Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Cam Slater: Newshub Poll - Winston Game On

The latest Newshub/Reid Research poll is out and it confirms that Labour are toast. But it also shows what I have been predicting for months: that National’s support would wane and NZ First’s would grow. No wonder Christopher Luxon felt squeezed enough to have to confirm he’d pick up the phone after the results are known and call Winston Peters to get discussions underway.

Click image to view

National leader Christopher Luxon is keeping the option of working with Winston Peters warm, a necessary move, according to our latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.

Both Labour and National have taken a dive, while Peters’ New Zealand First has crossed the threshold. He’s coming back to Parliament on these numbers and the Kingmaker crown is sitting atop his head once more.

Peters has clawed his way past the threshold and Luxon’s path to power lies in his hands.

Chris Hipkins has failed to turn the red ship around. It’s still sinking at 26.5 percent. That’s only down 0.3, but anything but up is a catastrophe this late in the campaign.

National’s had the wind knocked out of its sails too. It’s on 39.1 percent, down 1.8.

ACT’s acting up has crashed its vote with a mighty tumble down to the single digits at 8.8 percent. That’s a fall of 1.3.

The Greens are picking up what Labour is losing. It’s on 14.2 percent, up 1.9.

New Zealand First has been resurrected. It’s sitting on 5.2 percent – across the line. That means Peters is back

Te Pati Maori’s losing momentum, falling down to 2.2 percent. The Opportunities Party is hot on their tails at 1.9 percent and the New Conservatives are at 1.1 percent.

All would need an electorate seat to make it in.
Click image to view

David Seymour’s smug antics are backfiring. With Christopher Luxon having been forced to admit he’ll call Winston Peters, that’s the signal for which many reluctant voters have been waiting: that NZ First will be back in, and National will talk to them.

I expect NZ First to surge in the polls. NZ First is now a safe haven for people to place their vote.

Christopher Luxon is now in front of Chris Hipkins in the Preferred PM stakes:

For the first time in six years, Labour’s leader is no longer the most popular.

The poll results show National’s Christopher Luxon is on 24 percent, up 1.5, while Labour’s Chris Hipkins has tumbled down 3.4 points to 19.1 percent. Luxon now has five points on Hipkins.

No one is listening to Hipkins anymore. He’d be better to shut up shop and say and do nothing more in the campaign.

It’s game over for Labour.

Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.


Anonymous said...

Isn’t it funny how the media play with the public like a cat playing with a mouse.
The polls are up, the polls are down.
Labour said this National said that.
Blah, blah, blah.
Nothing constructive at all.
And in the end of all the machinations, it’s too close to call. When the reality is Labour are toast and we all know it.
Turn it all off, go read a book and vote however you want.

Valid Point said...

NZ First's audience are a mix of soft Labour voters with a smattering of oldies pining for Muldoon. Add that to twenty years of Peter's history with Labour,and I'm still not buying Winston will go with National. If it's vaguely close, Peters will form a centre left government thinking he can run the whole show - and finally get the PM role he covets. Remember 2017.