I am still a little surprised, though, that we seem to be making an awful lot of the fact that two well-known bits of data have never been joined together before to allegedly give us this startlingly new look at our lives and future.
The land, in bits of the country, moves. And where it moves down, and in some areas, we are talking about four millimetres a year, this makes a real difference, if you are looking to calculate when the tide is in to your lounge and you are moving out.
What we must point out, and the scientists never like to hear, is that the model around sea level isn't new. It’s the same old model they have used for years, so its accuracy is in some doubt.
So, by the time you take the doubt, the fact we've been worried about these things seemingly forever, and this new addition of land movement, the question is, has a lot changed? They say, yes of course. Instead of your town being underwater in 60 years it might be 20 years. Then again, it might not.
What we do know is the media is always up for a good old scare story, hence, they continue to give precedence to the alarmism. But in the alarmism is part of the problem, how many times can they scream disaster before it wears off? It's already started to wear off and has been doing so for years.
I note with irony on some of this modelling Auckland's Britomart transport facility would be swamped. That's odd because Britomart is new. Why would they build new stuff at the cost of hundreds of millions only to see it swamped?
The other part of it is size. We can't handle a lot in this country.
We can't build roads well, we can't keep people here, we don’t pay particularly well, our productivity is famously bad, Covid has been a dreadful muddle of angst, anger and poor delivery, and our education system is shocking, in parts.
So, the idea of being able to organise ourselves in a way that deals to something as large and overpowering as climate and where we live, I think is a bridge too far.
In other words, it's like the pandemic itself. People like Bill Gates warned of pandemics, we didn’t listen. People like the W.H.O warned of the rich countries robbing the poor of access to vaccines, we haven't listened.
Any number of climate conferences chocked to the gunnels with alarmism have been held, have promises made, and still, we are getting next to nowhere.
So the reality check is this, look up your area in this sparkling new tool, find out just when it is you need a snorkel, and then get back to life.
Because history shows way more accurately than any ocean rise model, we ain't changing anything.
What we do know is the media is always up for a good old scare story, hence, they continue to give precedence to the alarmism. But in the alarmism is part of the problem, how many times can they scream disaster before it wears off? It's already started to wear off and has been doing so for years.
I note with irony on some of this modelling Auckland's Britomart transport facility would be swamped. That's odd because Britomart is new. Why would they build new stuff at the cost of hundreds of millions only to see it swamped?
The other part of it is size. We can't handle a lot in this country.
We can't build roads well, we can't keep people here, we don’t pay particularly well, our productivity is famously bad, Covid has been a dreadful muddle of angst, anger and poor delivery, and our education system is shocking, in parts.
So, the idea of being able to organise ourselves in a way that deals to something as large and overpowering as climate and where we live, I think is a bridge too far.
In other words, it's like the pandemic itself. People like Bill Gates warned of pandemics, we didn’t listen. People like the W.H.O warned of the rich countries robbing the poor of access to vaccines, we haven't listened.
Any number of climate conferences chocked to the gunnels with alarmism have been held, have promises made, and still, we are getting next to nowhere.
So the reality check is this, look up your area in this sparkling new tool, find out just when it is you need a snorkel, and then get back to life.
Because history shows way more accurately than any ocean rise model, we ain't changing anything.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings.
15 comments:
So bang on. Sea level rise has been conistent in its rising rate- its not accelerating at all. None of the data they show is new at all. Can be found at tide guage websites .And really it’s not going to impact for another 100 years. Plenty of time to adapt. If it even changes - nothing preventing the world stopping and then lowering sea level instead. Our actual influence of this is so small it’s not funny. What is truly horrible is the interplay between labour and media peddling fear day in day out. When u dive in to the ipcc report they state they have really low confidence in a lot of the models…. It’s just crazy how dramatic and fear mongering govt and councils are. They should focus on no pollution - that’s common sense. But climate change is pseudo science- based on models not evidence
Spot on Mike. Where all over being fearful of possible future catastrophe.
The way the msm have pushed this latest long shot scenario, worked on and promoted by so called climate scientists out of New Zealand Universities using alternate native science. How could we all be so gullible as to trust any of their projections.
I was tired of it about 10 years ago.
There is still little or no evidence to show that this warming is not entirely natural. Compared to recent warmings in our current interglacial period (last 12-14 thousand years) it is unexceptional in global temperature or severe weather.
Yes, CO2 is a greenhouse gas but it is the weakest greenhouse gas and has no relationship with past warming and cooling episodes.
i understand that the total amount of water in earth's ecosystem is fixed - at least that's what water cycle teaches us. the only rationale for increased water level (besides regular tides and waves) could only be all ice melting away. how about we ask a high school student to calculate the total impact of that and then move all 'snowflakes' to a 'safe space' that will be safe forever.
i just don't understand why people cannot move to a higher altitude if they are so worried. there are free maps available online that show this information (assuming one remembers geography lessons).
Follow the money. Who is funding the research and for whom?
I am a climate sceptic Tonga's volcano proves that it could preduce more noxious climate changing gases in three minutes than the world does in a decade.
I am interested in this only because is was an alarmist TV3 article that had everyone reporting breathing heavily like they were about to orgasm at its brilliance of discovery.
Since when did geology and tectonics have ANYTHING to do with climate change?
The equivocal part of the research is that 48% of climate scientists disagree with the other 48% and the remain 4% are unemployed because they are probably correct.
These climate models often use research that contradicts itself and more importantly they never use ancient historical climate (and geological record of plant and animal cycles) in these models. When you literally leave out millions of years of climate history in your model your Tamiya Sherman Tank is actually not full size its just a 1/72 scale.
IMO this is another smokescreen as we have just been gaslighted by all involved. Follow the money, it'll be flowing out of your pocket into someone elses and in 20 years time a new model will appear.........
Well said Mike,
The "climate change" panic is mainly a media beat-up.
I can recall about 10 years ago I decided that it was about time for me to pay attention to the global warming topic and do some research into it to find out what was the truth behind all the headlines and green screamers.
Being a senior pharmacist, and accustomed to assessing all sorts of claims re medicines, I used a similar process to look at "global warming". The scientific approach.
What I rapidly found, and somewhat to my surprise, was that almost ALL of the IPCC computer model predictions did not occur. Most of their "computer models" were ridiculous exaggerations (Like the Suan Hendy 85,000 Kiwis dead from Covid computer model !!)
Also, all of the dire predictions made by everybody from Prince Charles to Attenborough, simply did not occur. It was all apocalyptic panic merchant behavior.
I also found authouritive scientific records and graphs coing back over 500 million years, showing that there is no cause-and-effect relationship between CO2 and global temp. It is very clear that climate change is a natural process, and that human CO2 emissions do not cause apocalyptic global warming. And yes - sea level has been rising slowly and steadily, for several hundred years, as the planet slowly warms up from the Little Ice Age. No panic.
China is opening 3 new coal mines now. The amount of coal burnt in India and China a day would be equal to NZ's annual air pollution so why do the mainstream media keep feeding us the climate emergency bullshit? Probably coz they are in the team of $55 million. Kiwialan.
Over the past 12mths long time observers of the Auckland harbour and Sydney harbour say there have been no changes in sea level.Oh!and what about the proposed partly submerged stadium proposed by experts.And then theres the rich and famous all with mansions by the sea side.
And for more on debunking sea level rise this is a good read ; https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/05/03/sea-level-rise-and-fall-slowing-down-to-speed-up/
And if you want to check out actual rise at a beach near you ; http://www.sealevel.info/data.php#search
Well said Mike. I think of more importance is the trashing and over fishing of our oceans. If we keep it up everything else will be inconsequential.
It is a fact that Great Britain was part of the main landmass of Europe.
Humans migrated across doggerland which was the submerged landbridge between the current GB and Europe and settled.
Then the earth started to cool and entered into an iceage which saw a majority of Britain covered by the artic ice cap.
Then the earth in the totally natural cycle began to warm up again, the ice melted and retreated. This resulted in the sea rising and the creation of the English Channel making GB and island.
It is criminal that all of this history is being now hidden and not taught to our children at school.
Way too much money is being made by the Climate Change Alarmism industry.
The thought that down town Auckland is sinking is nothing new. This was known back in at least 1980. Probably the late 70s I recall family conversations about this.
It's common sense! It's all reclaimed land. Of course it will sink!
And actual sea level rise data from NOAA- check out Wellington ; https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=690-011
I wonder if there’s an appetite to hold the government, scientists and institutions in banking and insurance to account for their climate alarmism and subsequent policy and product costs - if it turns out all the models are infact wrong. Judging from NOAAA tide giage levels there is no acceleration and sea level is not likley an issue for 150/200 years- or not at all. Politicians and organisations making us pay or inflicting damage and misuse of public funds on models( and no evidence ) need to be held accountable and should be sued for damages.
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