David Farrar: A dominant victory

Trump’s victory over Harris was decisive enough that Democrats don’t have to try and second-guess decisions such as not picking Shapiro as VP, or not going on Josh Rogan. The fact almost every county in the US showed a swing to Trump indicates this was not a victory that could have been stopped by better tactics.

This may be a blessing in disguise for the Democrats because rather than make excuses like they did in 2016 (The Comey letter, the hacked DNC e-mails), they need to accept that they need to make changes to be more electable in future. I will come back to this.

Looking at the results, we have:

Presidency

Trump will win 312 to 226, having swept all seven swing states. This is slightly better than the 306 to 232 he got in 2016 and Biden got in 2020.

He also looks to have won the popular vote, where he has a 3.4% lead currently. So Democrats can’t say he only won due to the Electoral College.

Senate

The GOP has won 52 seats already, and are ahead in Nevada and Pennsylvania which would Gove them 54 seats. Trailing slightly in Michigan and Wisconsin.

A 54 seat majority will mean that the two more moderate Republicans will not have the balance of power, and Trump will be able to get most things easily through the Senate. It also ironically helps the moderated Republicans as they can vote against Trump on some issues (which helps them get re-elected) but not actually stop the agenda (which can upset the base).

I think it is also very likely the Republican majority willed the filibuster, so laws can pass with a simple majority. The Democrats made the fatal mistake of saying they want to end the filibuster, but being unable to do so. This means the Republicans know that the Democrats will get rid of it next time (if they can), so there is no incentive to keep it, as when the Republicans hit the minority it will go anyway. So this will be a key thing to watch for – does the filibuster go, and who becomes the new Senate Majority Leader.

House

The Republicans are at 202, and need 218 to keep the majority. They have four fairly safe seats which brings them to 206. They lead in 11 toss-up seats. If they keep the lead in those they make 217 – one short. But they have leads in two seats that Democrats were seen as likely to hold. However one is only 71% counted, while the other is over 95%. So they have a path to 219, but could fall short. It may take days or longer to know who wins the House.

If the Republicans retain the House, then Trump will be able to pass significant legislation. If he doesn’t, then more rule by executive order.

Demographic shifts

They did exit polls in 10 key states (so not the whole country). Some key data points:

• Trump got 21% of the black men vote
• Trump won Latino men by 55% to 43%
• Trump won men under 30 by 49% to 47%
• Trump won never attended college by 63% to 35%
• Harris won post-graduate degree holders by 59% to 38%
• Harris won those earning (family income) over $200k by 51% to 45%
• Trump won those earning $30k to $50k by 53% to 45%
• Trump won veterans 65% to 34%
• Trump won voters who said the economy, immigration of foreign policy was the most important issue
• Harris won voters who said abortion or democracy was the most important issue
• While Harris won by 87% to 10% those said abortion should be legal in all cases, it was 495 each for those said it should be legal in most cases.

The changes from 2016 and 2020 are massive in some cases:

• Women went +13% for Clinton and only +8% for Harris – so Trump did relatively better with women
• Men went +11% for Trump in 2016 and +13% in 2020
• Clinton won Latino men by +31% and in 2024 Trump won by +12% – a massive massive change
• Latino women went from +44% Clinton in 2016 to +22% Harris in 2024 – also a big swing
• Voters of colour with no degree went from +56% Clinton to +30% Harris
• Under 30s went from +19% Clinton to +11% Harris
• Those who think abortion should be legal in most (not all) cases went from +38% for Biden in 2020 to tied in 2024

This has huge ramifications for Democrats in a number of areas. The massive swing for Hispanics to Trump could lock the Republicans in power for a generation, if they can keep them. After 2012, the Republicans were facing the Hispanic vote becoming like the Black vote – locked in for Democrats. Trump won Hispanics over, despite the conventional wisdom that his attacks on immigrants would see Hispanics vote against him.

The big lesson for Democrats is that have to stop seeing voters through a race lens. They seemed to think that as most Hispanics are immigrants, they will vote on the issue of immigration. They voted on incomes and jobs and leadership.

The abortion issue is also one that didn’t play as well for Democrats as they thought. Certainly for those who think abortion should be legal in all circumstances, it was a huge issue. But for those who want abortion legal, but in most (not all) circumstances they voted equally for Trump and Harris.

For the Democrats to win in 2028 (and JD Vance could be a formidable candidate), they need to do the following (in my opinion):

• Enthusiastically support making the border more secure. You can be 100% pro-immigration but also 100% pro a secure border. If the Democrats want to win in 2028, they should support construction measures that make the border more physically secure, and also support some sort of out of country processing of asylum claims as this has become a rampant backdoor.
• If Trump proceeds with his tariffs, they should use this to position themselves as the party of low inflation. The fact they presided over two years of very high inflation was a major factor in their result.
• They need to get less woke. They need to understand that working class voters and many Hispanic voters are not into DEI and don’t think men should compete in women’s sports. Of course they will never be “conservative” on these issues, but they need to stop seeing everything through an intersectional lens. A huge number of voters were prepared to overlook all of Trump’s flaws because they thought the country’s institutions were so hostile to them.
• Recognise that abortion will not be a major issue by 2028, unless there is some sort of federal ban, or mail order abortion drugs are restricted. If abortion rights did not win in 2024, it won’t in 2028. This is not to say Democrats should change their position (I personally support abortion being legal up to viability) but that they shouldn’t see it as the main issue to campaign on.
• Democracy may be an issue that works for Democrats in 2028. Trump won’t be on the ballot again, so the issue will probably be less potent. But if he acts in an excessively authoritarian way in office, then Vance may find it uncomfortable to defend those in 2028

This is more a list of what the Democrats shouldn’t do, rather than what they should do to win. That is because it is too far out to know what will be the issues most useful to them. However it is clear that if they don’t get many Hispanic voters back, they are unlikely to be back in power anytime soon.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.