Well, if you go on polling alone, it's the new Government of National and Act.
But if you believe that this campaign counts, if you believe that these events and stunts and announcements count for a lot, then there is still much to play for.
For the record, I will repeat, I think the whole thing is a foregone conclusion.
This, more than most elections, has already been decided on the Government's record. It's not about policy from the opposition, because most people already broadly know that the opposition is offering a change from the status quo.
It's what happened when we tossed David Lange's Labour out.
What happened when we tossed Robert Muldoon? What happened when we tossed Helen Clark out?
For a variety of reasons, in Muldoon and Clark's case, we were over the agenda. In Lange's case, we were over the party imploding and the chaos.
That’s why they say Government's lose elections and oppositions don’t win them.
If you're interested in policy there have been some good ones. Act's law and order policy is full of common sense and scratches an itch felt by many a New Zealander fed up with crime.
You can't argue with more doctors, except the fact Labour took six years to do it, which in and of itself is an example of why they are losing.
National's literacy policy last Friday makes sense and many a parent will welcome a crack at tangible improvement in the classroom.
But the downside of campaigns is the down in the weeds obsession you tend to get when the media put a lot of resource into a single event. When you're looking to eke every last dollar out of having journalists wander aimlessly around the country, you tend to end up with the nonsense we got on National's tax policy.
Some economists thought there was a hole. My take - so what? There are other economists who don't think there is a hole.
The Treasury PREFU said we aren't going into recession and the media swallowed that hook, line and sinker. Yet Bryce Wilkinson of the NZ Initiative wrote yesterday and said those numbers are bogus. Where was the media's obsession around that?
Duelling economists is the sort of side show a campaign brings.
But in summation, you can see poor, old Hipkins looking more and more deflated and Luxon looking more and more bullish. Seymour overplayed his hand a bit on the confidence thing, James Shaw called an Act MP a "clown show", Winston Peters refuted the polls, again, and I think one of the Maori leaders went surfing.
Next week we have the debates. I don’t put the weight some do on them. They're important, yes. But they aren't a deal breaker.
As I say, my gut says this thing is over, the script was written over the past 24 months.
We are, to a degree, going through the motions.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
This, more than most elections, has already been decided on the Government's record. It's not about policy from the opposition, because most people already broadly know that the opposition is offering a change from the status quo.
It's what happened when we tossed David Lange's Labour out.
What happened when we tossed Robert Muldoon? What happened when we tossed Helen Clark out?
For a variety of reasons, in Muldoon and Clark's case, we were over the agenda. In Lange's case, we were over the party imploding and the chaos.
That’s why they say Government's lose elections and oppositions don’t win them.
If you're interested in policy there have been some good ones. Act's law and order policy is full of common sense and scratches an itch felt by many a New Zealander fed up with crime.
You can't argue with more doctors, except the fact Labour took six years to do it, which in and of itself is an example of why they are losing.
National's literacy policy last Friday makes sense and many a parent will welcome a crack at tangible improvement in the classroom.
But the downside of campaigns is the down in the weeds obsession you tend to get when the media put a lot of resource into a single event. When you're looking to eke every last dollar out of having journalists wander aimlessly around the country, you tend to end up with the nonsense we got on National's tax policy.
Some economists thought there was a hole. My take - so what? There are other economists who don't think there is a hole.
The Treasury PREFU said we aren't going into recession and the media swallowed that hook, line and sinker. Yet Bryce Wilkinson of the NZ Initiative wrote yesterday and said those numbers are bogus. Where was the media's obsession around that?
Duelling economists is the sort of side show a campaign brings.
But in summation, you can see poor, old Hipkins looking more and more deflated and Luxon looking more and more bullish. Seymour overplayed his hand a bit on the confidence thing, James Shaw called an Act MP a "clown show", Winston Peters refuted the polls, again, and I think one of the Maori leaders went surfing.
Next week we have the debates. I don’t put the weight some do on them. They're important, yes. But they aren't a deal breaker.
As I say, my gut says this thing is over, the script was written over the past 24 months.
We are, to a degree, going through the motions.
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
3 comments:
Many voters are hoping some party will do something concrete about the accelerating Maorification and co-governance in order to salvage NZ's democracy.
This is seldom mentioned...... except by NZ First.
The economy is in dire straits - but can be repaired. Democracy is on the edge......
Indeed annon.
This was sent from sons last highschool yesterday to all the parents. He's moved now as the education standards there are incredibly poor. He was taught the wind is caused by Maori gods fighting etc..
The tacit racism in presuming Maori are better at caring for everyone than other cultures are, is quite disgusting. And lacking in evidence.
"We are very proud to celebrate Te Wiki o Te Reo Māori at CBHS this week. The leadership of Monitor ********* (Ngāti Porou) has been inspirational. The leadership of our students is something we should all be very proud of.
I hope this week that we can think about moving beyond language and think about incorporating a Māori world view. Tikanga and te ao Māori contrast with Western thought through an emphasis on the collective, on whanaungatanga and on placing positive relationships and care at the centre of everything. This is good for all of us.
We should think deeply about how we use Te Reo and it should not be as window dressing. Lawyer Kingi Snelgar provides the example of the appropriation of Māori names for prisons as unconvincing and harmful gestures towards Te Reo Māori.
“It’s not okay to name a prison Korowai Manaaki. It grates with me that a place like this is named Korowai Manaaki. When I ask my clients what “korowai” means to them, they say “that’s lock-up”. To them, it will always be associated with prison. Korowai manaaki, to me, means a cloak or a place for shelter and care and nurturing. It’s an important saying in te ao Māori. My korowai manaaki is my whānau, my whakapapa, my awa, and maunga.
The reality is that we are living in the rohe of Ngāi Tahu and Ngāi Tahu values matter and will enhance our lives and relationships.
Our student leaders are moving us from tokenism to transformation."
A teacher acquaintance told me the kids at her primary school ONLY sing songs in Maori. Not even one in English.
There is an agenda and it's a Trojan horse. Propaganda of the Marxists.
MC
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