Wednesday, November 3, 2021

Frank Newman: Fourteen Labour MPs would lose their seats


The most recent RoyMorgan poll result shows support for the Government is continuing to slide.  Labour was down 6% points to 39.5%, and well off the 50% gained in the October 2020 general election.

Based on the poll, Labour would lose fourteen of its 65 MPs: Six from the list and eight electorate seats. They are:

List MPs: Liz Craig (41), Ibrahim Omer (42),  Anahila Kanongata'a-Suisuiki (44), Rachel Brooking (46), Helen White (48), and Angela Roberts (50).

Electorate MPs: Shanan Halbert (Northcote), Emily Henderson (Whangarei), Terisa Ngobi (Otaki), Glen Bennett (New Plymouth), Anna Lorck (Tukituki), Jamie Strange (Hamilton East), Ginny Andersen (Hutt South), and Sarah Pallett (Ilam).

Four MPs would lose their electorate seats, but retain their place in Parliament through the party list. They are: Vanushi Walters (Upper Harbour), Priyanca Radhakrishnan (Maungakeikei), Willow-Jean Prime (Northland), and Jo Luxton (Rangitata).

Nelson would become the country's most marginal electorate with Labour's Rachel Boyack losing virtually all of her 4500 vote majority.

The predictions assume the fall in party vote is reflected in the electorate vote, no change to the list rankings of the existing MPs, and a wastage party vote consistent with that at the last general election.

National was up by 3% points to 26% and ACT was unchanged at 16%, a record high. That will be welcome news for National who has to date lost support to ACT. The Maori Party was steady at 2% while the Greens were up 1% point to 10.5%.

RoyMorgan state, "Government Confidence Rating dropped by 15.5pts in October to 109.5 to be at its lowest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to office four years ago in October 2017".

Labour is continuing to gain a disproportionate share of its support from women with 49% support compared to 28.5% from men. Attracting the women's vote will no doubt continue to occupy the minds of opposition party strategists.

What is clear from the polling trend is support for Labour is sliding away as a groundswell of discontent builds against the government's reform agenda.

No doubt Labour's MPs sitting in marginal electorates or in the lower echelons of the party list will be wondering if Labour has gone too hard, too fast, and too extreme. They must be thinking that it is they who will pay the price.

View RoyMorgan Poll HERE >>>

Frank Newman, is a political commentator, investment analyst, and a former local body councillor.


Janine said...

The polls are going in the right direction for sure. Will we be any better off under either Act or National? Maybe Act if they don't get too " Labour cosy" as they are with vaccine passports and all things "covid". National have many woke politicians unfortunately. The said people are not really interested in upholding the traditional National values.

I mean, why say they will return the water in response to Three Waters? It all seems a bit vague.It is actually the New Zealand citizens and especially ratepayers who " own" it. Well, actually we care for and look after all human necessities, like water. Nobody actually "owns" it. It would be more appropriate for National to be indignant and say. " We will return to all Kiwis that which belongs to all of them water, foreshore, land and democracy". That could possible win the election for an opposition party.

Lesley Stephenson said...

Totally agree with Janine....opposition parties don't come out and say what I want to hear....they are still hedging their bets. I am sure most NZers want much more definitive statements...we've had enough of Labour speeches which say nothing.

Allan said...

I fail to see anything worth celebrating in the latest Roy Morgan Poll.
Sure, Labour have lost a bit of traction, but their further Left friends, the Greens will assure they stay in power, nothing will change. Then we have Labour Lyte, known as National, proving they are no more than U.N Puppets, as is the National endorsed ACT, who are gathering the protest vote, purely because they are in parliament, which means the public see them as a 'not wasted' vote. Having said that, if ACT gained sufficient support to make them the Major Party, who knows, things might change. Other wise, welcome in
AGENDA 2030..