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Thursday, November 18, 2021

Net Zero Watch: COP26 deal falters as China calls on countries to decide their own emissions cuts

 





In this newsletter:

1) COP26 deal falters as China calls on countries to decide their own emissions cuts
The Daily Telegraph, 15 November 2021
 
 
2) Australian PM slaps down Boris Johnson’s claims COP26 was the ‘death-knell’ for coal
The Australian, 15 November 2021

 
3) EU, US block effort for climate disaster funding at COP26
Politico, 14 November 2021 
 
 
4) WSJ: Glasgow’s Climate of Unreality
The Wall Street Journal, 15 November 2021
 

5) Welcome to Net Zero hell: It’s finally getting cold and Europe doesn’t have enough gas
Bloomberg, 12 November 2021

 
6) Welcome to Net Zero hell: UK power prices soar above £2,000 on low winds
Bloomberg, 15 November 2021

 
7) Editorial: Is Britain's Net Zero policy sustainable?
The Daily Telegraph, 15 November 2021
 
 
8) David Rose: The 'useful idiots' who let China off the hook
Daily Mail, 15 November 2021
 
 
9) And finally: COP26 aimed to banish coal. Asia is building hundreds of power plants to burn it
CNBC, 1 November 2021

Full details:

1) COP26 deal falters as China calls on countries to decide their own emissions cuts
The Daily Telegraph, 15 November 2021
 
Beijing was willing to blow the whole deal at the last hour if it did not get a concession on the language.





 









In the end, two years of shuttle diplomacy, painstakingly conducted during a global pandemic, were nearly thrown off at the last hour.

The historic climate deal secured at Cop26 was thrown into “real jeopardy” by a last-minute deal between India and China to object to calls to phase-out coal power and fossil fuel subsidies, Alok Sharma said on Sunday.

The text was not even supposed to be there. The sentence in the original draft deal calling for countries “to accelerate the phasing-out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels” had been added in by UK negotiators who believed it would be swiftly rejected.

Never before had the direct mention of fossil fuels or coal made it into an agreement at the end of the annual climate summit.

But in each subsequent draft, the words “phase-out”, “coal” and “fossil fuels” remained, though the phrasing was gradually softened.

That it survived is a reflection of the changing climate, literally and politically, that this Cop26 was conducted in, as countries start tackling, head-on, the causes of catastrophic global warming.

By the time it came to the final draft, it was clear that a consensus was growing for the words to stay, which the UK could not ignore, despite rising objections from two of the most powerful polluters at the summit.

As a final meeting was meant to get under way to discuss the deal, frantic negotiating “huddles” were continuing around the plenary hall, as delegates ignored the pleas of Mr Sharma, the British Cop president, to take their seats.

Eventually, he adjourned the meeting, and head negotiators from India, China, the EU and US, moved their conversation to a side room, where it became clear that Beijing was willing to blow the whole deal at the last hour if it did not get a concession on the language.

“I did feel at that point the whole thing, two years of work, was in jeopardy,” Mr Sharma said on Sunday.

“My first thought was obviously, that we had really put together something quite historic to support developing countries.”

“And if we didn't get a deal over the line, that would all be lost.”

It soon became clear that the US was willing to support a change to the text, softening the language from a “phase-out” of unabated coal to a “phase-down”, to appease India and China, both major coal economies.

Full story
 
2) Australian PM slaps down Boris Johnson’s claims COP26 was the ‘death-knell’ for coal
The Australian, 15 November 2021

Scott Morrison says Australia’s coal industry will remain strong for decades under climate policies that protect the nation’s economic interests, slapping down Boris Johnson’s claim that the COP26 pact sounded a “death knell” for coal power.

















Facing pressure from Nationals MPs to protect coal exports and moderate Liberal MPs who want a 2035 emissions-reduction target, Mr Morrison said he would not “make rural and regional Australians pay” for the country’s net- zero emissions by 2050 target.

The Prime Minister also refused to commit to a new 2030 emissions-reduction target, despite the Glasgow climate pact urging countries to outline greater ambition before the COP27 summit in Egypt next year.

Speaking in the marginal western Sydney seat of Lindsay on Monday, Mr Morrison said Australians employed by the coal sector would “continue to be working in that industry for decades to come” because the transition to new low-emissions technologies would happen over a long time.

After India and China changed the final COP26 text from “phase out” to “phase down” coal, Mr Morrison said he would not apologise for “Australia standing up for our national interests”.

“Whether they be our security interests or our economic interests, we’re going to do this in a balanced way focusing on the technological advances that we know will actually see us solve this problem,” he said. “We’re not going to tax Australians to do that. We’re not going to legislate them, and regulate them and force them to do things.”

Mr Johnson, a close ally of Mr Morrison, on Monday said the COP26 climate pact was a “game-changing agreement” that sounded the “death knell for coal power”.

The future of coal is “clear”, as the “trajectory for coal power is set” after COP26, according to British High Commissioner to Australia Vicki Treadell.

Adani Australia chief executive Lucas Dow said “coal cannot simply be wished out of the ¬energy mix”.
“Developing nations in our region will require a mix of energy sources and technologies, including coal generation, to meet their economic and social aspirations and challenges,” he said.

The Adani coalmine was a key issue at the 2019 election, with the Coalition’s support for the project credited with holding seats in central Queensland.
 
Full story
 
3) EU, US block effort for climate disaster funding at COP26
Politico, 14 November 2021
 
GLASGOW — The United States and the European Union on Saturday resisted calls from developing countries for the COP26 summit to create a facility providing financial support to victims of climate disasters. 
 
The issue of loss and damage, or the social and economic costs of climate impacts like sea-level rise and extreme weather, was among the debates that pushed the Glasgow conference into overtime and pitted developing countries against wealthy polluters.

Island nations demanded a separate funding facility for loss and damage. They received backing from the G77, a U.N. coalition of 134 developing countries plus China, which put forward a proposal this week.

But in the COP26 plenary on Saturday afternoon, G77 chair Guinea reluctantly accepted the current draft text which does not include separate funding. Antigua and Barbuda, on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States, also conceded there would be no new financial facility in the Glasgow agreement.

The G77 proposal had faced strong opposition from the U.S. and the EU. Rich countries — responsible for the vast majority of carbon dioxide in the planet’s atmosphere — have long resisted steps toward loss and damage financing, fearing it could lead to legal liability for past emissions and vast compensation claims. 

A senior U.S. official said earlier this week that creating a fund for compensating individuals or governments for loss and damage was a red line. U.S. climate envoy John Kerry also said on the eve of the conference that Washington wouldn't support a decision that opens the way for lawsuits.

The EU also pushed back against the G77 proposal to create a new "Glasgow Loss and Damage Facility" to provide developing countries affected by climate disasters with financial support. A senior European negotiator said Saturday that the bloc’s treasuries were opposed to the creation of a new fund. 

Full story
 
4) WSJ: Glasgow’s Climate of Unreality
The Wall Street Journal, 15 November 2021

The latest global climate confab ended on the weekend in Glasgow having produced little of consequence. How could it have done otherwise? The conferees who warn that the Apocalypse is nigh absent draconian energy policies are disconnected from political and economic reality.

The climateers couldn’t agree whether they had failed to forestall climate catastrophe or set the world on a new path to banning fossil fuels. The apocalyptics were gloomy that countries failed to make more firm commitments to reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions, and failed even to agree to phase out coal after a last-minute intervention by India and China. Perhaps those nations noticed that even Europe is having to fall back on more coal power these days amid an energy crisis and rising prices.

U.S. envoy John Kerry was more optimistic, as usual. You have to admire his ability to spin the media that “United States reclaims leadership role,” as the Washington Post headlined it. He cited a statement by the U.S. and China that they will work together to reduce emissions.

Mr. Kerry could hardly admit failure. The international commands from Glasgow are supposed to justify President Biden’s agenda to regulate and tax U.S. oil and gas production out of business, while spending $550 billion in green-energy subsidies.

In the real world, China will continue to build more coal plants, though it said it will begin to reduce emissions before its previous promise of 2030. That’s the same year that Mr. Biden wants the U.S. to have reduced its emissions by half, no matter the cost. The Chinese know they can exploit America’s climate obsessions by making promises they may or may not keep in return for U.S. concessions on economics or national security. They also don’t mind if the U.S. punishes itself with higher energy costs, which will be the main consequence of the Biden climate agenda.

Also in the real world, it isn’t clear that even Western leaders can deliver on their anti-carbon pledges. Inflation caused in part by spiking energy prices is hurting Mr. Biden and the Democrats, who have been left begging the Saudis and Russians to drill more oil so prices fall. You can hear them laughing in the Kremlin.

“If [Mr. Biden] were asking them to boost their production over five years, I’d quit,” Mr. Kerry told reporters, by way of trying to square this circle. “But he’s not. He’s asking them to boost production in this immediate moment.” Lord, make us green, but not yet.

The climate elites want the public to believe that only by turning over more of the economy to their political control can we avoid climate disaster. And by the way, the public will pay for this in higher energy costs and shortages as we leap toward the green Neverland. Whenever Western voters are honestly presented with this choice, they say no.

That’s why Western climateers want to use the quiet coercion of financial regulations to allocate capital and squeeze fossil-fuel producers. This will do some harm, but it won’t matter at all to global temperatures.

For that matter, neither will anything else that happened in Glasgow. What will matter is research in new technology, adaptation to cope with the uncertain effects of a changing climate, and whether or not the world grows wealthier to better cope with that uncertain future.
 
5) Welcome to Net Zero hell: It’s finally getting cold and Europe doesn’t have enough gas
Bloomberg, 12 November 2021

Europe is set to get its first cold spell of the winter season, putting the continent’s already scant energy supplies under pressure.
 
Temperatures are set to drop starting next week, with parts of Italy forecast to experience weather as much as 2 degrees Celsius below normal. Southern France, Spain and Germany are also forecast to be colder-than-usual, according to The Weather Company. Centrica Plc, the U.K.’s top energy supplier, warned its 9 million customers to prepare for an icy blast that could last as long as six weeks.

The region will be particularly sensitive to cold snaps in the coming months, with gas prices up for a second week after surging to records in October. Extra supplies promised by Russia have so far been negligible and Norwegian flows have been reduced because of heavy maintenance. 

“This is going to test the energy supplies across Europe,” said Tyler Roys, lead European forecaster at AccuWeather Inc. 
 
A high pressure system could also bring more northerly and colder air flows over central and southern Europe by the end of the month, said Carlo Cafaro, a senior research analyst and meteorologist at Marex. 

Benchmark gas prices are still almost four times higher than normal for this time of year sending electricity and European emission permits surging. Dutch month-ahead gas futures, the benchmark for Europe, rose 1.4% this week after climbing 14% last week. 

The cooler temperatures in the south will coincide with stormy weather over the Mediterranean with threats of flooding and mudslides, Roys said. This will bring big swings in wind generation, likely to drive price volatility even higher. 

November temperatures on the whole could end up being close to normal, but may still be cooler than the above-average levels for the past four years, according to Accuweather data. That could also impact gas storage levels as companies withdraw supplies to meet higher demand, already roaring back as economies recover from the pandemic. 
 
The number of heating degree days, a measure of demand, will be higher than the 10-year normal during the next two weeks, according to Maxar. But there is still some uncertainty between models for northwest Europe, and forecasts haven’t been very accurate lately, said Steven Silver, a meteorologist at Maxar. 

The arrival of cold weather in Europe would follow freezing temperatures and snow in China, the world’s biggest energy consumer. Higher heating demand could intensify the already fierce battle for liquefied natural gas cargoes, with prices for flexible U.S. LNG still more attractive in Asia.

The development of the La Nina weather pattern in the Pacific basin means possible colder-than-average temperatures in Northeast Asia during the winter months, but better availability at nuclear reactors in Japan and South Korea, as well as higher domestic output in China, could keep any increases in LNG imports in check, Energy Aspects Ltd. said last week.
 
6) Welcome to Net Zero hell: UK power prices soar above £2,000 on low winds
Bloomberg, 15 November 2021

Power prices in the U.K. soared to the second highest level on record on Monday as low wind levels exposed the market to a supply crunch. 

Prices for between 5 p.m. and 6 p.m. rose to 2,000.01 pounds per megawatt-hour in the N2EX day-ahead auction for Monday, with wind power generation expected to meet less than a 10th of the demand for that hour. U.K. coal plants were operating at 1.5GW of capacity on Monday morning.

U.K. gas prices are more than three times as high as at the start of the year, as imports from Russia to Europe slowed, and periods with low wind will increase dependence on very expensive fossil fuel power. Hourly power price has only been higher on Sept. 15 when it rose above 2,500 pounds, and average price for Monday was the highest since Sept. 14.

“The power spot prices soared near 230€/MWh in northwestern Europe for today, lifted by forecasts of higher demand and weak wind and solar generation,” according to a note from EnergyScan.
 
A strained power situation in the rest of Europe is also limiting export capacity to the U.K. French day-ahead power prices rose to the highest level in a week at 228.06 euros per megawatt-hour as a strike lowered output on Monday, while prices in Germany rose to the highest level since Oct. 7. 
 
7) Editorial: Is Britain's Net Zero policy sustainable?
The Daily Telegraph, 15 November 2021
 
The disappointment of Alok Sharma over the outcome of the climate change summit in Glasgow that he chaired exemplified the political difficulties it has stored up for the Government.

The final communiqué removed a commitment to eradicate fossil fuels from the world’s energy mix. An original proposal to “phase out” coal was replaced with the less dramatic pledge to “phase down”. This amendment was made at the insistence of India backed by China, the world’s two largest coal users.

Mr Sharma’s subsequent apology for the way the summit had ended was aimed at the delegates who had spent the past fortnight seeking to find a way to keep the world’s temperature rise no higher than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Leaving aside whether any communiqué could so precisely calibrate the temperature of the planet, this deal has potentially serious domestic political implications.

The UK has committed unilaterally to a zero carbon future by 2050 at the latest that will have a major impact on the lives of everyone. Given the scientific consensus that action to reduce CO2 is urgent and existential, people in this country are willing to play their part. But when they see the biggest polluters are not prepared to do the same, or not to the same extent, they will start to question the Government’s approach more critically.

Mr Sharma denied the Glasgow pact represented failure and Boris Johnson called it a “big step forward”. A path to limiting the predicted warming to 1.5C is still discernible, they believe, though that will require countries to come forward with binding action plans and everyone understands the resistance of countries like India which consider it unjust that they should miss out on the advantages of cheap fossil fuel-based energy that richer countries enjoyed.

But people in the UK will ask why they should give up coal, gas and oil when this country’s contribution makes up only one per cent of the world’s CO2 emissions. The argument that we should set an example only holds if others follow it.

The big domestic quandary arising from Glasgow is whether Britain’s expedited decarbonisation policy makes any political or economic sense when those responsible for the majority of emissions reject binding caps. As we move forward towards unfeasibly early target dates of 2030 and 2035 for beginning to phase out gas and petrol (coal has almost gone already) these questions will become ever more urgent.
 
8) David Rose: The 'useful idiots' who let China off the hook
Daily Mail, 15 November 2021
  
Evidence unearthed by this newspaper shows Western environmentalists are enmeshed with bodies subordinate to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and staffed by figures from its most ruthless departments.

Last Thursday, China revealed its coal miners had achieved an all-time record by digging up 12.05million tonnes in one day.

Just two days later the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases reduced Cop26 minister Alok Sharma almost to tears by refusing to 'phase out' coal in the final summit agreement.

Judged by the benchmarks set by Mr Sharma and Boris Johnson before the conference, Cop had failed – thanks to China.

Yesterday, green campaigners hailed some modest successes, such as pledges to reduce methane. But back in the real world, China – whose president, Xi Jinping, did not even turn up – is still building coal-fired power stations at a rate of knots and the 'agreement' it reached with America to 'co-operate' on global warming lacked any substance.

Yet the campaigners in Glasgow barely mentioned – let alone criticised – China. A spokesman for Insulate Britain told me: 'We mustn't use China as a scapegoat.'

Some campaigners even heap praise on China. So why is there such an apparent lack of concern? One answer lies in a book called Hidden Hand: Exposing How The Chinese Communist Party Is Reshaping The World, by Clive Hamilton and Mareike Ohlberg. Serialised in the Mail last year, it argues that China has extended its influence over certain institutions in Britain and other democracies in order to blind them to Beijing's drive for supremacy.

China, the book says, seduces politicians, business people, academics and campaigners into supporting its aims. It regards them as 'useful idiots' – unwitting instruments of its goal of becoming the world's only superpower.

Evidence unearthed by this newspaper, working with researchers fluent in Mandarin, shows Western environmentalists have indeed become a target. Documents suggest they are enmeshed with bodies subordinate to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and staffed by figures from its most ruthless departments.

They include Xie Zhenhua, China's chief climate envoy. Until 2012, he was a member of the central commission for discipline inspection, which enforces state orthodoxy. According to Human Rights Watch, it has been responsible for illegal detention, torture and forced confessions.

'I'm dismayed that some leading Western environmentalists are talking up the CCP as the saviour of the world,' Hamilton says. Take, for example, Professor Lord Stern, chairman of the Grantham research institute on climate change at the London School of Economics, which advises government.

Having taught in China since 1998, in 2009 he told a Chinese magazine he had 'close contacts' with CCP officials. In 2014, he wrote a paper for the World Economic Forum claiming China was 'emerging as a global leader in climate policy'. In 2016 he claimed China's emissions 'may already have peaked'. They hadn't. The following year, he insisted there was 'compelling evidence' China's coal use had also peaked.

Stern even praised president Xi's 'personal commitment to driving climate action', concluding: 'The world is looking for a climate champion. In China, it has one.' But in March he sounded less optimistic, saying it is 'crucial' China stops building new coal-fired power plants and stops increasing its emissions by 2025.

Nevertheless, Bob Ward, Stern's spokesman, told me China was taking 'significant action' and the rate of increase in its emissions had slowed enormously. He said China was 'keen to learn from the UK's example of world-leading action on climate change'.

Stern attended September's annual conference in Beijing of the China council for international co-operation on environment and development – where he reportedly lauded Xi's vision of an 'ecological society'. Also present were a veritable who's who of British, European and US environmental crusaders, including representatives of the London-based legal charity ClientEarth, and the WWF.

Another was Kate Hampton, chief executive of the Children's Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF), which donates tens of millions a year to green groups such as Extinction Rebellion. She told the conference she 'supported Chinese leadership on setting the global path'. In May, she addressed a Beijing investment forum, praising China's 'determination to phase out coal' – the phrase vetoed by Xie at Cop26.

What's more, Hampton is co-chair of the board of the Belt and Road International Green Development Coalition, run by China's environment ministry. It is an offshoot of Xie's Belt and Road Initiative which Chinese leaders have said is the means by which China will supplant America. The CIFF, the WWF and ClientEarth run branches in China. Under Chinese law, any foreign organisation must submit to 'close supervision' by the ministry of public security, in charge of crushing dissent. Any group 'harming the national interest' risks having its staff jailed.

Canadian Patricia Adams, director of the think-tank Probe International, knows this threat is not theoretical. In 2015, two Chinese experts she was working with were jailed for 'picking quarrels and provoking troubles', the charge used against dissidents.

Meanwhile, documents suggest president Xi's plan to create an 'ecological civilisation' is a means of furthering China's dominance.

At a meeting of the foreign environmental co-operation centre, Chen Xiangyang, the director of another arm of China's spy agency, said ecological civilisation was part of 'China's plans for a shared future for mankind'.

But green groups insist 'engaging' with China helps the planet.

A CIFF spokesman said: 'China is the world's largest emitter and its transition to a net-zero economy is of utmost importance. CIFF's work in China aims to accelerate this transition.'

ClientEarth said: 'We are focused on reducing pollution and bringing down emissions both in China and from its overseas investments.' The WWF said 'all countries need to contribute towards reducing emissions' but China 'can and should do more'.

Hamilton remains unimpressed. He told me: 'China's government is cynical and ruthless. Yet Western environmentalists wander around telling us China is building a harmonious and beautiful world for all. Seriously?'
 
9) And finally: COP26 aimed to banish coal. Asia is building hundreds of power plants to burn it
CNBC, 1 November 2021
 
Many industrialized countries have been shutting down coal plants for years to reduce emissions. The United States alone has retired 301 plants since 2000.
 
But in Asia, home to 60% of the world’s population and about half of global manufacturing, coal’s use is growing rather than shrinking as rapidly developing countries seek to meet booming demand for power.
 
Carbon dioxide emissions from the new plants alone will be close to 28 billion tonnes over their 30-year lifespans, according to U.S. nonprofit Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

On the coastline near India’s southern tip, workers toil on a pier carrying a conveyor belt that cuts a mile into the Indian Ocean where the azure waters are deep enough for ships to berth and unload huge cargoes of coal.
 
The belt will carry millions of tonnes of coal each year to a giant power plant several kilometers inland that will burn the fuel for at least 30 years to generate power for the more than 70 million people that live in India’s Tamil Nadu state.

The Udangudi plant is one of nearly 200 coal-fired power stations under construction in Asia, including 95 in China, 28 in India and 23 in Indonesia, according to data from U.S. nonprofit Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

This new fleet will produce planet-warming emissions for decades and is a measure of the challenge world leaders face when they meet for climate talks in Glasgow, where they hope to sound the death knell for coal as a source of power.
 
Coal use is one of the many issues dividing industrialized and developing countries as they seek to tackle climate change.

Many industrialized countries have been shutting down coal plants for years to reduce emissions. The United States alone has retired 301 plants since 2000.

But in Asia, home to 60% of the world’s population and about half of global manufacturing, coal’s use is growing rather than shrinking as rapidly developing countries seek to meet booming demand for power.

More than 90% of the 195 coal plants being built around the world are in Asia, according to data from GEM.
 
Full story

The London-based Net Zero Watch is a campaign group set up to highlight and discuss the serious implications of expensive and poorly considered climate change policies. The Net Zero Watch newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.netzerowatch.com.

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