Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Mike Hosking: Poll still shows change is coming

I think the biggest loser out of last night's TVNZ poll is TVNZ who spent a decent chunk of money on a poll that essentially told us nothing happened.

National and ACT still form a government and the current Government are out of office.

It shows, I suspect, a malaise we are currently in. We're a year out from a vote, and not everyone is gripped by the minutiae of politics.

They also polled on the republic. Once again a bust, no one wants one. Either the number that actively say they don’t want one or the large number of people who don’t care. Chris Luxon put it well when asked yesterday, he said no one has raised it with him.

Guess why. It's not an issue.

It’s a good example of the disconnect between the media and the real world. When the Queen dies, the media thinks of what the next angle is. Given her death isn't changing, all you are left with is the republic question. The poll result tells us we have better things to think about.

There are some suggestions the Prime Minister's offshore presence might have played better for them. I think the reality is that we are over that. If you were ever enamoured with Ardern on the world stage, that has worn well and truly thin, as it’s become apparent that a lot of what she does amounts to literally nothing.

When was the last time you chatted about the Christchurch Call? When was the last time you got excited about the United Nations? She is a wonk and detached from day to day New Zealand life who loves two places to be, schools where kids still like her and overseas where the heat is off.

I suppose if you are a Labour supporter you could argue it's still a race. My pick is as more and more get focussed the issue Labour faces will only get worse.

You could also argue the small parties, all on 1 percent, all add up to about 7 percent. The trouble with that is it’s a wasted vote. Under MMP, you get 5 percent, win a seat, or it all gets put in the bin.

Anyway, the trend we have seen all year is intact, a change of government is coming.

But for the bill payer of the poll, a night of drama was sadly missing.

Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings.

1 comment:

ross meurant said...

If Labour "gift" Maori constituencies to Maori Party, an overhang will ensure and that by my maths suggests that ACT will not only need National, but also a third party.

At the moment, that third party looms as Rt Hon Winston who is saying the right things on the husting i.e. he opposes the "separatism" of Labour.

Commendable. But opposing and changing i.e. abolishing the power assets and rights grab legislation which is already in the books, is another thing altogether.

I once penned a speech for Winston to abolish Maori seats- following the "Tight Five" desertion from NZFirst.

I was present when Winston delivered the speech and sadly he seemed to lose his place in the script before time was up and the punch line could be delivered.

There is also the SFO appeal yet to be determined.

As we used to be able to say: "It aint over till the fat lady sings."