Now there’s doom polling: the act of spending an excessive amount of time reading news sites waiting for the next poll to see if it is worse than the last one.
And that is what the Labour Party is doing right now, especially after a fifth poll. The Newshub/Reid Research poll delivered a body blow to Labour’s electoral chances.
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National and ACT are on track to comfortably form a Government, according to our latest Newshub-Reid Research poll.
Despite every effort to capture the public with pledges like free dental, Labour has tanked to numbers not seen since Andrew Little was Labour leader.
Labour needs to break the glass and hit the panic button as this is its crisis poll.
The party’s support has collapsed into the terrifying twenties at 26.8 percent. That is a catastrophic 5.5-point fall from our last poll.
On the other side, National will be sounding the celebration siren. It is on 40.9 percent, up 4.3 points.
The Greens are gathering steam. They are on 12.3 percent up 2.7 points.
But ACT’s conga line of conspiracy candidates quitting has knocked it down. It’s fallen 2 points to 10.1 percent.
Newshub
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New Zealand First is still flirting with the 5 percent threshold at 4.6 percent. That is so, so close to a comeback.
Meanwhile, Te Pati Maori is at 3.1 percent and the others are nowhere close to what’s needed to enter Parliament.
Count the seats and the right-wash becomes clearer. The race is won at 61 seats.
National’s 53 and ACT’s 13 get them there with some to spare. Together, they would have 66 seats.
Newshub
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Unless you are a political tragic, you really don’t appreciate just how devastating it is to have five polls in the space of one week land that deliver bad news.
It is devastating to your caucus, devastating to your volunteers, devastating to your fundraising prospects and kneecaps any momentum that you may have had.
Five bad polls are the political equivalent of concrete shoes.
And that’s where Labour finds themselves now: heaved overboard, wearing concrete shoes, and with no ability to tread water. They are sinking inexorably towards a record loss.
And my, how we will celebrate!
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. This article was first published HERE
3 comments:
Seems to me a basic flaw of our sytem is that there is no incentive for an Opposition to oppose foolish policies as these enhance their chances of elction. Presumably it was thinking along these line that allowed all the absurd pro Treaty nonsense to get through. It is now so embedded will be hard to get rid of, especially with an army of potentially violent nutter supporters of the modern Treaty farce.
“And my, how we will celebrate!”
Bring on the election! Can’t wait to vote. Will be there 2 Oct when advance voting opens and glued to the tv come evening time Oct 14. Never wanted to see the back of an NZ govt so badly.
Spot on Cam - yes we shall celebrate Big Time - but not with sausage rolls...but with lashings of "told-you-so trifle" and "Be-Gone-Comrades" Balloons. The Good Ship New Zealand has been scuppered, and is slowly sinking in the quagmire of Bad Policies, media miasma, public apathy and Fabian Socialism (which favours gradualism, like the frog in the pot scenario). There is a lingering bad smell from the rotten-to-the-core alliance that is smothering this country. Oh for a breath of fresh air!!!
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