A one term President is reasonably uncommon in the United States. Of the 45 pre Joe Biden, 10 were single termers.
Biden will be the 11th. He almost certainly won't run for a second term. If he does, he will almost certainly lose.
It's more than fair, I think, at this point in his first term, one year in, to suggest that most people are disappointed. The numbers certainly back it up. Every poll you can sight has the numbers going the wrong way and the numbers saying those who disapprove of what he's doing far outweigh those that think the opposite.
So, a good day this week then when he signed his infrastructure bill. $1.5 trillion of help for bridges, electric cars, and internet.
It was a bipartisan affair. Showing more perhaps the average American has seen the state of their roads and highways, as opposed to the sheer political genius of the Commander-in-Chief.
The rest of his spending promises remain tied up in different parts of the Congress being pulled, tugged, trimmed, and reworked probably to come out. It might be signed into law, maybe not.
Biden is a living example of the simple truth that just because you don't like what you’ve got, the alternative isn't necessarily better. Donald Trump was mad and still is. But the fact he could still get nominated again and still win tells you all you need to know that he was more divisive than universally repulsive.
In other words, yes there were a heap that didn’t like him, but a lot did. And they've stuck. They would still vote his way.
Now, think of this, if Biden doesn’t run and most assume he won't, the next cab off the nomination rank is the Vice President. It turns out she's even more unpopular than her boss.
The Kamala Harris numbers are atrocious. She is a mix of mess and invisibility. Even CNN, much to the upset of the White House this week, wrote a lengthy piece on just how dysfunctional she and her office is. Could she be so odorous she doesn’t even end up with the nomination? How bad would that look for the Democratic Party if they had to trawl the rank and file because their top two weren't up to it? And how wide is the opening for the Republicans, and maybe even Trump?
There's still about 2 years to go before all this consolidates into something most people will get their head around, and we've yet to deal with next year's mid-terms.
But honestly, one year in with these numbers, Covid, debt, inflation, and Biden's inability to look anything other than bewildered and old, how many would bet against it?
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings.
Breaking Views brings you expert commentary on topical political and policy issues. The views expressed are those of the author alone. The blog is administered by the New Zealand Centre for Political Research, an independent public policy think tank at NZCPR.com - register for the free weekly NZCPR newsletterHERE.