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Monday, August 1, 2022

Mike Hosking: Ardern's chances for a third term are fading fast


I am led to believe that today marks the fifth anniversary of Jacinda Ardern and her arrival as head of the Labour Party.

Andrew Little imploded. But, to his credit, he admitted he wasn’t the man and quit.

In came this new young leader whose job was to resurrect the Labour fortunes which were at the time sitting at about 24 percent in the polls. Resurrect them she did. On election night they ended up with about 37 percent. I distinctly remember it. I was hosting the television coverage and I watched as she left her house headed for the big speech. She looked deflated. Yes, it wasn’t 24 percent but it also wasn’t a win.

National beat them and fairly easily, but they would need Winston Peters. And so the latest chapter of the New Zealand government had begun. The rest is history but the history is the story of Ardern.

And the story on this day marking five years shows us the best days are behind her. Short of her turning out to be a John Howard type figure, which she isn't, it's all downhill from here.

The downhill part is already well underway. She remains the preferred Prime Minister, but by a decreasing amount. Her party is now behind National consistently. she faces a very rough ride between now and next year to try and resurrect her chances of getting another term.

I don't think she can do it. I think Labour are toast. I doubt she will be rolled, they have no real talent. But I wouldn't rule out her walking away.

She looks increasingly tired and out of ideas. She is no longer omnipresent and that may be deliberate given when she was omnipresent a lot of people started to go off her.

That will be the story of her prime ministership. She was thrust into office and initially adored. Events you could never see coming gave her an international reputation she could only ever have dreamed of. But domestically, where the votes are, it all wore fairly thin fairly quickly.

This is a government that doesn’t actually do stuff. They talk they promise, they hold press conferences, but they don’t get stuff done. They spend money, and God knows where it goes.

So, the love affair has ended and we have seen the rise of the anger and frustration. On a chart it would start at the bottom on the left, rocket up, peak quickly, and the downhill gradient is increasingly steep.

You need three terms in this country to head into the halls of greatness. Ardern shone bright for a while there in the early days, she will see the sixth anniversary this time next year.

But that, my bet, will be that.

Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings.

4 comments:

Terry Morrissey said...

If it wasn't for the corrupt labour cult buying the corrupt media and all the propaganda she wouldn't be anywhere near as high in the polls. If the media told the truth she would already be history because the truth would have her polling negative. Very doubtful whether she will see the sixth anniversary as I reckon she will desert the sinking ship. Narcissists do not tolerate being criticised. She does in fact fulfil the whole nine traits of NPD, as do the majority of her cult.

cuisle said...

The entire system is utterly corrupt. It's not just Labour. National, ACT, the Maori Party and the Greens are every bit as corrupt. The system must be demolished.

Anonymous said...

National are not going to save us from The Maori Apartheid that Jacinda Ardern and her cabinet has allowed to be enabled.
Only 7 of the National caucus them are non woke, the 8th, Bridges has left already.
REM, under John Key, National signed the UNDIP even when Maori can name the 7 Waka they came to NZ on.
The TOW is at the center of National's Constitution, as the founding document of NZ.
Christopher Luxon will be Labour-Lite based on his utterances against it up to now.
Sadly, we have a frightening future joirney as a nation into Undemocractic Tribal controlled politics.
MikeNZ

John S said...

In response to Cuisle -and replace it with what?