Tuesday, October 5, 2021

Ross Meurant: Political Predictions

Prediction One:

Rt. Hon Winston Peters will garner more than five percent voter support at the next General Election and will to return to the Hallowed Halls of Power.

Private polling to which I have been privy (and not via my old mate Winston because we are no longer mates and don’t speak), have NZ First at well over five percent.

Prediction Two:

Winston will emerge King Maker – and this time, He will be King.

Whichever of the other parties agrees that Winston will be the Prime Minister, will receive Winston’s endorsement to form a coalition with him.

How and why can this happen?

The polls are already demonstrating that the pendulum is now swinging back toward the centre.

And, based on the rising cacophony of street speak, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and her government, is in trouble.

Elevating one ethic culture about all others which contribute to making New Zealand what it is, is not going down well, at all.   Labour’s version of apartheid in New Zealand is, A Step Too Far.  (1)

Resentment, contempt and disgust at being force fed Maori language, is now a widely shared reaction to constant bombardment of a language many and dare I say, the majority of New Zealanders consider to be of no international career value and a waste of time.

For some Maori, preservation of their language is important, as is preservation of language for all cultures.  But, as with every other culture in New Zealand except Maori, preservation of their heritage has been achieved without government funding and forced “acceptance” of that culture on others.

For any government, to act with high handed contumacious disregard for the majority, is a proven pathway to perdition.

Then there’s COVID-19 or Delta or whatever new variation of virus which currently plagues the world.

It took Sir John Key to do what the National Party has failed to do and what ACT leader David Seymour tried to do, and that was confront and expose the government and its entourage of virologist modellers and other faceless bureaucrats, for a kaleidoscope of faults.

Within 24 hours of John Key’s epistle, Labour progressively but swiftly, abolished its Zero target.

The outcome of commanding subservience through sowing fear and anxiety, abated – slightly.

Portents of unmitigated disaster have evaporated – although some soothsayers of doom and gloom, do still lurk in the shadows.

Isolating New Zealand from an outside world which has come to terms with the reality that the Virus cannot be extinguished, was brought to a halt by Sir John Key.

John Key justifiably pigeon-holed NZ as a Hermit state.  He was right. The virus is something we must all learn to live with.

New Zealand is a state where young generations are being denied the opportunity and the right, to socialize and make love and step on the wild side. 

A life style older generations took for granted – but – which is now denied – under threats of arrest and prosecution.

PS Let me say here - the reluctance of our police to emulate the style of law enforcement being handed out by Victorian police across the Tasman, is something for which we should all be grateful.

As a former police inspector with an enduring reputation as a commander who during the most violent civil disobedience in our history, played a major role in delivering brutal street justice. (2) , in my opinion, the NZ police conduct in these trying times, is highly commendable

Then there is the economic damage.  

Small business provides the largest number of jobs and that means a lot of tax paid to the coffers of a government which is rapidly descending into a deficit funded disaster.

These are the real heroes of New Zealand.  These are the people who create employment for others by expanding their businesses and invariably that means, taking out loans using the family home as collateral.  Small businesses are now in the front-line trenches fighting this war.

Regrettably, too many MP’s have absolutely no understanding or nor exposure to this field of battle.

Finally, we come to the psychological damage.

Not only the psychological damage being done to young people who cannot go out for a night on the town to satisfy natural instincts and hunt down the opposite sex.

The damage to the will, of the small business person and family, to continue?  To lose all they have strived to build.  To, try again?

Meanwhile, Jacinda and her bunch of bureaucrats who clamour for media profile, get paid monthly irrespective of what happens.

Prediction Three

Christopher Luxon will lead National into the next General Election.

His Christian faith will appeal to the conservatives and to voters who would otherwise vote for a Christian party.

A Christian party per se, will not succeed.  Variations of this vehicle of faith have all failed.  This time the Messiah is Luxon.

Based on polling and everyday responses to Judith Collins, in my assessment, it’s time she put the Party before her pride and resigned the leadership.  That would be a more gracious exit, than being fired.

Ross Meurant, graduate in politics both at university and as a Member of Parliament; formerly police inspector in charge of Auckland spies; currently Honorary Consul for an African state’ Trustee and CEO of Russian owned commercial assets in New Zealand and has international business interests.


Phil said...

Chris Luxon seems like a nice guy but I don't get any sense of a political ideology from him. It concerns me that he will try and be fair with manipulative people and he will not roll back what is currently being put in place.

DeeM said...

Wow! Those are some pretty far-out-there predictions.

I don't necessarily disagree with P1 and if Peters ends up holding the balance of power he must surely side with National and ACT this time....or will he???? You never can tell with Winston, can you.

I've never considered P2...ever!! So that's taken me by surprise. I think it very, very unlikely...verging on the infinitesimally small.
However, given the choice between this majority Labour government, led by Ardern, and a Labour/(Greens)/NZFirst coalition - should WP do the unconscionable - I would rather have Peters in charge who would stamp out the woke bullshit. Either way it's a Catch 22 if you're looking for good government.

As for P3, Luxon probably will succeed Collins, but National will then get more and more woke until they adopt most of Labour's separatism in a watered-down form. They'll just be a caretaker until NZ is stupid enough to elect Labour again and He Puapua will be back on, full paddles ahead on the waka.

Based on Ross' assumption that Labour abandoned their elimination strategy immediately after Sir JK spoke forth on the matter, maybe National should offer him his old job back in exchange for pretty much whatever he wants - one of the smaller Hawaiian islands, perhaps!

One thing's for certain. If even just some of the predictions come true we're in for an exciting ride to 2023. Buckle up, face mask on, sleeve rolled up!

greg d said...

As i mentioned previously i think its time for Winston to re align with National.The electrate won't accept the sniff of another stint with labour/greens will they?Is Winston going to present as the comonsense statesman model or the cunning as a m---- dog type as we've seen before with clark and Adhern The show should start shortly.

Janine said...

Gosh, Ross I sure hope you are wrong. As a person who has voted National in the last two elections( only because they were the lesser of two evils) I won't be voting for them if Luxon is leader. At the moment I am reluctantly leaning towards Act. David Seymour and his team being the only ones worthy of my vote although I disagree with a few of their policies. I definitely wouldn't go with Winston as he is the reason we have this terrible government. Enough said there. Also, people are forgetting that Bill English procured more votes in that particular election and the "Jacindamania" thing was actually a media concoction which I told the Herald at the time. You can pull the wool over the eyes some of the time but eventually people wake up.

Clifford J said...

Well Ross for the main part I think you are on the money.
Why Will Winston be back
1] He offers the only choice for voters who were burnt by the Lange / Douglas Government and cannot ever vote ACT as a consequence. These people are voting not for themselves but for the future of their children and grand children whose future both John Key's National and Jacinda's Labour have compromised.
2] He has always stood for One People, One Country, NZ First, not a country divided on race grounds, as you point out the majority have had a complete gutsful of the separatist policies of this Government. These policies are now the major topic of conversation, at the pub on a Friday night, with the neighbors and the relatives across the country.
3] While he was portrayed as the "handbreak" in the last term and ejected as a consequence, Labour diehards now see he was the voice of reason in a sea of irrational idealism that has been the mode of operation of Jacinda and her team, which will drive her downfall.

These three reasons will get him over 5% maybe 8 provided he sticks to the script.

Now will Winston become King well just suppose ACT rise to 25% (30 mainly list MP's)
and National remain on 25% (30 mainly constituent MP's) equal a draw on even a near draw then Winston becomes Prime Minster as the "Independent Chairman"
A bit of a long bow but hey would make sense on the day

This becomes more likely if Christopher Luxon is the National Leader, a business man who will know how to make a deal, as opposed to Judith who will "die in the ditch" regardless of the cost to herself and National
To that end the longer Judith stays at helm the more likely your scenario is to come to fruitio

Anonymous said...

Nice, a thought-provoking opinion piece.

Prediction 1 is more likely if Peter's denounces Labour. Should not be too hard given they showed their dishonesty by withholding He Puapua from him.

Prediction 2. Never happened here before but power-sharing does happen overseas so it's possible.

I suspect there will be ex NZ First MPs clamouring all over Peters at the moment to get a free ride back into Parliament. He should shake them off and get in some new blood so NZ First has a future and not a past.

maic said...

Winston may well be back but will he make a pledge not to join up with the Labour Party after the election?
While other writers have commented on National Party leadership I am more concerned with National Party policies - or the lack of them. It needs to make clear and unambiguous statements about "Maori with everything" and race based legislation. It's about time it stood up to Maori radicals and supporting leftist groups. It could well set out reforms of our education system which has been infiltrated and adversely influenced by leftist groups and their ideology.
This is no time for a so called Opposition Party to be mealy-mouthed, timid and afraid of offending leftist liberal groups.
Whether you agree with ACT policies or not at least they have the gumption to set out in Plain English their policies and priorities on areas that actually matter to the people out there.
On another site an eighty year old commented that the current government was the worst one in his lifetime. I agree with him.
The country is in a mess with many citizens feeling helpless in the face of the policies of this government. Well, we can't do much now but if we don't throw them out next election the country is going to be a disaster zone (if not one already.)
This whole scenario makes a case for New Zealand citizens to demand Swiss style Direct Democracy where citizens under defined conditions can block government legislation.
Decades ago Swiss citizens adopted Direct Democracy over the (not surprising) objections of their politicians. How wise they were - and how disadvantaged we are by comparison!!

Ian P said...

Tracey Martin should have been Winston's 2IC. Likeable, practical and smart. Last election could have been quite different with a capable woman in the NZ First mix. But, that's now history.

ross meurant said...

Appreciate the comments but be mindful that what I produce is not necessarily my personal preference.

I always endeavor to take an objective view- based on my having been inside the "tent" (or several tents with political connotations) so to speak.

Positan said...

In my circles Winston is still regarded as the betrayer of the country. It was he who enabled a useless, lazy and (at the time) virtually leaderless Labour Party to become government (a party so certain of electoral failure it hadn't bothered to draft a single policy). Peters alone created the opportunity for a charismatic, but totally unskilled, communist to take control of the country and inflict - not just via the Covid restraints - the appalling damage that has ensued to so much of our institutions and society.

In my circles Winston will be forever loathed and abhorred. Given the now all but impossible debt situation we face and the strident measures that'll have to be undertaken, there's no place anywhere for a self-centred, permanently posturing jerk like Peters. If National and ACT are dependent on his support in 2023, we're well and truly stuffed.

Toni said...

Soooo many blame Winston for the situation we are in with this Govt that it will be hard to support him and trust him to do the right thing for all New Zealanders. Where have I hear that before?

David George said...

If National do consider a leadership change they should seriously consider Nicola Willis. Youngish, successful, bright and articulate and a great counter to the "Jacinda Factor", particularly from the women voters.

Les W said...

I think any future coalition govt has to be 10 times better than this current bunch of COMMUNISTIC/RACIST idiots we have in power- they couldn,t organise a P___ Up in a brewery- I sincerely we get them out of power at the next election or we will end up worse than Zimbabwe

HankvonJakoff said...

My predictions; Labour will push to lower the voting age. Labour will win a close election with coalition. Taxes will increase significantly. A Chinese political group will appear on the NZ scene. Act and National will strike an understanding.