Friday, December 22, 2023

Viv Forbes: When the Ice Returns

A long time ago
              the universe was made of ice.

Then one day the ice began to melt,
              and a mist rose into the sky.

Out of the mist came a giant made of frost,
              and the earth and heavens were made from his body.

That is how the world began,
              and that is how the world will end.

Not by fire
              but by Ice.

- an Ancient Scandinavian Legend, quoted by Robert W Felix in his great book: “NOT BY FIRE BUT BY ICE”.

Earth is living in the latter days of the Holocene Warm Era. This is the latest short, fertile, warm interlude within the long, barren, Pleistocene Ice Age.

From: John Kehr 2011 “The Inconvenient Skeptic”, p42. Temperature Reconstruction using deep sea sediment cores. After Raymo, 2005.

We are at the top on the RHS of that cycle. Does that look like a bottom, or a top?

Despite what the climate-scare-media tell us, the big danger facing life on Earth is not global warming - it is a return of the deathly Pleistocene ice sheets which once covered the great grain belts of Eurasia and North America. Such global cooling will also trigger plant starvation as more carbon dioxide plant food is dissolved from the atmosphere into the cooling oceans.

We have abundant evidence that alarmist computer modellers have no ability to forecast climate. Meteorologists are gaining the ability to forecast weather up to a week ahead and the trends in ocean temperatures can help forecast whether we have El Nino or La Nina conditions for the next year. But for weather or climate forecasts beyond one year we must look to other scientific disciplines – geology, archaeology, physics and astronomy.

Geological evidence comes from ice cores, deep drilling, stratigraphic mappings and clues exposed in mines and quarries. These records show clearly that with no help from human activities, Earth has suffered recurring periods of volcanism, tidal waves, floods, droughts, asteroid strikes, planetary disruptions, magnetic reversals, ice ages and the extinction of many species. Archaeology and studies of tree rings have also revealed more recent evidence of disruptive natural climate changes.

The global warmth we enjoy today can only come from two sources - the sun or the Earth’s molten core.

The major and most reliable source of global warming is that big nuclear power plant in the sky. Our sun directs a continual stream of radiant energy towards Earth. This solar energy melts ice and evaporates water from oceans, seas and lakes. This feeds rain and snow, provides energy for plant life and generates the atmospheric convection that powers trade winds, storms, tornados and cyclones.

Energy also reaches the surface and the oceans from the molten core of the Earth via surface and sub-surface volcanic activity. Many volcanoes on land are generally quiet now but the geological evidence shows that there are periods of massive and destructive volcanic activity often coincident with species extinction and the onset of new episodes of life.

Our scary computerised forecasts of dangerous global warming are based solely on an absolutely trivial factor – the extent to which human production of carbon dioxide and methane may affect global weather by slowing down the transmission of solar energy through the atmosphere. They also ignore the fact that CO2 feeds all plant life (which feeds all animal life) and dismiss the fact that current levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are dangerously low.

Almost every day now, the alarmist media tries to concoct a disaster story from the changing weather.

Weather is always changing - the only time Earth has had a “stable” climate is during the long deathly ice ages.

A diligent lone mathematician/astronomer, Milutin Milankovitch (without giant computers or world conferences) calculated the likely cycles of global temperatures by calculating the varying solar energy received by the major northern hemisphere land masses. His calculations have proved better than anything the IPCC can produce. The Milankovitch cycles are telling us than the next climate cycle will be a cold one.

This is supported by three pieces of evidence.

Firstly, glaciers are returning. When geologists investigated the age of most current glaciers they found they were surprisingly young, and rather than declining, many are growing.

Glaciers known to be advancing include the Vernagtferner glacier in the Alps, the Perito Moreno glacier, the Viedma glacier, the Piedras Blancas Glacier and the Gorra Blanca Glacier in Patagonia; the Tsaa glacier and the Hubbard Glacier in Alaska; the Jakobshavn Glacier; the Hofsjökull, Langjökull, Mýrdalsjökull, and Vatnajökull glaciers in Greenland.

It was reported in 2017 that at least 58 glaciers in New Zealand advanced between 1983 and 2008 with the Franz Josef Glacier advancing nearly continuously during this time and actually regaining almost half of the total length it had lost in the twentieth century.

The Fox glacier in New Zealand is also advancing as is the Nisqually Glacier in North America.

A significant proportion of Himalayan glaciers are also advancing, contrary to the IPCC claiming in a 2007 report that Himalayan glaciers were all retreating and could vanish by 2035.

Secondly, the Greenland Ice Core Project has been used to reconstruct climate for the last 10,000 years. This showed that temperature there has fallen over the last 6000 years. It also showed that global temperature drives atmospheric CO2 levels, not the other way around.

Thirdly, there is the Medieval Warm Period when historians and climatologists can deduce that most areas of the world were warmer than they are now. Food production and population grew and art and culture were supported.

This benign productive era was followed by the Little Ice Age which lasted from about 1300AD almost to the beginning of the 20th Century. The period from 1550AD to 1700AD was a frigid time and famine and disease stalked the world. Arctic sea ice expanded, rivers and lakes froze, the tree line fell, cold gales wracked Europe (one destroyed the Spanish Armada), crops failed and the population fell in northern areas like Norway and Scotland. The population of Greenland perished and the capitals of both Scotland and Norway moved south.
(To read a short history of this terrible time get the paper by Thomas Gale Moore below – it will make you appreciate the warmth.)

Today’s modern warm era started about 2000 AD but it will probably prove to be just another short warm reprieve.

As the warmth fades and the ice returns, the threatened generations will gaze in wonder at the snow-covered solar panels and blizzard-damaged wind turbines and power lines that this generation littered over the landscape at such great cost. Future wars will be fought for access to oil, coal, gas and nuclear energy, and herds of cattle, sheep, goats and reindeer will be valued and protected. Australians will also discover why the Snowy Mountains got that name.

Only two conditions are needed for a sudden return of the ice – increased volcanic heat under the oceans and cold cloudy skies. Evaporation from heated oceans will provide the moisture and the cold skies will cause the precipitation of snow and ice on land.

Ice ages can start frighteningly fast and appear to be triggered by magnetic pole reversals which trigger massive volcanism especially in the oceans along the mid-ocean trenches. This under-sea heating drives evaporation from the oceans, increasing cloud cover and reducing surface temperatures.

Once the winter snow is not all melted by the heat from the next summer, the ice age tipping point is reached. The extra snow will reflect more solar energy so that ice sheets grow and sea levels fall. Coral reefs will be left stranded and island nations will expand as sea water is locked up in ice sheets.

Carbon dioxide plays almost no part in this drama except with plant life. When the seas warm up, the dissolved CO2 is driven into the atmosphere and plant life flourishes. But when the oceans cool down, carbon dioxide is re-dissolved and plants suffer. (Only fools like Queensland mining company Glencore would try to win green points by promising to bury the gas of life by forcing it into underground aquifers.)

So let us be relieved from the daily dirge about imagined global warming disasters and plan what we need to do to ensure reliable energy and food supplies as the next ice age approaches.

Further Reading:

“The Inconvenient Skeptic” by John Kehr 2011

The Comprehensive Guide to Earth’s Climate
Full of facts and good reasoning.

“Global Warming - a boon to humans and other animals" by Thomas Gale Moore 1995 Hoover Institution, Stanford University
A great source on Holocene climate history.

“Not by Fire but by Ice” 
by Robert W Felix

The Next Ice Age is on its Way?

There is no Significant Global Warming?

Climate and Weather Cycles:

Four Decades of Climate Model Failures:

CO2 concentration is dangerously low for life on Earth:

Glaciers Growing:

Let’s put adults in charge before they kill all of our cattle:

Russian Scientist expects cooling to start soon:

Viv Forbes is a geologist and economic analyst, who farms in Australia.


Anonymous said...

But first we have to get rid of the billionaire eugenicists/corporations who sit behind the daily dirge of global boiling disasters.

Peter said...

Oh, NO!!!

First, we have Guterres gut-gnawing yet unproven claim of "global boiling" - and now we have the proverbial more factual "freezing of the balls off a brass monkey!" And this without also considering the 100% probability of either, a coronal mass ejection (not much more than rather very inconvenient) or, a meteoroid that could end life on Earth as we know it - certainly both, albeit probably unlikely at the same time.

But meantime, let's entertain the equivalent of economic hara-kiri in the mistaken belief that we can prevent the first of the aforementioned and, the more likely other things in the universe that could steal wee Greta's and (purportedly) our children's future. Never mind the shorter term issue that Grant Robertson's economic incompetence has emptied our larder and there's also 100% probabilities of volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunami, tornadoes and wild fires etc.

But thanks Viv, for highlighting the issue and bringing a bit of reality to what the evidence suggests more likely lies ahead. Either way, I'm not going to lose sleep over it, unless some idiot(s) prevail(s) and think(s) we/they can materially alter it all by us all getting on our bikes and limiting our food production to the detriment of our economic and daily livelihoods.

Rob Beechey said...

And as the weather returns to its cyclic inevitability without mankind’s influence, we will reflect on the madmen that spread unsubstantiated nonsense leading to the destruction of coal fired energy and oil plants.
Climate Alarmists have been amongst us for thousands of years. The Inca sacrifices, witch burning, the fear of falling off the edge of the world were all beliefs treated seriously by those that chose to follow and not question.
The ignorant succumb to climate Alarmism today as the Incas applauded their high priests execution of human sacrifices.
In 200 years time as the human race protects itself from the natural cycle of advancing ice and snow, with poor crops from diminishing levels of the precious building block of life, CO2, they may reflect on the madness that drove their forebears to destroy reliable energy plants in the name of their misguided religion.

Anonymous said...

The apparently abrupt transition from warm to freezing may be tentatively explained as ‘pole shift’, where the whole lithosphere rotates/moves over the magmasphere. The poles are thus relocated and a major meltdown occurs from the previous poles. With a range of geological and disaster effects attending. This would obviously have a severe effect on whatever civilisations may be present at that time, possibly destroying them without trace. However some areas may well remain largely undamaged, leaving some scope for a slow recovery, with vague myths of catastrophe remaining in human memory.