We can say that because, if for no other reason, we have yet another poll that asks the questions that give it all away - is the country going in the right direction? Is the country on the right track?
The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll says 'no'. Not only does it say no, it tells us 63% think it's going the wrong way. 21% think it's OK and 15% aren't convinced either way.
Here is the critical point; even if you allow for plus or minus, even if you asked the questions a different way, even if you did the poll over again, the number for the wrong way is so large it can't be wrong.
It might be 61% or 59% or 66% or 68% but it is indisputably the majority of the country thinking the same thing.
We are not heading the right way.
There is only one group responsible for that sentiment and the people who delivered that view never survive a vote.
Now, you can argue, and we will over the next several weeks, where exactly that desire to change Government goes and how it plays out. But what we can't argue with is the vote away from the status quo is so large that a change of Government is now a forgone conclusion.
People don't sit around miserable, angry, angsty and upset and then, when asked, want more of it.
In a way, it’s the ultimate humiliation for a Government. It is such a broad-based rebuttal and rejection of a programme, or ideology, that there is no hiding from it.
You can argue about personality, or specific policy, or a mistake, or a back down, or some nuance around minor party support or policy. But when the majority, and a large majority, collectively speak so decisively as one voice, you are toast.
Making it worse, unlike the other polls that will bob around a bit and each time they do open up a whole new line of debate and speculation, this particular question has provided pretty much the same answer all year.
The tipping point came many months ago when the majority decided we are on the wrong path. Once it tipped, once it got above 50%, it showed no signs of changing. In fact, it's gotten worse.
If you want to bet the house on the outcome of October 14, this is the poll that will guide you better than any other.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
Here is the critical point; even if you allow for plus or minus, even if you asked the questions a different way, even if you did the poll over again, the number for the wrong way is so large it can't be wrong.
It might be 61% or 59% or 66% or 68% but it is indisputably the majority of the country thinking the same thing.
We are not heading the right way.
There is only one group responsible for that sentiment and the people who delivered that view never survive a vote.
Now, you can argue, and we will over the next several weeks, where exactly that desire to change Government goes and how it plays out. But what we can't argue with is the vote away from the status quo is so large that a change of Government is now a forgone conclusion.
People don't sit around miserable, angry, angsty and upset and then, when asked, want more of it.
In a way, it’s the ultimate humiliation for a Government. It is such a broad-based rebuttal and rejection of a programme, or ideology, that there is no hiding from it.
You can argue about personality, or specific policy, or a mistake, or a back down, or some nuance around minor party support or policy. But when the majority, and a large majority, collectively speak so decisively as one voice, you are toast.
Making it worse, unlike the other polls that will bob around a bit and each time they do open up a whole new line of debate and speculation, this particular question has provided pretty much the same answer all year.
The tipping point came many months ago when the majority decided we are on the wrong path. Once it tipped, once it got above 50%, it showed no signs of changing. In fact, it's gotten worse.
If you want to bet the house on the outcome of October 14, this is the poll that will guide you better than any other.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
1 comment:
I wonder what the reponse would be if asked "Is our policy of maori favouristism/separatism on the right path?"
I suspect the polls, as with the elction, largely reflect that citizens can exercise their view on matters maori confidentially and hence evade the terrors of cancellation
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