Tuesday, November 16, 2021

Kate Hawkesby: The polls show people are (slowly) waking up


So, as I said last week with the other two polls, what you look for is a trend. And multiple polls showing the same thing is a trend. 

And the trend’s not good.  

Not surprisingly, with the shambolic vaccine rollout, the cluster that is MIQ, divisive policies and controversial mandates. Three waters, He Pua Pua, a never-ending lockdown for Auckland, businesses going belly up, a token insulting ultra-curated stopover in Auckland and inauthentically calling that “a visit”.  

And zooming in and out by way of private jet when climate change was going to be her ‘nuclear moment’. Hard to fathom that one from the inside of the Airforce jet whizzing back and forward, that’s a lot of carbon miles. 

I said last week this was a ‘let them eat cake’ approach and the clanger here is how disingenuous that is, when this is the Government that promised to govern for everybody.  

Poverty, gang problems, gun violence, inadequate leadership, lack of accountability, flip flopping, protests, these things are all becoming part of this regime’s calling card. And that’s a bad look. So bad that now the polls reflect it.  

Hero to zero is happening at a faster rate than most popular governments, they’re falling out of favour Term 2, most successful governments at least wait to do that until Term 3.  

So, they’re down 2 as a party to 41 percent, Jacinda Ardern’s popularity has dropped 5 to 39 percent. That’s her lowest preferred PM score for two years. Labour’s decline has been consistent across the last five Colmar Brunton polls, each poll since the 2020 election has seen them drop. Ardern claims Labour’s holding up well however, she thinks it’s a strong majority to govern. 

And she’s not wrong, it is a majority. 53 seats for Labour and 12 for the Greens would still be a comfortable majority to govern. But the downward spiral is on. Ardern chalks up the downward trend to ‘having to make tough decisions’. I notice Grant Robertson said it was our fault. "People are feeling anxious." he said, so it's not them it's us? I think we call that gaslighting. 

But where the Government’s dipping, the opposition's not making the gains. National is only up 2 to 28 percent, but as Act’s David Seymour points out, the gap between left and right is steadily closing. With Act steady on 14 and National on 28 percent, it’s still not enough to govern, but the trend is working in their favour.  

Judith Collins, whose approval rating by the way is at a new low, summed the Government’s fortunes up well when she said it would “take a while for people to accept the Government sold them a pup.” 

The trend unfolding now indicates voters are waking up to that fact. 

Kate Hawkesby is a political broadcaster on Newstalk ZB - her articles can be seen HERE.

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