Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Cam Slater: Last Poll of the Year

Labour is in the doldrums in the last poll of the year. It is the Roy Morgan though, but it does show how much Kiwis have fallen out of love with Labour.

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for November 2023 shows new Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) with a majority of 58% support for November, up 5.2% points from the mid-October election.

Support for National was virtually unchanged at 37.5%, down 0.6% points from the election, while support for ACT increased 3.9% points to 12.5% and support for NZ First was up 1.9% points to 8%.

In November support for the defeated Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition was at only 36%, down 5.6% points from the election.

Support for Labour dropped 5.9% points to 21% (the lowest ever recorded in a Roy Morgan Poll). However, support for the Greens increased 0.9% points to 12.5% while support for the Maori Party was down 0.6% points to 2.5%.

A further 6% of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament, up 0.4% points from the election. This includes 3.5% (up 1.3% points) who support The Opportunities Party, 0.5% (up 0.3% points) who support the New Conservatives and a further 2% who support other minor parties including Democracy NZ, New Zealand Loyal, NewZeal and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
Roy Morgan

Support for the Greens has increased because Labour is so rubbish. This is a normal pattern for a post-election poll, but it does show support growing for two of the governing parties. National is going to have to do some soul-searching to find the reason why they are not growing. Perhaps Christopher Luxon will look into a mirror to discover the reason.

The survey results for November would lead to 74 seats (up six seats) being won by the current National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition compared to only 48 seats (down seven seats) for the Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Opposition.

For the governing coalition National’s support would win 48 seats (down one seat), support for ACT would equal 16 seats (up one seat) and the support for NZ First would mean 10 seats (up two seats).

For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 27 seats (down seven seats), Greens support would mean 16 seats (up one seat) and the Maori Party would win 5 seats (down one seat)
Roy Morgan

That is pretty grim reading for Labour. But they’ll resort to form, calling this a rogue poll.

Kiwis will now head into the political dead zone otherwise known as the summer holidays and Labour will be hoping for a bump in the first polls of the new year. They’ll probably get one because they’ll have stayed quiet and not enraged anyone.

Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.


robert Arthur said...

Act and NZ First were voted in by NZers grasping the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction at maorification without incurring cancellation. Luxon seems too accomodating of maori coddling to attract strong suppoert.

Anonymous said...

Some of the lefties must be seeing a glimmer of reality.
What we really need is a poll about what people think of:
The Public Interest Journalism Fund.
The amount of bias in the MSM reporting.
Whether the political reporting we get is balanced.
Whether there is a race-based agenda promoted by the Labour Party.