Cam Slater: NZ First Overtakes Act in Latest Poll

NZ First has overtaken the Act Party in the latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll. Imagine what the government would have looked like had NZ First got 8.1% in the election. There would be several more freedom candidates there.

But while NZ First’s support has risen, both National’s and Act’s have dropped. There is still enough to govern, but it shows the public support is there for Winston Peters hammering the media and grasping Maori elites.

Support for Christopher Luxon has fallen in the first poll since he took office, dropping three points in the preferred prime minister poll to 30 per cent, down from 33 per cent in November.

This is still relatively high for Luxon, who spent most of his nearly two years as opposition leader scoring between 20 and 29 per cent in the poll.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has risen four points to 22 per cent, up from 18 per cent last month, but still below the 27 per cent scored in October.

The figures are from the Curia poll for corporate clients. Curia polls for the National Party and conducts the popular monthly Taxpayers’ Union poll, which is currently on hiatus.

The big winners of the new parliamentary term are NZ First and Te Pati Maori, which have both seen increased support.

NZ First has overtaken Act to be the second most popular party in the coalition, polling 8.1 per cent, up two points from 6 per cent in the November poll. Act has fallen 2 points to 6.2 per cent.

Te Pati Maori polled 5 per cent, up 1.6 points from 3.4 per cent in November. The Greens have registered a big drop, falling three points to 10.8 per cent.

The major parties are fairly steady. National is down half a point to 36.5, and Labour is up half a point to 28.8 per cent.

Running the numbers through the Electoral Commission’s seat calculator would give National 46 seats, enough to govern with NZ First’s 10 seats and Act’s 8.

Labour would have 36 seats, the Greens 14 and Te Pati Maori 6.

NZ Herald

This poll shows that Winston Peters is on to a winner in attacking the media and Maori elites. He is reading the mood of the public better than anyone else, especially the media, who seem to be off piste with regard to public opinion.

Luxon continues to struggle with favourability, a measure that looks at the number of people who positively favour someone, minus the number who negatively favour someone.

His favourability is -1 per cent, with 39 per cent of people favouring him and 40 per cent negatively favouring him. This compares with Hipkins, whose net favourability is +9 per cent, comprised of 42 per cent positive ratings and 33 per cent negative ratings.

The polling period was December 3-5. National had a tough first week in the job, rocked by images of Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters taking swipes at the media.

NZ Herald

Note the swipe wee Thomas Coughlan has at Winston Peters. Thomas needs to pull his head out of his own fundament, get out of the Wellington bubble and start realising that Winston Peters and NZ First are rising in the polls precisely because he is attacking media dolts like him.

Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the BFD - where this article was sourced.