If you aren’t worried about America’s nuclear deterrence, you should be. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) just released its latest assessment of the nuclear capabilities of America’s most dangerous enemies: Nuclear Challenges: The Growing Capabilities of Strategic Competitors and Regional Rivals. Replace the word “challenges” with “threats,” and you get a better picture of the dire situation. China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran continue to grow larger on America’s nuclear threat windscreen.
Nuclear Challenges
Over the past four years, America’s nuclear posture has been deemed inadequate. In this presidential election, leadership choices becomes even more significant. The DIA report executive summary opens with a sobering analysis:
Over the past four years, America’s nuclear posture has been deemed inadequate. In this presidential election, leadership choices becomes even more significant. The DIA report executive summary opens with a sobering analysis:
“Russia, China, and North Korea are modernizing their legacy stockpiles by incorporating advanced technologies to penetrate or avoid missile defense systems. Countries are also developing nuclear weapons with smaller yields, improved precision, and increased range for military of coercive use … Beijing has far surpassed earlier growth estimates assessed in 2018 and is currently exceeding 500 deliverable nuclear warheads in its stockpile.”
The report estimates that China will reach 1,000 warheads by the year 2030. Perhaps more troubling from a deterrence perspective is that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) emphasizes lower yield, more tactical atomic weapons. Moving away from high yield in the mega-ton category gives the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) more flexibility and makes the use of nuclear weapons more suitable for a “proportional” response, as the report suggests. However, the PLA’s more “appealing” choice of tactical nuclear weapons makes the US deterrence calculus more difficult. Furthermore, the DIA analysis asserts, “The PLA is implementing a launch-on-warning posture where it would be able to, upon warning of [a] missile strike, launch a counterstrike before an enemy first strike can detonate.” Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Russia is assisting China to establish a ballistic missile “early warning system.”
There seems to be little desire on the part of Beijing to engage in nuclear disarmament talks as China’s nuclear capability is in ascendancy. The Biden-Harris administration’s first attempts to create a mutual accommodation relationship with the PRC set the stage for a geopolitical mismatch that has continued until this day. The Chinese gained the negotiation’s upper hand and have not let go. Despite the Biden-Harris administration’s entreaties to Chinese leadership to cease aggressive activities against Taiwan, the intensity has increased. In addition, the military collaboration between the PLA and Russia’s armed forces has grown.
Russia sustains its stockpile of 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads with a bomber force, submarine fleet, and ground-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles to deliver the warheads. Additionally, Russia claims to have nuclear weapons capable of avoiding US countermeasures. Sino-Russian military exercises have increased in frequency and magnitude. “Russia launched its largest navy drills of the post-Soviet era … alongside Chinese warships, the latest sign of deepening military cooperation between the two global powers. The drills will continue until September 16 and will involve more than 400 warships, submarines, and other maritime vessels,” France 24 reported.
Other Global Actors Present Threats
North Korea presents a unique problem for the United States. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Pyongyang’s missile testing became less frequent, around 50 for nearly three years, during the Trump administration (no tests in 2018). North Korean tests began again in earnest with the Biden-Harris national security team in position. Between January 2021 and April 2023, there were more than 130 test firings by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). The DIA assessment of North Korea’s nuclear capability concludes: “North Korea has demonstrated the capability to produce plutonium and highly enriched uranium, has conducted nuclear tests, and has developed new ballistic missiles systems intended to strike regional and CONUS [Continental United States] targets.” The DPRK’s recent military agreement with Russia makes North Korea a more formidable threat than in the past.
The Middle East teeters on the brink of an Iran armed with nuclear weapons. Recent attacks on Israel by Iran are testimony to Tehran’s missile capability for launching a nuclear warhead. The failure of Barack Obama’s Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to limit the development of ballistic missile technology is one of the reasons the Trump administration withdrew from the agreement. As a result, “The Iranian missile force is the largest in the Middle East and can strike targets up to 2,000 km (over 1,200 miles) from Iran’s borders.” Numerous recent assessments reveal Iran may be on the cusp of having the wherewithal to develop a nuclear weapon. The Biden-Harris administration has failed to check Iran’s aggression through its proxies or Tehran’s direct attacks on Israel.
There have been few times in America’s recent history when the threat to the US homeland has been as significant. As Election Day looms, voters must consider the US position in a dangerous world. It is not growing less perilous. The DIA report is a call to action.
Dave is a retired U.S. Air Force Pilot with over 180 combat missions in Vietnam. He is the former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Comptroller and has served in executive positions in the private sector aerospace and defense industry. This article was first published HERE
6 comments:
“The Middle East teeters on the brink of an Iran armed with nuclear weapons”.
Did you deliberately fail to mention “The Samson Option: Israel’s Plan to Nuke Its Opponents”?
As of 2021, researchers estimate that Israel possesses ninety nuclear warheads, capable of being delivered by aircraft, land-based ballistic missiles, and sea-based cruise missiles. Israel is reserving these weapons for “the Samson Option”: an all-out assault on the civilian population centers of its opponents.
"Did you deliberately fail to mention “The Samson Option: Israel’s Plan to Nuke Its Opponents”?"
The Samson Option is far worse than Israel nuking its opponents (with its illegally acquired nuclear weapons, which it officially denies under a doctrine of "nuclear ambiguity").
Israeli historian Martin van Creveld:
"We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force. Let me quote General Moshe Dayan: 'Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.' I consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the thirtieth strongest in the world, but rather the second or third. We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under."
The Samson Option is taking out its "friends" and foes alike with nuclear weapons, in the event that Israel faces a catastrophic defeat.
Yes, and with "friends" like these, who needs enemies.
Madame Blavatsky follows the time honoured tradition of holding Israel accountable to a different standard from the rest of the world. How is the fighting talk of Dayan any different from the universally accepted cold war MAD doctrine (mutually assured destruction)? It"s called deterrence, and the nuclear option allows Israel to punch above its weight in a sea of Islamic hatred. And make no mistake. Any nuclear action by Israel will only be triggered an overwhelming attack by the forces of Islam that are committed to wiping Israel off the map. So why shouldn't Israel take Islam at its word and prepare for the worst. The Iron Dome does not have an infinite supply of ammunition and Hezbullah and Iran already have enough conventional warheads to reduce Israel's cities to rubble. But unlike the Jews of Masada, today's Jews are not giving up their homeland without a fight. Islam will trigger the conflagration because they have been at it since the seventh century and consider they have unfinished business. On the other hand, the Jews have nowhere left to run. Go figure.
The Samson Option stands in contrast to doctrines embraced by other nuclear powers, such as “Mutually Assured Destruction” (MAD). Developed during the Cold War, MAD posits that nuclear powers like the United States and the Soviet Union could deter each other from ever using nuclear weapons through the threat of retaliatory strikes—that is, if one nuked the other, the other would nuke back, meaning neither would survive. Unlike MAD, Israel’s Samson Option specifically threatens its non-nuclear opponents.
MAD is designed to deter war or prevent war from escalating to nuclear use.
The Samson Option is not designed to deter a nuclear adversary from a first strike or counter strike, rather, its purported purpose is to ensure Israel’s survival. Under the Samson Option, nuclear weapons would be deliberately used against a non-nuclear adversary as a last resort to prevent an Israeli defeat.
Example, even after the Israeli military managed to repel the Palestinian militants, at least one Israeli politician called for the use of nuclear weapons against Gaza, as reported by the Associated Press and others.
"How is the fighting talk of Dayan any different from the universally accepted cold war MAD doctrine (mutually assured destruction)? "
Re-read his quote: the Samson Option is about taking down the world, not just Israel's putative enemies.
When the Jewish supremacists are willing to take out their "friends" as well as their foes if Israel is in danger, they are the last people on the planet who should ever have access to nuclear weapons.
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