Ian Bradford: A mini ice age may have already begun - are you prepared?

Milankovich cycles

Milankovich cycles describe the collective effects of changes in the Earth’s movements on its climate over thousands of years. In the eyes of Milutin Milankovich there has been a noticeable trend in climate, temperature and seasons due to this cycle. We can accredit these long term climate changes to three variations in geometry between the Earth and the sun.  

Milankovich was a Serbian geophysicist and astronomer who in the 1920’s hypothesized that variations in the Earth’s eccentricity, axial tilt, and precession combined to result in cyclical variations in the intra-annual and altitudinal distribution of solar radiation at the Earth’s surface, and that this strongly influenced the Earth’s climatic patterns. 

Orbital eccentricity       

The Earth revolves around the sun in an approximately circular orbit. However, roughly every 100,000 years this orbit becomes more eccentric, i.e. the orbit becomes more like an ellipse, (egg shaped). So the Earth goes from a circular orbit to a more elliptical one. This is due to the gravitational pull of neighbouring planets-particularly the larger ones.  Because of its orbital eccentricity, the distance of the Earth from the sun varies. It can be a longer distance from the sun causing it to cool, or a shorter distance causing it to warm more.   

Axial tilt – Obliquity

This is the angle of the Earth’s tilt with respect to the orbital plane. This angle varies between 22.1 deg and 24.5 deg over a cycle of some 41,000 years.  The current tilt is about 23.44 deg roughly halfway between its extreme values. The tilt last reached its maximum in 8700 BC and is now in its decreasing phase of its cycle. Increased tilt provides more solar radiation in each hemisphere’s summer and less in winter. The current trend of decreasing tilt by itself will promote warmer winters and colder summers as well as an overall cooling trend. 

Axial precession

Axial precession is the trend in the direction of the Earth’s axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars. It takes about 25,000 years to complete one cycle. It is mostly the gravitational pull of the sun and moon that cause precession. This tilt will determine how much more or less each hemisphere will receive of the sun’s radiation. For example in about 10,000 years the North pole will be tilted towards the sun when the Earth is at perihelion - that’s its closest position to the sun. Axial tilt and orbital eccentricity will both contribute to the maximum increase in solar radiation during the northern hemisphere summer. 

 

Research in more recent times has shown that ice age cycles of the Quaternary glaciations over the last million years have been at a period of 100,000 years which matches Milankovich’s  eccentricity cycle. Jung-Eun of Brown University proposes that precession changes the amount of energy that the Earth absorbs, because the southern hemisphere’s greater ability to grow sea ice reflects more energy away from Earth. From 1 to 3 million years ago climate cycles matched the 41,000 year cycle of obliquity. After one million years ago the Mid- Pleistocene Transition occurred with a switch to the 100,000 year cycle matching eccentricity. 

It is clear that orbital variations are predictable. Any model that relates orbital variations to climate can be run forward to predict future climate. 

It is also clear that these changes in the Earth orbit, tilt, and precession must have a serious effect on the Earth’s climate.

Milankovich cycles give us the long term variation in climate.  

What about the sun, and the movement of the sun, and what is going on inside the sun

The sun is the source of energy for the Earth and all the planets. Most people think the sun sits at one spot and the planets orbit it. However, the sun also moves. It’s to do with centre of mass (centre of gravity), and the gravitational forces that exist between the planets and the sun. If two masses are spheres ( as the planets are nearly), then the law of gravitation says if we have just two planets that there is a force of attraction between them that depends on their masses and on the square of the distance of separation. So the bigger the masses and the closer they are the bigger the force of attraction. 

I was going to include the physics of the movement of the planets and the sun, which is quite straightforward, but I realise many reading this will not have any physics, so have kept it simple. The four large planets Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune, have the biggest influence on the Sun. As the planets move around in their orbits, the Sun under their influence moves in a series of spiral type paths. The net result is that the Sun has been slowly moving closer to the Earth. This has happened over a long history. As the Sun moves closer to Earth it raises the temperature here. This solar cycle lasts for 2100-2300 years and is known as Hallstatts cycle of solar radiation. The current cycle will come to an end about 2600. Professor Zharkova predicts a temperature rise of about 3.5 Deg C by the year 2600. She states that Carbon Dioxide plays no part. She states that only uneducated people can come up with the idea that CO₂ should be removed from the air. Humans are merely bystanders and we cannot change the Sun nor the orbits of the planets. 

The path of the sun from 1944 to 2020. The black dots give the position of the sun.

This movement of the sun clearly explains why the northern hemisphere is having hot summers and very cold winters with record low temperatures. (Though we never hear about the cold temperatures in the media- only the high summer ones.)  

The Sun-Earth distance changes, in spite of the fact that the IPCC have said the Sun-Earth distance is constant. Clearly the IPCC do not want the sun to play any part in global warming. 

What about inside the Sun?  The Sun has a magnetic field with north and south poles which switch over every 11 years and consequently so does solar activity and the amount of radiation. Solar activity is usually classified by the numbers of sunspots, appearing on the Sun’s surface generated by the solar dynamo mechanism acting in the Sun’s interior. The periodic appearance of sunspots is related to the solar background magnetic field and can be used as a measure of solar activity. In other words, the more sunspots the greater the Sun’s activity.  Sunspots appear dark because they are cooler than the rest of the Sun. They are still at a temperature of about 4200 Deg C.   

The changeover of the magnetic poles takes 11 years. A changeover is a cycle.    These cycles are numbered. The numbering began in 1755. We are currently in cycle 25 which began in 2020.  

The following gives the sunspot numbers from 1980 to 2040. 2030 to 2040 have been calculated. The number of sunspots has been falling off since 1980.  

Two magnetic waves resulting from two dynamos in the interior of the Sun interfere forming maxima and minima of solar cycles. There is a minima coming up in Cycle 26 with the magnetic field nearly zero. The discovery of the double dynamo action in the Sun brought us a timely warning about the upcoming Grand Solar Minimum. 

Mathematical derivations show there are Grand Solar Cycles every 350-400 years caused by the interference of the two magnetic waves. These grand cycles are separated by the Grand Solar Minima, or periods of very low solar activity. The previous Grand Solar Minimum was the Maunder Minimum 1645-1710, and the one before that the Wolf minimum1270-1350. In the next 500 years there will be two modern grand solar minima the first from 2020 to 2053 and the second in the 24^th century 2370-2415. 

So the first modern grand solar minimum has already started. 

In 2020 the sun saw 115 spotless days, (or 78%).

The movement of the sun and the 11 year solar cycles give us the reasons for climate change over shorter intervals. Some of these changes are very quick, like the Younger Dryas.   

What are the consequences? 

From 1645 to 1710 the temperature across much of the Northern Hemisphere of the Earth plunged when the Sun entered a quiet phase now called the Maunder Minimum. The total solar irradiance was reduced by 0.22%. That led to a decrease in the measured temperature in the Northern Hemisphere by 1-1.5 Deg C. This seemingly small decrease in the average temperature led to frozen rivers, cold long winters and cold summers.  The surface temperature was reduced all over the globe, especially in the countries of the Northern Hemisphere. Europe and North America went into a deep freeze: Alpine glaciers extended over valley farmland, sea ice crept south from the Arctic, and the Thames froze regularly during these years as well as the famous canals of the Netherlands. 

There was another factor too. The reduction in the solar magnetic field led to an increase in cosmic rays. Cosmic rays are charged particles emitted from such things as exploding stars. These cosmic rays seeded clouds in the upper atmosphere which further added to lower temperatures.  It is expected the temperature will lower by about 1deg C in this mini ice age. From about 2053 in cycle 28 temperatures will return to normal, and the temperature will continue to rise as the sun gets even closer to the Earth.

There are going to be major problems. Solar panels in many places will be covered in snow much of the time. The same snow and ice will make wind turbine blades out of balance and they will disintegrate. Wind turbines will not be able to be operated. There will not be enough electricity in many places and many (probably millions), will die of cold. Then there is the food question. In many areas, food will no longer be able to be grown. Millions will not only die of cold but of starvation also. Animals may not be able to be fed because the crops to feed them may not be able to be grown.

Solar panels- not much use if they are under snow.

Instead of investing in wind farms and solar farms, all investment should be in nuclear power. Modern nuclear power stations are very safe. Wind and solar are going nowhere. Wouldn’t it be a good idea to err on the safe side and build nuclear power stations just in case?  That would at least provide energy right around the clock and prevent large numbers of people dying from cold.  

The predictability of another mini ice age is very credible because the solar cycles have been maintained for a long period of time and this enables us to see the grand solar cycles formed by the interference of the two internal magnetic waves. These grand cycles are always separated by grand solar minimum of the Maunder type. We should know by 2030 if this cold spell is happening. 

Footnote: Professor Zharkova who has researched this, has experienced attempts at silencing her, plus persecution. The editor of Nature Scientific refused to publish one of her scientific articles under pressure from the proponents of anthropogenic global warming. This retraction is the case she says for anyone who questions man made global warming and explains climate change in any other way.  These people she refers to as the CO₂ mafia! She did eventually get her article published. 

To me this is a good sign. It shows that she is considered a threat to the anthropogenic global warming fraud which groups like the IPCC want to keep rolling. To them, the sun plays no part. It’s that 4% of human produced CO₂ that causes climate change. 

Ian Bradford, a science graduate, is a former teacher, lawyer, farmer and keen sportsman, who is writing a book about the fraud of anthropogenic climate change.