Based on the poll, Labour would lose fourteen of its 65 MPs: Six from the list and eight electorate seats. They are:
List MPs: Liz Craig (41), Ibrahim Omer (42), Anahila Kanongata'a-Suisuiki (44), Rachel Brooking (46), Helen White (48), and Angela Roberts (50).
Electorate MPs: Shanan Halbert (Northcote), Emily Henderson (Whangarei), Terisa Ngobi (Otaki), Glen Bennett (New Plymouth), Anna Lorck (Tukituki), Jamie Strange (Hamilton East), Ginny Andersen (Hutt South), and Sarah Pallett (Ilam).
Four MPs would lose their electorate seats, but retain their place in Parliament through the party list. They are: Vanushi Walters (Upper Harbour), Priyanca Radhakrishnan (Maungakeikei), Willow-Jean Prime (Northland), and Jo Luxton (Rangitata).
Nelson would become the country's most marginal electorate with Labour's Rachel Boyack losing virtually all of her 4500 vote majority.
The predictions assume the fall in party vote is reflected in the electorate vote, no change to the list rankings of the existing MPs, and a wastage party vote consistent with that at the last general election.
National was up by 3% points to 26% and ACT was unchanged at 16%, a record high. That will be welcome news for National who has to date lost support to ACT. The Maori Party was steady at 2% while the Greens were up 1% point to 10.5%.
RoyMorgan state, "Government Confidence Rating dropped by 15.5pts in October to 109.5 to be at its lowest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern came to office four years ago in October 2017".
Labour is continuing to gain a disproportionate share of its support from women with 49% support compared to 28.5% from men. Attracting the women's vote will no doubt continue to occupy the minds of opposition party strategists.
What is clear from the polling trend is support for Labour is sliding away as a groundswell of discontent builds against the government's reform agenda.
No doubt Labour's MPs sitting in marginal electorates or in the lower echelons of the party list will be wondering if Labour has gone too hard, too fast, and too extreme. They must be thinking that it is they who will pay the price.
View RoyMorgan Poll HERE >>>
Frank Newman, is a political commentator, investment analyst, and a former local body councillor.