Tough times await a new Right-of-Centre coalition
Three different opinion polls in quick succession have signalled the Hipkins Labour-led government is crashing to defeat at next month’s election. As many as 34 of its members could lose their seats.
All three polls — the Post-Freshwater, Morgan, and Newshub-Reid— showed Labour below 30%.
Moreover, the Newshub-Reid had National reaching 40.9%.
As the NZ Herald noted, the last time Labour was polling at this level, Andrew Little was its leader.
The pundits have been left pondering why Labour’s support – according to the pollsters – has faded almost overnight. Labour had been polling competitively as recently as April and May.
That, of course, was when a string of ministers jumped (or were tossed) overboard.
The Green Party may be having a quiet smile to itself: according to the Newshub-Reid sampling, its support is rising, and at the election would yield 16 seats, its largest caucus in history. On the other hand, if those votes come from erstwhile onetime Labour supporters the shift in allegiances might just underline the depth of disillusion with what the Labour Party has done as a governing party.
Even though the National Party has been effective in Opposition, to the point where it is shaping up as the next government, the news media is not yet accepting it as the ministry-in-waiting, and instead treats its leader more harshly than it does his opponent. Chris Hipkins gets praised for what he has achieved, despite having presided over a string of disastrous decisions and failed policies, including co-governance, huge deficits, and what in previous eras would have been regarded as a balance-of-payments crisis.
As cabinet ministers grow more desperate to hang on to the baubles of office, voters should expect more wilder actions and commitments out of the Beehive.
While the portents are now favouring a victory for the right-of-centre parties, any cheers from their supporters will be muted: the opening of the books after the election will reveal a measure of the long haul back to economic equilibrium that awaits the NZ economy, just as it confronted John Key and Bill English back in 2008.
Nicola Willis may have to take on a challenge much the same as the one which confronted English, at that time. She might even call on Key and English for advice.
Certainly putting the economy to rights, along with the mounting impact of climate change, will be a tough test for any new administration.
A rapid economic turnaround will be called for if this country is to halt a flood of skilled people leaving for brighter prospects elsewhere.
Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton
As the NZ Herald noted, the last time Labour was polling at this level, Andrew Little was its leader.
The pundits have been left pondering why Labour’s support – according to the pollsters – has faded almost overnight. Labour had been polling competitively as recently as April and May.
That, of course, was when a string of ministers jumped (or were tossed) overboard.
The Green Party may be having a quiet smile to itself: according to the Newshub-Reid sampling, its support is rising, and at the election would yield 16 seats, its largest caucus in history. On the other hand, if those votes come from erstwhile onetime Labour supporters the shift in allegiances might just underline the depth of disillusion with what the Labour Party has done as a governing party.
Even though the National Party has been effective in Opposition, to the point where it is shaping up as the next government, the news media is not yet accepting it as the ministry-in-waiting, and instead treats its leader more harshly than it does his opponent. Chris Hipkins gets praised for what he has achieved, despite having presided over a string of disastrous decisions and failed policies, including co-governance, huge deficits, and what in previous eras would have been regarded as a balance-of-payments crisis.
As cabinet ministers grow more desperate to hang on to the baubles of office, voters should expect more wilder actions and commitments out of the Beehive.
While the portents are now favouring a victory for the right-of-centre parties, any cheers from their supporters will be muted: the opening of the books after the election will reveal a measure of the long haul back to economic equilibrium that awaits the NZ economy, just as it confronted John Key and Bill English back in 2008.
Nicola Willis may have to take on a challenge much the same as the one which confronted English, at that time. She might even call on Key and English for advice.
Certainly putting the economy to rights, along with the mounting impact of climate change, will be a tough test for any new administration.
A rapid economic turnaround will be called for if this country is to halt a flood of skilled people leaving for brighter prospects elsewhere.
Point of Order is a blog focused on politics and the economy run by veteran newspaper reporters Bob Edlin and Ian Templeton
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