Friday, September 30, 2022

Ian Bradford: Is carbon dioxide really causing global warming?


It is generally agreed that there has been a global temperature rise of just 1 Deg C since the Industrial Revolution 170 years ago.

Various scientists have done research on how this 1 deg C rise has occurred by studying ice cores. Syun-Ichi Akasofu from the International Arctic Centre at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, found that there seems to be an approximately linear increase in temperature since about 1800 to the present.  Naturally, there will be fluctuations of temperature with some periods of warming and some of cooling during that time, but mathematicians can fit a straight line graph to the values. In other words, there is no general upwards trend nor any general downwards trend in temperatures. Akasofu’s research was supported by further studies by Frizsche et al in 2006 , Polyakov et al, Burroughs, and Tarrand and Nordli.


On the basis that the 1 degree rise is approximately linear we can find an approximate temperature rise per year. That is simply 1/170  =  0.006 deg C

Now there has been a substantial rise in CO2 levels since then end of the Second World War in 1945. However, the linear trend in temperature rise has continued, according to Akasofu and others. 

The COP 22 Climate Conference in 2016 settled on the World trying to stop a temperature rise of 0.5 deg C by the year 2030. 

From 2016 to 2030 is 14 years.  If we make the assumption that the steady rate of temperature rise will continue then after another 14 years we would expect a rise of just  

14  x  0.006 =   0.08 deg C  Which is hardly significant.  It seems a temperature rise of  0.5 deg C  is simply scare tactics. 

Why has there been a 1 deg C rise in temperature since the Industrial Revolution? Probably because we are still warming from coming out of the Little Ice Age which ended about 1850. 






1900       291ppm                

1940       310                

1960       317                 

1970       325                 

1980       332                 

1990       354                   

2000       370                    

2022       410                    


These figures show that since 1900, CO2 concentrations have  increased from 291 ppm to 410 today.  That gives an increase of 119 ppm over the 122 years or approximately 1ppm per year. But of course the first 50 years gave an increase of just 24ppm and the years since then an increase of 95ppm. Taking the last 72 years since 1950 with an increase of 95ppm, that gives a rate of 1.3ppm increase per year. At this rate by the year 2100 we could expect the CO2 concentration to be 511ppm.

Of course, if we keep  increasing the rate to the year 2100, the concentration will be more than 511ppm, but since we can easily tolerate much higher levels of CO 2 there is nothing to worry about. 

In general it is accepted that a doubling of CO2 levels to 820ppm will give a temperature rise of no more than about 1 deg C.  But that may never happen as we shall see later, that we may be entering a period of substantial cooling.  



Two episodes of global warming and two episodes of global cooling occurred during the 20th century.

1880 to 1915 Cool Period. Atmospheric temperature measurements, glacier fluctuations, and oxygen isotopes from Greenland ice cores record a cool period from about 1880 to 1915, reaching a low about 1890. Glaciers advanced, some nearly to terminal positions reached during the Little Ice Age about 400 years ago. During this period, global temperatures were about 0.9 deg C lower than at present. 

1915 to 1945 a warm period. This COULD NOT BE CAUSED BY ATMOSPHERIC CO2Global temperatures rose steadily in the 1920’s, 1930’s and early 1940’s. By the mid 1940’s global temperatures were about 0.5 deg C warmer than they had been at the turn of the century. More high temperature records for the century were recorded in the 1930’s than in any other decade of the 20th century. Glaciers during this period retreated and in general, followed the warming climate pattern. The warming during this period could not have been caused by human made CO2.

From 1940 to 1976 a period of global cooling while Carbon Dioxide levels  rose

Source: Modified Wikimedia Commons. Author: NASA

Note the period on the graph from, 1940 to 1976. The blue line gives an average. This fall in temperature occurred while carbon Dioxide levels in the atmosphere were rising.  This is not exactly what the climate alarmists are claiming. They are telling us that as CO2 levels rise, the temperature of the Earth rises.   

Many of the world’s glaciers advanced during this time and recovered a great deal of the ice lost during the 1915 to 1945 warm period. 

1977 to 1998 Global Warming. The global cooling that prevailed from 1945 to 1977 ended abruptly in 1977 when the Pacific Ocean shifted from its cool mode to its warm mode in a single year and global temperatures began to rise, initiating two decades of global warming. This sudden reversal of climate in 1977 has been called the “Great Pacific Climate Shift”, because it happened so abruptly.  The global warming during the period 1977 to 1998 has received much attention in the news media and represents the period now popularly called “Global Warming.”   After 1998 Temperatures stopped rising and slowly fell.



Graph shows the alternate periods of warming and cooling from 1860 to 2000. The black line shows COconcentrations.  There is a sharp rise in CO2 particularly during the last cool period shown in blue. The first warming period shown in orange had little to do with COas the amount of CO 2 then was very small. 


1999 to 2009 Global Cooling. No global warming has occurred above the 1998 level. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO) reflects Pacific sea surface temperatures. In 1999 the PDO flipped from the warm mode into the cool mode, and satellite imagery confirms that the cool mode has become firmly entrenched since then. Global cooling has deepened significantly in the past few years.  Here we are again, steep rise in COlevels but the earth is cooling.  

The graph below shows the temperatures of the Earth from 1992 to about 2013.  The red squigly line shows the yearly temperatures and the green line the average. The green line shows a small fall in temperatures over the period 1998 to 2013. 

Professor Ross McKitrick from the University of Guelph in Canada studied land and ocean temperatures since 1850. He compared this to satellite data from 1979 to 2014. By plotting trends in this data he has concluded that global warming has been on a pause for 19 years. 


Source: Wikimedia Commons. Author: Isonomia  (2)


This graph shows the cooling since about 2001, then a sudden decrease in temperature around 2008. All this time, CO2 levels were rising.  

This graph was an embarrassment to the climate alarmists, because CO2 levels were still climbing steadily.  This is why a change was made from global warming to climate change. This new term covered everything. 

Since 2014 we have had many scientists state that we are now in a serious cooling phase and many think this is the prelude to us entering another Little Ice Age.  They predict it could be on us as early as 2030. 

What is causing the lowering of the Earth’s Temperature? 

Scientists believe the Sun was at its weakest in 2019 in the last 100 years. This is known as the solar minimum. The year 2020 marked the beginning of the 25th eleven year cycle. Solar activity is measured by the number of sunspots at any given time and was very low in 2020. The sun had no sunspots for around 71% of 2020 through to September 2020. That compares with 77% in 2019. 

Scientists say that the sun may be going through a long period of decreased activity known as the Modern Grand Solar Minimum from 2020 to 2053. The last time such an event occurred was during the Maunder Minimum from 1645 AD to 1710 AD, which was part of what is now known as the Little Ice Age, when Earth went through a series of elongated cold periods in the Medieval period.  

The surface temperatures of the Earth will go down noticeably during the Modern Grand Solar Minimum due to a 70% reduction in solar magnetic activity. Variations in solar irradiance influences the transport of solar energy towards the Earth’s surface.  


During the Maunder Minimum in the middle ages, the solar irradiance went down by 0.22 per cent. This brought down the temperature in the Northern Hemisphere especially in Europe by between 1 and 1.5 degrees C and led to frozen rivers, long cold winters and cold summers. 


Not only does less irradiance from the sun reach the earth but there is another reason for the cooling too. Less sunspots, which are areas of magnetic activity, means more cosmic rays can enter the Earth’s atmosphere. Galactic cosmic rays are atom fragments such as protons, electrons, and atomic nuclei. We know they can be created in supernovas. There may be other sources available for cosmic ray creation. Cosmic rays constantly rain down on the Earth, and while the high energy primary rays collide with atoms in the Earth’s upper atmosphere and rarely make it through to the ground, secondary particles are ejected from these collisions and do reach us on the ground. With low sun activity, these cosmic rays seed more high clouds which further prevent the Sun’s radiation from reaching the Earth. A research paper by scientist Valentian Zarkhova predicts that the Earth’s temperature may plummet by 1 deg C during the current Grand Solar Minimum. The possible decrease in temperature has led some scientists to predict that the solar minimum cooling might cause a Little Ice Age. 



The sun on the left is without sunspots, that on the right with- the dark spots. 


We shall end this  with a few headlines:

The headline from Moscow Lomonosove State University (Press Release)

Diminishing solar activity may bring new Ice Age by 2030

The arrival of intense cold similar to the one that raged during the Little Ice Age which froze the world during the 17th century and in the beginning of the 18th century, is expected in the years 2030-2040. These conclusions were presented by Professor V. Zharkova from Northumbria University during the national Astronomy meeting in Llandudno in Wales.

This came from Germany in 2017

Solar physicists from Germany have issued a warning that Europe  is about to enter a mini ice age in the next few years.

Although most scientists agree that the Little Ice Age took Place, many dispute its extent. Some insist it was localised over the North Atlantic region. But now there are dozens of studies that show it was in fact a global event.  That should make us worry. 

These comments from Astrophysicist Piers Corbyn :

“Contrary to what politicians are trying to foist on you, a new mini ice age- a new Maunder Minimum- has already occurred. We are now plunging now into a deep mini ice age and there is no way out. For the next 20 years it’s going to get colder and colder on average.” Says Corbyn.  “Carbon Dioxide levels do not have any impact –I repeat, any impact on climate” says Piers. “The CO2 theory is wrong from the start.  The fact is that the sun rules to the sea temperature, and the sea temperature rules the climate.”  


“THE EARTH IS ACTUALLY COOLING,” NASA says due to low sun activity: Record plunge despite rising CO2


The Northern Hemisphere has already experienced record low temperatures. The North consists mainly of landmass which responds to temperature change more quickly. The Southern Hemisphere is mostly sea which has a huge volume, and takes much longer to respond to temperature changes, so for the time being Southern Hemisphere countries are insulated by the sea.


We shall just have to wait and see the outcome. In the meantime, the climate alarmists are still pushing the global warming agenda. 

Ian Bradford, a science graduate, is a former teacher, lawyer, farmer and keen sportsman, who is writing a book about the fraud of anthropogenic climate change.


Rob Beechey said...

Ian Bradford cleverly debunks manmade climate change alarmism with logic. The mischievous, Ardern Govt sponsored MSM (State Controlled Broadcasting) refuses to allow debate and therefore guilty of burdening New Zealand with billions of dollars of unnecessary debt to solve a problem that doesn’t exist.

Cox Lake said...

Excellent post using common sense and first principles. Rare combination today.
You state “In general it is accepted that a doubling of CO2 levels to 820ppm will give a temperature rise of no more than about 1 deg C.”
I understood that as temperature increases then so does the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere - not the other way around, which is what climate alarmists use in their argument.
Your comments appreciated.

Doug Longmire said...


There has been a lot of rhetoric about reducing New Zealand’s Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions.

For example – the Prime Minister, Comrade Jacinda Ardern has declared a New Zealand “climate emergency” and has recently publicly stated that reducing our (NZ’s) CO2 emissions is a “matter of life and death.”
Amidst all this posturing and State of Fear tactics – what is the truth?
What are the facts regarding New Zealand’s contribution to human caused CO2 emissions?
Using figures from the United Nations IPCC:-
• Global CO2 levels are currently 400 ppm (parts per million)
• Each year, an extra 2 ppm is generated by human activity.
• NZ contributes 0.17% of that 2 ppm each year.
What do these numbers actually mean?
Just how big is New Zealand’s contribution?
Okay – let’s illustrate just how much this is:
Picture a very large bathtub, full of water.
The bathtub contains 500 liters (500,000 mils) of water.
This represents the total global atmosphere. In this example:-
• Current CO2 levels, 400ppm is 200 mils.(= Global CO2)
• Human activity per year (2 ppm) is 1.0 mil
• New Zealand contribution (0.17%) per year is 0.0017 mils per year
• This is 1/30 of one drop in 500 liters (500,000 mils) per year.
This is ONE drop every 30 YEARS.
At this rate it would take 30 YEARS for NZ’s contribution to add just ONE drop to the FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND mils in bathtub which represents the total global atmosphere.
It would take 600 years for NZ’s CO2 to increase global CO2 from 400 ppm to 401 ppm.
As a pharmacist, accustomed to measuring out medicines, I can state that ONE Thirtieth (1/30) of ONE drop is too small to measure. It is 1/600th of ONE mil.
1/30 of one drop In a 1500,000 mil bathtub of water is effectively ZERO .
At this level, NOTHING that New Zealand does will have ANY EFFECT on Global CO2 levels..
New Zealand’s CO2 emissions are infinitesimal compared to America, India, China etc.

In New Zealand, this is NOT a “Matter of Life and Death”

It is NOT a “Climate emergency.”

Doug Longmire said...

Also, what it will cost us:-
The Climate Control Commission’s recommendations have been costed out by NZIER.
Full compliance to reach their "net zero" target has been costed out. The cost to NZ’s economy will be $86b per year.
That is 86 BILLION DOLLARS per year – EVERY year. $86,000,000,000 per year.
That works out to $17,000 per year per head of population.
This is fast track, train wreck, economic suicide.
Translated – a typical four person family will be paying 4 x $17,000 = $68,000 per year, EVERY year just to meet the dreamland CCC’s recommendations. This is a THOUSAND DOLLARS A WEEK per person, every week.
Bear in mind that this is only to stop NZ’s emissions, which are only 0.17% (= 1/600th) of total global human emissions, which in turn are only 3% of total global CO2 emissions. 3% x 0.17% = 0.0051% !! i.e. NZ emissions are basically ZERO !!. So – goodbye Kiwi’s

FreeMack said...

My understanding was that CO2 level increases follow temperature increases. They do not cause warming, they are caused by warming.
This would mean we are heading for lower CO2 levels which will be bad for plants and therefore us.