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Monday, November 4, 2024

David Farrar: Major party vote share


There has been some discussion that NZ may follow other countries with the dominant major parties fading over time, to be replaced by more extreme ones. I thought it would be useful to look at the combined vote share for National and Labour under MMP.

  • 1996: 62%
  • 1999: 69%
  • 2002: 62%
  • 2005: 80%
  • 2008: 79%
  • 2011: 75%
  • 2014: 72%
  • 2017: 81%
  • 2020: 76%
  • 2023: 65%
I don’t see a trend there. The 2023 result was greater than the first three MMP elections. It is quite possible support for the two major parties will never get back to high 70s, but that is not to say it will drop further.

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

David interesting stats.

Would it be fair to say that all 3 of the left leaning parties are becoming more extreme and moving to far left?

Would it also be fair to say that labours share of the vote is being swallowed up by the more radical extreme far left parties?

Would it also be fair to say that the rhetoric coming from all 3 of the far left parties is more extreme than ever before?

Chuck Bird said...

What is needed is a binding referendum on the racist Maori seats. If the Maori Party do not become less racist they will not make the 5%.

Anonymous said...

Yes ... and we need it tomorrow. Mr Luxon, are you listening? These gratuitious seats are a historic anomaly that should have been gone when MMP was introduced and keeping them beyond their is damaging New Zealand and makes a complete mockery of proportional representation.