Answer: possibly. Possibly not.
What numbers were they looking at?
It's important to point out this is not retrospective. This is not stuff that has happened, therefore cannot be argued with.
This is a projection and the projection comes from Treasury. There are some numbers from their projections to ponder, such as we are not returning to surplus until 2026/27. That is now years after they first suggested they would.
That's strike one.
Strike two is tax revenue is dropping in terms of what they thought it would be.
Strike three is expenses are rising from what they originally thought.
Strike four is debt per GDP is worse.
Strike five is net Government bond issue, which is debt, to 2027 is worse.
Strike six is inflation is higher for longer.
So where is all this good news? Well, they see a little bit more growth.
Unemployment, although going up, isn't going to go up as much as they thought.
And that is about it.
In totality I am not seeing a net score card that is demonstrably better than they thought. When you look at the numbers, at the debt, the spend and the current account deficit, none of it is good at all.
The tired, old line the Government uses about us being not as badly off as others is technically true.
But given there are almost 200 countries in the world, it's not hard to line yourself up against a bunch of economic numpties. It is not aspirational in any way, shape or form to find a collection of failures and pump your tyres up by standing next to them.
The simple reality is there is no hiding from the real danger this economy is in. It is one of the few, among our trading partners with Germany being the other, that has reached recession.
We have spent more, we have borrowed more and we are still nowhere near close to even looking like achieving an annualised surplus.
Our saving grace might, might, be migration and that might lead to a boost in housing and alleviate the labour shortage.
But I think what has happened here is we are so punch drunk, so beaten down by the misery of the economic mess that anything, no matter how meagre, is grasped as some sort of shiny nugget in a desert of economic sand.
When you see where we were, i.e the rock star economy a handful of years ago, and where we are now there is little, if anything, to be proud of.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
That's strike one.
Strike two is tax revenue is dropping in terms of what they thought it would be.
Strike three is expenses are rising from what they originally thought.
Strike four is debt per GDP is worse.
Strike five is net Government bond issue, which is debt, to 2027 is worse.
Strike six is inflation is higher for longer.
So where is all this good news? Well, they see a little bit more growth.
Unemployment, although going up, isn't going to go up as much as they thought.
And that is about it.
In totality I am not seeing a net score card that is demonstrably better than they thought. When you look at the numbers, at the debt, the spend and the current account deficit, none of it is good at all.
The tired, old line the Government uses about us being not as badly off as others is technically true.
But given there are almost 200 countries in the world, it's not hard to line yourself up against a bunch of economic numpties. It is not aspirational in any way, shape or form to find a collection of failures and pump your tyres up by standing next to them.
The simple reality is there is no hiding from the real danger this economy is in. It is one of the few, among our trading partners with Germany being the other, that has reached recession.
We have spent more, we have borrowed more and we are still nowhere near close to even looking like achieving an annualised surplus.
Our saving grace might, might, be migration and that might lead to a boost in housing and alleviate the labour shortage.
But I think what has happened here is we are so punch drunk, so beaten down by the misery of the economic mess that anything, no matter how meagre, is grasped as some sort of shiny nugget in a desert of economic sand.
When you see where we were, i.e the rock star economy a handful of years ago, and where we are now there is little, if anything, to be proud of.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
3 comments:
But Mike, we still have co-governance to look forward to. Willie J has assured us we have nothing to fear and, with those added financial skills intermingled with matauranga at the table, what do we need to worry about?
Allowing Māori to get their grubby hands on fresh water must never happen. Tuku Morgan (Tainui) is confident Māori will be sitting around the table. Has National already agreed to this? Is that why Luxon doesn’t talk about Co- governance? National should not forget Māori we’re given the bed of Lake Taupo - they were NOT given the water in the Lake!
Let's not forget that this is after Grant Robertson fiddled the books a couple of years ago, knocking the super fund off govt. debt to halve the debt/GDP figure. He clearly regards the super fund as his to dip into if he finally ran out of other people's money to spend.
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