Frank Newman: Roy Morgan poll - National/Act retain their lead

National and Act would win enough seats to form a government, according to the latest Roy Morgan poll. That is despite their combined support falling 1.5% in June. National was down 1% at 39% and Act down 0.5% at 9.5%.

Labour support has recovered 2% at 33.5%, but most of that rise has come at the expense of the Greens who are down 1.5% at 10%. The Maori Party support increased 0.5%, to 1.5%. Support for parties not in Parliament increased from 6% to 6.5%.

Assuming this poll result translates to the 2023 election, National and Act could form the next government with 62 seats, 50 and 12 respectively.  A Labour/Greens/Maori Party block would have 58 seats (assuming the Maori Party retains its electorate seat). Labour would have 43 (22 seats less than it currently has), the Green 13 (10) and the Maori Party 2 (unchanged). 

The boost for Labour may have been due to favourable press for the Prime Minister while on a series of overseas trips, or may simply be a statistical variation given confidence in the government was down 2.5 points in June and “a massive 36.5pts from a year ago in June 2021”.

Only 39% (down 1% point) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 51.5% (up 1.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

“Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is strongest amongst young women aged 18-49 at 56.5% compared to only 30.5% support for National/ Act NZ. However, for women aged 50+ support is at 50.5% for National/Act NZ and is still ahead of Labour/Greens on 44.5%.”

“The Maori Party attracts only 1% support from men including 1% support from men aged 18-49 but only 0.5% support of men aged 50+.”

The Greens had its greatest support from those aged between 18 to 49 (14% women and 15% men). In the over 50 age group 8% of women supported the Greens and only 2% of men.

There is now a clearly emerging pattern that National and Act are favourites to win the 2023 general election. The problem for Labour is that public sentiment towards it becomes more hostile. Crime is now reaching into neighbourhoods and local communities, the government is refusing to accept there is an emerging crisis in health care despite warnings from health professionals, and there are darkening clouds over the economy.  These are all vote-influencing issues.

View RoyMorgan Poll HERE >>>

Frank Newman, is a political commentator, investment analyst, and a former local body councillor.