we have 26.

Looks like he is using a similar type of "computer model" to the ones used by the IPCC in their climate apocalypse dire predictions. (None of which have actually occurred yet, which us really a bit embarrassing for the IPCC)