The academics labelled 6 statements by Luxon as either "mostly untrue" or "false" compared to 0 by Hipkins. The "mostly untrue" statement they refer to is as follows:
• Foreign home buyers tax would bring in $750 million (Luxon) - in reality, it is estimated to be about $210 million.
I disagree with the academics understanding of "reality" - the reality they refer to is a non peer-reviewed, non published opinion by a bunch of three folks who asserted the number was more like $210 million - one of authors doesn't have an economics degree and another has been retired for seven years. How on earth can one label National's figures as "mostly untrue" when none of us has much idea where the truth lies on this matter, since it is very difficult to estimate and there is huge margin of error in any measurement?
Of the 5 "false" statements they list, one is about economics, my subject:
• No fruit and veg GST savings will be passed on to customers (Luxon) - Grocery Commissioner will monitor pricing to prevent this.
However the academics are themselves wrong - since the Grocery Commissioner's legal powers to enforce passing on the GST cut only apply when anti-competitive behavior is being practiced. If the elasticity of demand of fruit & veges is very high (that is, even a tiny drop in prices would lead to a large increase in demand) then barely any of the GST cut would be passed on to customers. Hence it is legitimate for Luxon to hold that view, unless the academics can produce evidence of their own elasticity-of-demand estimates across a range of such products that support their view (which they haven't done).
I suggest TVNZ be more careful when it "fact checks" our party Leaders and labels things as "mostly untrue" or "false". The only patently false statement I have heard these past days was the PM stating that the whole 100% tax cut on fruit and veges would be passed onto consumers, because he had appointed a "grocery commissioner". What a porker.
Sources:
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/20/fact-check-leaders-claims-in-the-first-debate-put-to-the-test/
• Foreign home buyers tax would bring in $750 million (Luxon) - in reality, it is estimated to be about $210 million.
I disagree with the academics understanding of "reality" - the reality they refer to is a non peer-reviewed, non published opinion by a bunch of three folks who asserted the number was more like $210 million - one of authors doesn't have an economics degree and another has been retired for seven years. How on earth can one label National's figures as "mostly untrue" when none of us has much idea where the truth lies on this matter, since it is very difficult to estimate and there is huge margin of error in any measurement?
Of the 5 "false" statements they list, one is about economics, my subject:
• No fruit and veg GST savings will be passed on to customers (Luxon) - Grocery Commissioner will monitor pricing to prevent this.
However the academics are themselves wrong - since the Grocery Commissioner's legal powers to enforce passing on the GST cut only apply when anti-competitive behavior is being practiced. If the elasticity of demand of fruit & veges is very high (that is, even a tiny drop in prices would lead to a large increase in demand) then barely any of the GST cut would be passed on to customers. Hence it is legitimate for Luxon to hold that view, unless the academics can produce evidence of their own elasticity-of-demand estimates across a range of such products that support their view (which they haven't done).
I suggest TVNZ be more careful when it "fact checks" our party Leaders and labels things as "mostly untrue" or "false". The only patently false statement I have heard these past days was the PM stating that the whole 100% tax cut on fruit and veges would be passed onto consumers, because he had appointed a "grocery commissioner". What a porker.
Sources:
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/20/fact-check-leaders-claims-in-the-first-debate-put-to-the-test/
Professor Robert MacCulloch holds the Matthew S. Abel Chair of Macroeconomics at Auckland University. He has previously worked at the Reserve Bank, Oxford University, and the London School of Economics. He runs the blog Down to Earth Kiwi - where this article was sourced.
5 comments:
What did you expect.
TVNZ need a bit of cash to keep going so they are acting on 'behalf' of Labour and though being subtle by outsourcing their fact checkers they are in fact producing dis-information in an attempt to embolden Hipkins at Luxons expense.
Did they fact check Hipkins statement regarding ho he removed fizzy drinks from schools? (Newshub did (surprise, surprise) and he had to come clean only after they put it to him).
TVNZ also used 2 washed up ex politicians for the discussions afterwards. Tau Henare and David Cunliffe - really? They really have lost the plot and the sooner they have to survive on their own and not be propped up by taxpayers money the better.
Not only TVNZ!! Who runs RadioNZ(now known as RNZ??)Talk about blatant anti-National. Christopher hasn't a chance against these walls of indifference dished up by well-trained(in rudeness) so called Morning report reporters -they purposefully cut him off at every turn. A bit of anti Bias might be a good thing these day, !!!!
Where's Sanjana Hattotuwa when you need him? Oh, that's right, it's only the centre-right that specialise in disinformation.
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