I think all the signs now point to the fact that National can’t do it without him.
The Herald’s Poll of Polls says National and ACT have a 40 percent chance of forming Government alone. With Winston, it’s a 99.7 percent chance.
The big donors are backing him, he’s pulling in more money right now than in any other election beforehand- and it’s coming from the big end of town.
He wasn’t in the debate last night, but Paddy Gower dedicated an entire section to talking about him. And out of the parties on the right, NZ First is the only one going up in the polls.
National looks like it might actually have peaked already. The party hit its highest point a couple of weeks ago and it’s been falling slightly in the polls since then.
ACT is kind of hard to judge, but it’s either stable or falling slightly- it’s certainly not climbing.
NZ First? That one is going up.
I think those donations are significant, by the way. The rank group, which is connected to Graham Hart, the richest man in New Zealand, gave Winston Peters $100,000.
And they did that more than two weeks before donating to ACT and National.
Winston’s getting money from the same rich-listers donating to ACT and National. These guys know how to sniff the breeze, that’s why they’re wealthy- because they read things before they happen.
And they’re backing Winnie.
I'm baffled.
This is the guy who earned the wrath of centre-right voters only 6 years ago for choosing Jacinda when Bill English had earned more vote.
And yet, here we are- there are centre-right voters who are backing him, who are trusting him to not make them angry again.
Watch what’s about to happen. We're gonna talk a lot about Winston between now and election night, because he’s relevant again.
NZ First was 6 percent in the One News/Verian poll last night, so book them in for a possible 7 or 8 on election night. Because the more we talk about them, the more they climb.
And if these trends continue, you ain’t getting a change of Government without Uncle Winston in there.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show.
3 comments:
It baffles me how much the main stream media can't stand winston. He calls a spade a spade against woke journalists and is against co - governanace and racism in nz. The nz people ( those of us still living here) have had a gutsful of main stream media, and appreciate winston for calling out the bs. Even zb very rarely mentions co- governance or he pua pua and all the dire consequences that would mean for nz.
NZ First's inclusion in government is the only hope for 2024-26 because:
1.its views on co-governance and the He Puapua agenda will be clear;
2.it will call out any delay by National in repealing of CG-based legislation;
3.it will allow ACT's proposed " debate and referendum on co-governance in 2024-26" to take place in a context of critical analysis - not race-based identity politics. Also, it will pressure National to finally agree to this debate - Luxon is not supporting it.
*Without NZF, this debate will be framed as " racist" by those who oppose consulting the NZ people.
It should not come as a surprise. Luxon is proving himself to be very weak. He may have been a good corporate manager but he is definitely not a leader. He will prove to be only marginally better than Hipkins, as a PM.
I'm not sure what has got into Seymore lately. ACT have some good policies but they will need the extra leverage that NZF can provide to get those policies through. So they will have to work with NZF whether Seymore likes it or not. It would not surprise me to see National reach out for support from the Greens on some issues, to get things through without their partner's support.
So the big guys, who hopefully will be at least partly, looking at the big picture of what is good for NZ as a whole, are doing the right thing backing NZF.
What is not on offer, but is desperately needed in NZ, is a visionary leader with a strong backbone.
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