Thursday, September 28, 2023

Cam Slater: New Poll Confirms Winston as Kingmaker

1News has released the latest 1News/Verian Poll and it confirms the Newshub poll. The trend is the most important thing and the trend says National and Labour are slipping away, Act has stalled, and Winston Peters is on a surge, gaining 1 per cent a week.

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New Zealand First has strengthened its chances of taking a place in the next government, according to the latest 1News Verian Poll results.

Winston Peters’ party has lifted another 1% to 6% since last week, giving it some breathing space above the threshold for a place in Parliament.

The poll result caps a dramatic rise for Peters and his party, which was on just 3% and facing another term in the Parliamentary wilderness in July’s poll.

National, meanwhile, was down 1% to 36% in tonight’s results and Act was steady on 12%. That would give National 45 seats and Act 15 – a total of 60 seats, one short of the 61 needed to form a government – and leave National leader Christopher Luxon relying on Peters’ support.

Luxon this week opened the door to NZ First saying, if he needed to, he would pick up the phone to Peters after October 14’s election results are in.

Tonight’s poll indicated NZ First would have eight MPs and that Luxon would be making that call.

This looked the most likely scenario on tonight’s poll results as the left bloc was a distance from gaining enough seats to form a government.

Labour continued its gradual slide, down another 1% to 26% – a 10% drop since March – giving the party just 33 MPs.

The Greens were up 1% to 13%, giving them a projected 17 MPs, and Te Pati Maori was down 1% to 2%. Presuming Te Pati Maori co-leader Rawiri Waititi retains the Waiariki electorate, the party would get two seats. That would leave the left bloc well short on 52 MPs.

Labour’s election is over. They cannot and will not recover in time for the election. People have simply stopped listening. Chris Hipkins should save his voice so he can give a concession speech on October 14.

Liz Gunn’s claim that there are two million voters out there waiting to vote for her is looking increasingly silly. Unless they are running a psyop getting their supporters to answer the pollsters with anything but NZLoyal. It’s a cunning ploy, and who knows it might just work…or not.

All the other minnow parties are likewise wasting their time and their supporters’ votes, and they really need to just give it up. They are a busted flush.

I’ve long predicted the trend would happen like this. We are back to the normal polling cycle this election, and National will slide back further: there is nothing major they can announce that will act as a circuit breaker.

The trend also shows that voters really want a handbrake, in the form of NZ First.

Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.


Anonymous said...

Never underestimate what options might emerge after we know the results on 14 October. Winston on cross benches, David on cross benches, Hipkins to resign as Labour Party leader, as Helen did, after disastrous result on election night, new Labour Party leader to negotiate with Winston.........arrhhh I could go on!!

Rob Beechey said...

The MSM has no credibility to hold these idiot debates. Where are the independent moderators of yesterday? Their bias is on full display. Any sane person immediately switches to something more stimulating like the test pattern. New Zealand’s financially plight is frightening. The architects of this mess are available to be shamed and held accountable instead of being asked for their favourite colour.

Anonymous said...

After their resounding defeat they will walk away with their heads held high. They are so entitled they will show no shame. They will curse the river of filth and move on to their next position with no accountability.
I see Stuart Nash has a new position with a global recruitment firm. I wonder if it has anything to do with immigration?
That's another scam. We should have rolling demonstrations around our international airports to warn prospective immigrants that it's not a bed of roses here. It's about all we could do to deter them.

Anonymous said...

Groundhog day